NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
The Phil Knight Invitational will make its long-awaited return starting Thursday. This iteration of the tournament will more closely resemble the inaugural 2017 tournament – 16 teams, two separate brackets – than it will the 2019 edition – four teams, one day. The common denominator with all of the different versions of the Phil Knight Invitational is great basketball programs and high-level competition.
This particular tournament makes up one half of the Phil Knight Feast Week tournaments. The Phil Knight Legacy tournament will occur across the same days, but it’s a completely separate bracket from the Phil Knight Invitational. The Legacy tournament is headlined by Duke and Gonzaga while the Phil Knight Invitational – the one we’ll cover here – will feature North Carolina and Michigan State, among others.
2022 Phil Knight Invitational Bracket
Official bracket per RoseQuarter
2022 Phil Knight Invitational Schedule
The 2022 Phil Knight Invitational is set to take place Thursday through Sunday. Below, you’ll see the schedule with start times, TV channels and projected spreads from Kenpom for the first-round games.
Thursday, Nov. 24
- Game 1: North Carolina (-12) vs. Portland | 1 p.m. ET | ESPN
- Game 2: Villanova (-3) vs. Iowa State | 3:30 p.m. ET | ESPN2
- Game 3: UConn (-4) vs. Oregon | 8 p.m. ET | ESPN2
- Game 4: Michigan State vs. Alabama (-2) | 7:30 p.m. ET | ESPN2
Friday, Nov. 25
- Consolation Game 1: 2:30 p.m. ET | ESPNU
- Semifinal Game 1: 5 p.m. ET | ESPN
- Semifinal Game 2: 10 p.m. ET | ESPN2 or ESPNU
- Consolation Game 2: 12:30 AM ET (Saturday) | ESPN2
Sunday, Nov. 27
- Third-place game: 3:30 p.m. ET | ESPN
- Championship game: 10 p.m. ET | ESPN
- Seventh-place game: Time TBD | ESPN Family of Networks (TBD)
- Fifth-place game: Time TBD | ESPN Family of Networks (TBD)
2022 Phil Knight Invitational Teams
Alabama
Strengths: Through its first four games, Alabama is the best in the nation at offensive rebounding (48%) and defending two-point field goals (33%). The Crimson Tide also have the number two overall effective field goal percentage defense in the country per Kenpom (35%).
Weaknesses: Alabama has struggled with turnovers to start the season, ranking outside the top-290 in offensive turnover percentage (23%) and forced turnover percentage (16%).
Connecticut
Strengths: Big Man Adama Sanogo leads the way for UConn and its top-40 offensive rebounding percentage, free throw rate and two-point field goal percentage on offense.
Weaknesses: While the Huskies haven’t shown any glaring weaknesses thus far, all five of their games have come at home against teams ranked 199 or worse at Kenpom.
Iowa State
Strengths: The Cyclones’ defense has carried them early in the year as they rank number one in the country in forced turnover percentage (36%) and fifth in overall effective field goal percentage defense (38%).
Weaknesses: Through three games, Iowa State is shooting an abysmal 27% from beyond the arc and getting the ball stolen from them at an 11% clip.
Michigan State
Strengths: The Spartans have wins over Kentucky and Villanova already in addition to a one-point, neutral-court loss to Gonzaga. They’re not very deep, but they’re experienced and very balanced on offense as illustrated by their 65% assist rate.
Weaknesses: Michigan State ranks worse than 300th in bench minutes and they foul at an above average rate. The Spartans are also still searching for a bona fide go-to guy on offense to lead their balanced attack.
North Carolina
Strengths: North Carolina doesn’t turn the ball over, is ninth in the nation in free throw rate and is shooting 57% from inside the arc.
Weaknesses: The Tar Heels haven’t been able to force turnovers at a high rate so far this season (16%) and they’ve struggled from three-point range (29%).
Oregon
Strengths: The Ducks block shots at the highest rate in the country (21%), defend without fouling and rebound their misses at a top-15 clip (39%).
Weaknesses: Oregon has seldom seen the ball go through the hoop from beyond the arc and the free throw line as they’re shooting just 26% and 61% respectively.
Portland
Strengths: Portland plays fast, shoots a lot of threes, gets to the free throw line a ton and assists on 57% of its made field goals.
Weaknesses: The Pilots haven’t been strong with the ball this season as they’ve had it stolen on 10% of their offensive possessions. Conversely, they’ve only stolen the ball from opponents on 5% of possessions.
Villanova
Strengths: As always, Villanova has some of the best ball security in the country and sinks free throws at an unbelievably high percentage.
Weaknesses: The Wildcats have been brutal defensively as they’ve failed to force turnovers, block shots or stop opponents from draining threes.
Phil Knight Invitational Past Winners
The Phil Knight Invitational started with a 16-team, two-bracket tournament in 2017 (called the PK80), made its return in 2019 with a four-team, one-day event, and now it’s back again in 2022 with an eight-team, three-day bracket.
In 2017, Duke defeated Florida in the championship of the PK80 Motion Bracket, and Michigan State took out North Carolina to win the Victory Bracket.
2022 Phil Knight Invitational Betting Odds
(per FanDuel Sportsbook)
- North Carolina +220
- Michigan State +380
- Alabama +410
- Connecticut +650
- Villanova +700
- Oregon +900
- Iowa State +1200
- Portland +19000
2022 Phil Knight Invitational Best Bets
North Carolina to Win the Phil Knight Invitational
(+220)
Despite the Tar Heels’ No. 1 ranking in the AP polls, I’m not convinced they’re the best team in this tournament, and I’m almost certain they’re not the best team in the country. That said, this bracket shapes up quite nicely for North Carolina. They have a first-round game in which they’ll likely be favored by double-digits, and if they win that, they’ll have a semifinal game against either Iowa State or Villanova. According to Kenpom, three of the brackets’ worst four teams reside in Carolina’s half, meaning they wouldn’t have to play the top competition until the championship game. From an actual basketball perspective, this team is almost the same exact team that ran through the NCAA tournament last season, so they have valuable experience winning in this type of setting. The Tar Heels have strong starting guards in RJ Davis and Caleb Love, plus a load down low in Armando Bacot, who’s coming off a 19-point, 23-rebound effort in a victory over a good James Madison team.
