DVOA - General NFL Analysis Archives - Page 6 of 22 - FTN (For The Numbers)

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The Data

How to read the chart:

Team – the team that played the Lions in their previous game
nOpponent – the Team’s next opponent
tDVOA – team DVOA rank
oDVOA – opponent DVOA rank
Result – result of the game from the Team’s perspective

For example, the Rams were the first team to face off with Detroit this year. They are now 21st in DVOA in 2024 and faced off with the Cardinals (now 19th in DVOA). The Rams lost 41-10.

On the season, teams are 0-6 with a -103 point differential in the game after playing Detroit this season (including Dallas’ loss to San Francisco after their bye). Two of these teams are better by current DVOA ranks than their opponent, so we’re denoting those teams as favorites. These two teams are 0-2 with a combined -19 point differential, while underdogs (worse current DVOA than their opponent) are 0-4 with a -84 point differential. They’re getting slaughtered!

The effect wasn’t quite as strong in the previous two seasons, but it’s still there. Favorites were a combined 9-4 (+91), but underdogs were a combined 2-10 (-103). Overall, as shown in the bottom right corner of the chart, favorites are still outperforming their opponents the week after playing Detroit, but not by nearly as much as underdogs are losing. And overall, teams are 11-20 with a -115 point differential in the game after playing the Lions since the beginning of their turnaround (i.e. when they found their physical identity).

Why the effect exists

If the effect exists because Detroit is just that damn physical, we should be able to quantify their physicality to some degree… We can, and it starts with adjusted line yards on both sides of the ball.

In 2024, Detroit is first in adjusted line yards created and ninth in adjusted line yards allowed. It should consequently come as no surprise that they’re first in offensive rush DVOA and eighth in defensive rush DVOA.

Thanks to StatsHub, we can get even more detailed. The Lions are:

4th in rushing success rate
8th in power run success rate
10th in avoided tackles
9th in yards after contact per attempt

So it’s not just their run blocking; their ballcarriers David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs are following suit.

Physicality is more than just the run game, but it would be impossible to dominate a game physically without this type of performance in the run game. So we need to compare these numbers to their 2023 and 2022 numbers.

2023:

ALY (OFF)	ALY (DEF)	rDVOA (O)	rDVOA (D)	Success%	PwrSucc%	AvTackles	YACo/Att
1st	6th	4th	1st	14th	18th	7th	5th

2022 (full season):

ALY (OFF)	ALY (DEF)	rDVOA (O)	rDVOA (D)	Success%	PwrSucc%	AvTackles	YACo/Att
7th	18th	12th	25th	18th	19th	28th	31st

There’s a massive difference between Detroit in 2023 and 2024 vs. 2022. Detroit was decisively less physical, which makes sense given the fact that the Dan Campbell Effect was weakest that year (favorites went 3-0). However, in each of the last two years, Detroit has been at or near the top of every metric that helps us quantify physicality.

Who else might have the same effect?

We’ve established that the effect exists and we’ve found supporting evidence that it exists because of their physicality. Thus, it makes sense that the effect should exist for other physical teams, as well.

There are three other teams in the top 10 of both adjusted line yards created and adjusted line yards allowed:

Buffalo
Baltimore
Kansas City

All three are also in the top 10 of both offensive and defensive rush DVOA, so they meet the criteria with flying colors.

At the very least, there are signs that underdogs are struggling the week after playing these teams just like they do after playing Detroit. It’s also worth noting that on average, the favorites in the chart above are much bigger favorites than the underdogs are underdogs. So the “success” of the favorites isn’t exactly surprising even if there’s a hangover effect from these teams, too.

With each coming week, we’ll get more data. This week, we should keep a close eye on:

Las Vegas (playing Bengals after playing Chiefs)
Cleveland (playing Chargers after playing Ravens)
Tennessee (playing Patriots after playing Lions)
Seattle (playing Rams after playing Bills)

By the same methodology, Tennessee and Seattle are narrow favorites while the Raiders and Browns are underdogs.