DVOA - General NFL Analysis Archives - Page 15 of 22 - FTN (For The Numbers)

Bettings

Fantasy
DVOA
DFS
Betting

Welcome to Week 16 of our DVOA-based picks.

Each week, I pick (almost) every game straight up and against the spread, as well as over-under totals. This does not make this advice to bet every single game! You’ve got to pick and choose and be smart about it. But for people in office pools, we pick every game.

Every week I will post picks on Thursday morning for subscribers. Come back here on Sunday morning and I will update the picks before the 1pm games begin.

The picks are listed with a confidence order and the picks with the strongest confidence will be colored blue. Those are picks with a difference of at least 7 points (straight up) or 3 points (spread and total). I do not make picks where the difference between the projection and the actual line is 0.1 points or lower.

ORDER	HOME	AWAY	LINE (HOME)	PROJ LINE	SPREAD PICK	CONF. ORDER	STRAIGHT PICK	CONF. ORDER	TOTAL	PROJ TOTAL	TOTAL PICK	CONF. ORDER
1	LAR	NO	-4	-2.8	NO	6	LAR	10	46	48.7	Over	5
2	PIT	CIN	3	2.6	PIT	13	CIN	11	38.5	40.1	Over	11
3	LAC	BUF	12	12.9	BUF	10	BUF	2	44	47.3	Over	4
4	ATL	IND	-2.5	0.6	IND	2	IND	16	44.5	46.2	Over	8
5	CAR	GB	3.5	6.7	GB	1	GB	5	38.5	41.3	Over	3
6	HOU	CLE	3	2.1	HOU	11	CLE	13	40	39	Under	13
7	TEN	SEA	3	3	—	—	SEA	9	42	42.8	Over	14
8	NYJ	WAS	-3	-1.8	WAS	5	NYJ	14	37	35.2	Under	7
9	MIN	DET	2.5	3.7	DET	7	DET	8	47.5	43.9	Under	2
10	TB	JAX	1	0.8	TB	14	JAX	15	43	42.8	Over	12
11	MIA	DAL	-1	-2.3	MIA	4	MIA	12	48.5	46.5	Under	6
12	CHI	ARI	-3.5	-5.2	CHI	3	CHI	6	42	42.2	Over	15
13	DEN	NE	-7	-7.6	DEN	12	DEN	4	36.5	37.7	Over	10
14	KC	LV	-10.5	-9.6	LV	9	KC	3	40.5	40.5	—	—
15	PHI	NYG	-13.5	-13.5	—	—	PHI	1	43	38.7	Under	1
16	SF	BAL	-6	-5	BAL	8	SF	7	46.5	48.1	Over	9

W-L record through Week 15

Spread: 92-105-12 (Blue picks: 16-8-2)
Straight: 147-72 (Blue picks: 51-18)
Totals: 98-114-3 (Blue picks: 27-34-1)