NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/3)
Alex Christenson
We’re going to break down the players who have seen the biggest fall in Average Draft Position (ADP) in Underdog Fantasy best ball drafts from 2023 to early 2024 drafts. (Use promo code FTN to register on Underdog for a 100% deposit match up to $100.)
Check out our other piece on the biggest early ADP risers in best ball.
This article uses data from Best Ball Mania IV drafts as of Sept. 6, 2023 and compares to Big Board drafts as of March 2, 2024.
There are a lot of players drafted last year who are not being drafted this year. This article will only highlight a few of those players. Most of the focus will be on players who are still being drafted in 2024 – just a lot lower than they were in 2023.
It pains me to put Austin Ekeler here. I’m the President and Co-Founder of the Austin Ekeler Fan Club, along with FTN’s Editor-in-Chief Daniel Kelley. I remember singing Ekeler’s praises for several years before his breakout since he popped in all the advanced metrics. But all good things must come to a close, and that’s exactly what we saw happen in 2023 with Ekeler.
Tyler’s take: He has fallen from No. 6 to No. 81. That drop might be a bit too dramatic. Later-career Ekeler can still catch passes, and I’d imagine he’ll still be efficient in the red zone. The bigger question is whether he’ll even have the opportunities – and for which team.
Travis Kelce was still a great stat-producer last year – 93 catches, 984 yards, 5 TDs – but he moved from “performs like an elite WR1” to “performs like an elite TE1” on the production scale, which bumped him from a top-six overall pick to now being in the fourth round. In other words, he’s still an elite fantasy TE, but he’s not an elite fantasy player. The decline has arrived.
Tyler’s take: This dip feels accurate. He’s not head and shoulders above the rest of the TEs now, and considering how much younger all of the others are, this seems like a reasonable landing spot for late-career Kelce.
Tony Pollard was an early second round pick in 2023, but he fell all the way to 81st overall in early 2024 best ball drafts after he failed to deliver on his expanded role in Dallas. But he still topped 1,000 rushing yards and had over 300 total touches. Did he just lose explosiveness because of his broken leg from the 2022 playoffs?
Tyler’s take: This was the most shocking ADP drop for me. I think he’s a smash value at his current ADP.
Justin Fields went from 40th overall to 82nd. There’s just a lot of uncertainty around where he’ll play next year. Once he’s locked into a location, I expect his ADP to rise. His ADP of 40 last year was also largely tied to where DJ Moore was being drafted and how easy it was to stack the two. With no clear teammate to stack with, Fields is just dangling right now.
Tyler’s take: His ADP will almost certainly rise once his situation clears up.
Joe Mixon has fallen from 38th overall to 86th. He’s on the later side of his career (will be 28 when the season starts), but he’s not on a dramatic downturn yet or anything. He had over 1,400 total yards, over 300 touches and 12 TDs last year.
Tyler’s take: Chase Brown was used more down the stretch last season, which is perhaps where some Mixon trepidation is coming from, but I think he’s going a couple of rounds too late.
Derrick Henry’s raw power still let him crush it in 2023, but drafters are clearly nervous about his age (now over 30) and free agency status. Where will he be? Will he still be driven into the ground at his age? At a minimum, it’s easy to see Henry being a TD-maker no matter what in 2024, which explains why he’s still being drafted in the top 60.
Tyler’s take: To be honest, I’m not sure what to make of Henry. He has all the attributes you don’t want – age, wear and tear, an uncertain future – but he’s also Derrick Freakin’ Henry, so, you know, he has that going for him. My approach has evolved to just avoid players like this unless it’s a double-digit round pick.
Dameon Pierce is still being drafted (196th overall), but it’s a long way from the No. 55 overall from last year. He was replaced by Devin Singletary, of all people, and now there’s rumors of Saquon Barkley to the Texans.
Tyler’s take: He’s not a bad late-round Zero RB target for 2024. He’ll rise up boards if Houston clears free agency and the draft without a new RB, but that feels unlikely.
From a Round 5 pick and starting RB to a cut. Alexander Mattison isn’t even being drafted.
Tyler’s take: Mattison will land somewhere as a backup and will have value as a waiver wire target at some point in the season if the starter goes down. He’s still only 25. But no need to draft him right now.
Skyy Moore was pick No. 86 to end BBMIV in September. Now he’s not even being drafted. He’s still young (only 23), but his complete dud in 2023 was brutal. In a year KC needed someone to step up at WR, Moore wasn’t able to get it done.
Tyler’s take: Moore is at least still young and is at least still tied to Patrick Mahomes, so maybe you take him once every 100-150 drafts.
J.K. Dobbins tore his Achilles in Week 1 and just can’t seem to stay healthy. He fell from pick No. 63 last year to No. 192 as of early March 2024. He’s an impending free agent, which, coupled with his injury, makes his 2024 outlook even more of an unknown. If he goes back to the Ravens, it all looks a little brighter given Baltimore’s elite rushing offensive scheme.
Tyler’s take: He’s a good late-round Zero or Hero RB target right now.
Rashod Bateman has fallen from pick 98 all the way to 201. But then this video just happened, which is probably just coachspeak, but hell will freeze over before the fantasy community gives up on a prospect they love while coaches say nice things about them – no matter how bad the on-field output has been.
Tyler’s take: I think his ADP fell too far and will rise some, though certainly not anywhere close to 2023 levels.
He’s getting older, suffered a major injury last year and his teammate (Isaiah Likely) is a smashing success. These are all driving forces behind Mark Andrews going from a late second round pick to a mid-fifth.
Tyler’s take: The top tier of TEs fell numerous rounds from 2023 to 2024 due to the combination of them not being as dominant and the pool of viable TEs filling up more. This new ADP feels right.
The 31+ year old tight end who joined a terrible offense wasn’t a smash in fantasy. Who could have guessed that?
Tyler’s take: I’m not buying even at this price – 154 overall, up from 52 last year. Darren Waller is probably cooked. Give me younger players in that range.
