MLB Best Bets – Free (Wednesday 7/24)
Josh Gross
I love this offense, love the Detroit playmakers, and love the potential of the Lions this season. But I don’t love Gibbs’ ADP, which would only only justified if Montgomery did not exist. In Underdog drafts, you need to start three wide receivers each week. By selecting Gibbs, you are passing on the change at an elite Round 2 pass catcher. If you combine the missed wide receiver opportunity cost with Gibbs still residing in a time-share backfield, I find myself avoiding Gibbs unless his ADP drops significantly. Last year’s RB15 going as the RB4 is a hard pass for me.
I love Jordan Love. I love the Green Bay Packers this year.
I hate Jayden Reed’s ADP.
There are so many variables working against Reed as current Underdog ADP of 55.9 overall. He is coming off an insanely efficient rookie season where he placed fifth among all wideouts in touchdowns (10) while finishing just 35th in receptions (64). Reed has robust target competition in Romeo Doubs (8 touchdowns), Dontavion Wicks (4 touchdowns to end the season) and a fully healthy Christian Watson (12 touchdowns in 23 career games).
The biggest concern of all? Per FTN charting data, Reed was on the field for 504 of the 629 plays where they had three WRs on the field, but only 16 of the 327 Packers offensive plays where they had two WRs on the field. That’s a very concerning stat for the first Green Bay wide receiver going off the board. There is a very likely outcome where Reed is not the top fantasy receiver for the Packers this year, yet he is being drafted before team WR1 such as Calvin Ridley (Tennessee), Rashee Rice (Kansas City), Keon Coleman/Curtis Samuel (Buffalo) or even Watson himself.
Reed has a strong rookie season and is an integral part of an explosive Green Bay offense, but he is a better real-life NFL player than fantasy football option. With the other Green Bay wideouts such as Watson (WR41), Doubs (WR54) and Wicks (WR57) all available at least one round later, the fantasy community is simply too high on Jayden Reed.
There is a lot of support for Zamir White as a top-15 fantasy running back option, but there are much better options around his current ADP 86.9.
Zamir White is a tough runner who lacks burst and acceleration. He has gained support as a potential breakout fantasy RB because of a small, four-game sample size to end last season. But even in those four contests, his fantasy finishes were only RB12, RB16, RB16 and RB20.
White is a solid running back, but he is not a strong pass catcher. He totaled only 17 receptions in college, and only 15 receptions last season. The Raiders added Alexander Mattison and Adam Hill of the Las Vegas Review-Journal also mentioned the possibility of goal-line packages for first-round tight end pick Brock Bowers.
The Raiders projected win total is just 6.5 at DraftKings, and they reside in a tough AFC West division. White is going substantially earlier than last year’s touchdown leader Raheem Mostert, Chargers lead running back Gus Edwards and equivalent to productive lead Arizona running back James Conner. If you start with multiple wide receivers in best ball, I would not trust a top-two running back roster spot to Zamir White.
