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Bettings

Welcome to Week 2 of our DVOA-based picks.

I’m going to do the same thing here that I used to do over at Football Outsiders. I’m picking (almost) every game straight up and against the spread. I’m also doing over-under totals, which were added to the picks last year. This does not make this advice to bet every single game! You’ve got to pick and choose and be smart about it. But for people in office pools, we pick every game.

Every week I will post picks on Thursday morning for subscribers. Come back here on Sunday morning and I will update the picks before the 1pm games begin.

The picks are listed with a confidence order and the picks with the strongest confidence will be colored blue. Those are picks with a difference of at least 7 points (straight up) or 3 points (spread and total). I do not make picks where the difference between the projection and the actual line is 0.1 points or lower.

Picks this week account for a few injuries including Cooper Kupp, Diontae Johnson, Cam Heyward, and Seattle offensive tackles.

UPDATED: Sunday morning, 11:40am EDT

ORDER	HOME	AWAY	LINE (HOME)	PROJ LINE	SPREAD PICK	CONF. ORDER	STRAIGHT PICK	CONF. ORDER	TOTAL	PROJ TOTAL	TOTAL PICK	CONF. ORDER
1	PHI	MIN	-6	-6.4	PHI	11	PHI	4	49.0	47.9	Under	10
2	TEN	LAC	2.5	4.7	LAC	3	LAC	7	45.5	45.9	Over	15
3	ATL	GB	-3	-4.5	ATL	4	ATL	8	40.0	45.3	Over	3
4	HOU	IND	-1	-0.7	IND	14	HOU	16	40.0	41.6	Over	8
5	DET	SEA	-4.5	-4.9	DET	12	DET	6	47.0	47.2	Over	16
6	TB	CHI	-2.5	-2.8	TB	13	TB	12	40.0	44.0	Over	6
7	BUF	LV	-7.5	-7.3	LV	15	BUF	3	47.0	45.2	Under	7
8	JAX	KC	3.5	2.4	JAX	8	KC	13	50.5	49.9	Under	12
9	CIN	BAL	-3.5	-2.3	BAL	7	CIN	14	45.5	44.7	Under	11
10	ARI	NYG	4	4.4	NYG	10	NYG	9	39.5	44.5	Over	4
11	LAR	SF	7	10.7	SF	1	SF	1	45.0	44.5	Under	13
12	DAL	NYJ	-8.5	-8.5	—	—	DAL	2	38.5	46.4	Over	1
13	DEN	WAS	-4	-3.5	WAS	9	DEN	11	38.5	42.6	Over	5
14	NE	MIA	2.5	1.1	NE	6	MIA	15	45.5	44.1	Under	9
15	CAR	NO	3	5.3	NO	2	NO	5	39.5	39.1	Under	14
16	PIT	CLE	2.5	3.9	CLE	5	CLE	10	38.5	43.9	Over	2

W-L record through Week 1

Spread: 8-7
Straight: 10-5
Totals: 6-9