Welcome to Week 2 of our DVOA-based picks.
I’m going to do the same thing here that I used to do over at Football Outsiders. I’m picking (almost) every game straight up and against the spread. I’m also doing over-under totals, which were added to the picks last year. This does not make this advice to bet every single game! You’ve got to pick and choose and be smart about it. But for people in office pools, we pick every game.
Every week I will post picks on Thursday morning for subscribers. Come back here on Sunday morning and I will update the picks before the 1pm games begin.
The picks are listed with a confidence order and the picks with the strongest confidence will be colored blue. Those are picks with a difference of at least 7 points (straight up) or 3 points (spread and total). I do not make picks where the difference between the projection and the actual line is 0.1 points or lower.
Picks this week account for a few injuries including Cooper Kupp, Diontae Johnson, Cam Heyward, and Seattle offensive tackles.
UPDATED: Sunday morning, 11:40am EDT
ORDER | HOME | AWAY | LINE (HOME) | PROJ LINE | SPREAD PICK | CONF. ORDER | STRAIGHT PICK | CONF. ORDER | TOTAL | PROJ TOTAL | TOTAL PICK | CONF. ORDER |
1 | PHI | MIN | -6 | -6.4 | PHI | 11 | PHI | 4 | 49.0 | 47.9 | Under | 10 |
2 | TEN | LAC | 2.5 | 4.7 | LAC | 3 | LAC | 7 | 45.5 | 45.9 | Over | 15 |
3 | ATL | GB | -3 | -4.5 | ATL | 4 | ATL | 8 | 40.0 | 45.3 | Over | 3 |
4 | HOU | IND | -1 | -0.7 | IND | 14 | HOU | 16 | 40.0 | 41.6 | Over | 8 |
5 | DET | SEA | -4.5 | -4.9 | DET | 12 | DET | 6 | 47.0 | 47.2 | Over | 16 |
6 | TB | CHI | -2.5 | -2.8 | TB | 13 | TB | 12 | 40.0 | 44.0 | Over | 6 |
7 | BUF | LV | -7.5 | -7.3 | LV | 15 | BUF | 3 | 47.0 | 45.2 | Under | 7 |
8 | JAX | KC | 3.5 | 2.4 | JAX | 8 | KC | 13 | 50.5 | 49.9 | Under | 12 |
9 | CIN | BAL | -3.5 | -2.3 | BAL | 7 | CIN | 14 | 45.5 | 44.7 | Under | 11 |
10 | ARI | NYG | 4 | 4.4 | NYG | 10 | NYG | 9 | 39.5 | 44.5 | Over | 4 |
11 | LAR | SF | 7 | 10.7 | SF | 1 | SF | 1 | 45.0 | 44.5 | Under | 13 |
12 | DAL | NYJ | -8.5 | -8.5 | — | — | DAL | 2 | 38.5 | 46.4 | Over | 1 |
13 | DEN | WAS | -4 | -3.5 | WAS | 9 | DEN | 11 | 38.5 | 42.6 | Over | 5 |
14 | NE | MIA | 2.5 | 1.1 | NE | 6 | MIA | 15 | 45.5 | 44.1 | Under | 9 |
15 | CAR | NO | 3 | 5.3 | NO | 2 | NO | 5 | 39.5 | 39.1 | Under | 14 |
16 | PIT | CLE | 2.5 | 3.9 | CLE | 5 | CLE | 10 | 38.5 | 43.9 | Over | 2 |