DVOA - General NFL Analysis Archives - Page 16 of 22 - FTN (For The Numbers)

Bettings

Fantasy
DVOA
DFS
Betting

Last week, I took a look at Route DVOA for receivers. This is DVOA based on value per route run rather than value per target, to account for the fact that earning targets by getting open is a skill. Now we’re going to flip that around and look at our DVOA vs. Types of Receivers numbers, except these will be based on Route DVOA rather than usual receiving DVOA. We first looked at this back in Week 6.

In addition, for the first time during a season, I have data on Route DVOA covering wide receivers lined up wide compared to wide receivers lined up in the slot. There are some big differences on those!

For each type of receiver, we’ll look at the Top 5, the Bottom 5, and then teams where there’s a significant difference between regular DVOA and Route DVOA.

Two important notes here about the Route DVOA numbers. First, the opponent adjustments and normalization are based on position: wide receiver, tight end, and running back. Unlike last time I did this, I normalized things so that the average for each receiving position is 0%. The range of Route DVOA is larger than regular DVOA, but the average for WR1, WR2, and WR3 is all 0%.

Second, the Route DVOA numbers are much better correlated with the numbers we run on the DVOA vs. Types of Receivers page for fantasy use: passes and yards per game to each position. That makes sense, because the more routes run, the more targets and yards there are going to be.

vs. WR1

Team	Reg DVOA	Rk	Rte DVOA	Rk	Pa/G	Yd/G
NE	-32.8%	2	-54.3%	1	7.3	52.1
NYJ	-29.0%	4	-43.4%	2	7.0	56.3
BUF	-9.4%	12	-32.0%	3	6.8	51.6
CIN	-18.3%	6	-29.9%	4	7.9	65.0
NO	-22.0%	5	-27.5%	5	7.6	51.6

When we first looked at this a few weeks ago, there was an insane split where the Patriots were No. 1 against WR1 and 31st or 32nd against every other type of receiver. It’s not that bad anymore but it’s still pretty bad. The Patrios are 22nd against WR2 and dead last against Other WR.

Buffalo has one of the biggest differences between standard DVOA vs. receivers on WR1 and this new Route DVOA on WR1. That makes sense, as they’re near the bottom of the league in opponent-adjusted yards allowed per game to WR1. (Kansas City is actually last at 51.2, and they are seventh in Route DVOA.) Other teams with a big difference include Green Bay (26th regular, 15th route) and Atlanta (25th regular, 16th route). In the other direction, the Philadelphia Eagles are 14th in regular DVOA vs. WR1 but 22nd in Route DVOA. The Eagles allow the most targets per game to WR1 at 11.8. No other defense is above 10.1 targets per game.

Cleveland, which is No. 1 on WR1 in regular DVOA drops to ninth in Route DVOA.

Here are the worst teams in Route DVOA when covering WR1.

Team	Reg DVOA	Rk	Rte DVOA	Rk	Pa/G	Yd/G
TEN	38.0%	30	52.6%	32	8.7	85.7
WAS	39.0%	32	49.3%	31	8.7	101.4
ARI	38.2%	31	45.1%	30	7.8	85.6
NYG	17.3%	27	43.9%	29	8.9	87.1
CAR	12.5%	24	37.5%	28	7.5	74.2

The Titans’ secondary is WOOF. We’ll see in a moment that the Titans are also 32nd in covering WR2 and they are 32nd in covering all outside wide receivers.

vs. WR2

Team	Reg DVOA	Rk	Rte DVOA	Rk	Pa/G	Yd/G
NYJ	-22.3%	4	-38.3%	1	3.6	25.4
SF	-32.9%	2	-31.3%	2	5.4	42.4
DAL	-21.9%	6	-26.5%	3	4.6	46.6
BAL	-40.9%	1	-18.5%	4	6.8	36.7
HOU	-5.7%	13	-18.1%	5	5.0	52.1

Mostly the same teams on both lists, with Houston improving significantly when we look at Route DVOA instead of regular DVOA covering WR2. Cincinnati also improves a lot (from 23rd to ninth) with Route DVOA covering WR2. In the other direction, we have the New York Giants, who go from fifth in regular DVOA covering WR2 to 21st in Route DVOA. Green Bay goes from 14th in regular DVOA to 27th in Route DVOA. Here are the five worst defenses in Route DVOA covering WR2:

Team	Reg DVOA	Rk	Rte DVOA	Rk	Pa/G	Yd/G
TEN	30.5%	30	39.7%	32	6.3	59.0
PHI	33.1%	31	33.1%	31	6.9	53.9
KC	13.3%	24	28.5%	30	5.7	54.1
BUF	43.7%	32	25.9%	29	4.9	52.3
MIN	17.2%	26	23.0%	28	5.4	51.3

Intersting how many successful teams appear on this list, although I guess you can’t really call the Bills defense “successful” this season.

vs. Other WR

Team	Reg DVOA	Rk	Rte DVOA	Rk	Pa/G	Yd/G
NYJ	-24.5%	2	-35.2%	1	3.5	21.9
GB	-21.8%	5	-25.8%	2	3.8	20.1
BUF	-12.7%	7	-19.1%	3	6.2	43.9
IND	1.4%	17	-15.2%	4	4.1	35.2
CAR	-27.1%	1	-15.0%	5	4.6	27.1

So, you may have noticed that the New York Jets show up in the top two for all three types of wide receivers. That is a really, really good secondary. We’ll see that again in a moment when I run outside vs. slot numbers.

Green Bay and Buffalo, two of the worst defenses against WR2s, show up among the top defenses against Other WRs. Kansas City, on the other hand, is one of the big fallers with Route DVOA, going from third against Other WR in standard DVOA to 18th in Route DVOA. Another big faller is Miami, which goes from eighth to 24th. And a third is Minnesota…

Team	Reg DVOA	Rk	Rte DVOA	Rk	Pa/G	Yd/G
NE	37.8%	32	44.9%	32	6.5	58.4
TB	22.8%	30	29.2%	31	6.4	55.0
TEN	12.6%	26	18.3%	30	7.1	55.7
MIN	-6.3%	12	15.2%	29	8.1	52.9
LAC	12.8%	27	12.9%	28	7.4	50.5

Note that these numbers do not include Thursday night’s game, when the other non-starting wide receivers basically disappeared for the Steelers despite these Patriots numbers from previous games.

WR Wide vs. Slot

OK, now for something new. Let’s look at wide receivers when lined up wide compared to when lined up in the slot. This is for wide receivers only, not tight ends or running backs lined up in wide receiver positions. Sorry, I don’t have the pass or yards per game numbers here.

Team	WR Wide	Rk	WR Slot	Rk
NYJ	-46.3%	1	-37.5%	2
DAL	-22.0%	2	-2.9%	17
CIN	-21.9%	3	5.3%	24
ATL	-21.3%	4	24.0%	30
BUF	-20.5%	5	4.1%	22

Most of the teams that are on the top against wide receivers are not at the top against slot receivers. The Jets are a big exception. Again, their secondary has been fantastic this year. Another exception is Baltimore, which ranks in the top 10 for both wide and slot receivers. The No. 1 team against slot receivers will really shock you, however.

Team	WR Wide	Rk	WR Slot	Rk
CAR	30.3%	29	-47.8%	1
NYJ	-46.3%	1	-37.5%	2
CHI	1.9%	15	-31.6%	3
IND	6.9%	20	-27.5%	4
BAL	-12.9%	8	-27.1%	5

Troy Hill is Carolina’s main slot corner and surprise, surprise, surprise. That is a heck of a good number for the Panthers. Things haven’t been as good on the outside, especially with Jaycee Horn battling injuries yet again this season. Also, you may not be shocked to learn that Kenny Moore is good for the Colts!

Here are the worst teams against wide receivers and slot receivers.

Team	WR Wide	Rk	WR Slot	Rk
TEN	54.3%	32	3.3%	21
ARI	39.2%	31	-22.7%	7
WAS	30.6%	30	13.8%	29
CAR	30.3%	29	-47.8%	1
PHI	22.7%	28	6.3%	25

Team	WR Wide	Rk	WR Slot	Rk
NYG	9.8%	23	32.1%	32
DET	7.8%	22	29.0%	31
ATL	-21.3%	4	24.0%	30
WAS	30.6%	30	13.8%	29
SEA	3.6%	17	12.1%	28

vs. TE

Let’s finish up with the tight ends and running backs.

Team	Reg DVOA	Rk	Rte DVOA	Rk	Pa/G	Yd/G
CLE	-37.2%	2	-43.9%	1	3.5	21.5
NYG	-38.2%	1	-27.4%	2	6.0	39.7
SF	-29.3%	3	-24.8%	3	7.0	40.7
PIT	-23.7%	4	-22.5%	4	7.0	52.7
BAL	-10.9%	8	-22.4%	5	6.5	44.9

Team	Reg DVOA	Rk	Rte DVOA	Rk	Pa/G	Yd/G
DEN	26.7%	32	31.0%	32	7.3	70.9
CIN	25.2%	30	28.4%	31	7.9	71.1
LAR	21.3%	29	19.4%	30	7.2	61.5
ATL	-5.0%	12	19.0%	29	8.2	64.2
HOU	-5.7%	11	15.8%	28	8.9	66.8

vs. RB

Team	Reg DVOA	Rk	Rte DVOA	Rk	Pa/G	Yd/G
NO	-44.1%	1	-45.3%	1	5.0	24.4
KC	-9.7%	11	-30.1%	2	4.3	21.9
TB	-20.6%	6	-30.1%	3	5.0	27.9
MIA	-4.9%	16	-28.8%	4	4.1	26.8
PHI	-19.4%	8	-27.1%	5	6.5	31.0

Team	Reg DVOA	Rk	Rte DVOA	Rk	Pa/G	Yd/G
CHI	28.8%	30	52.0%	32	7.6	57.6
LAC	33.8%	32	36.0%	31	7.7	51.9
LV	15.6%	24	27.5%	30	5.9	36.7
NYJ	11.3%	22	23.8%	29	7.2	40.2
NE	26.1%	29	20.5%	28	5.5	31.1

Here’s the whole list of teams and Route DVOA ratings for your enjoyment!