I hope everyone enjoyed their pack of games this Christmas weekend. It was a great one if you happened to live in Baltimore or Las Vegas; perhaps a little less so in Kansas City or San Francisco. The NFL has made Christmas Day it’s latest outpost in its attempts to dominate the sports world every single day of the year, attempting to steal the day from the NBA with a hell of a triple-header. And with 29 million viewers tuning in for Chiefs-Raiders and 27 million more for Ravens-49ers, it’s fair to say they succeeded. They promise not to do it again next year, when Christmas falls on a Wednesday, and as the NFL notoriously hates attention and money, I believe them.
For NFL teams, Christmas comes in April with the NFL draft, and some teams have been very, very good this year. Fans across the league, especially those in Houston, Los Angeles and Detroit, have been celebrating draft classes that they hope shape their franchises for years to come. We’re not here to talk about the lumps of coal in your stocking (though uh, Bryce Young has the faint whiff of charred carbon), but the studs and stars that have made splashes in their debut appearances. Everyone is here, from highly touted first-rounders to Day 3 picks that fell through the cracks. We have combed the ranks of the NFL to find our All-Rookie Team — the best of the best of the youngest of the young.
Offense
Quarterback
C.J. Stroud’s concussion kept him from seriously challenging from any all-time rookie DYAR records. In a 17-game season, he was on pace for 1,257 passing DYAR; the rookie record is 1,302 for Dak Prescott. 296 passing DYAR in the last two weeks of the season is feasible – he had 258 in his 470-yard passing day against Tampa Bay in November, after all – but extremely unlikely. His 20.5% passing DVOA is “only” the fifth most of all time, and pressing 1983 Dan Marino’s 33.8% mark is essentially impossible.
And seeing as how we’re talking about Stroud’s comparison against the all-time greats, it’s clear that he has lapped the field this season. You don’t want to over-emphasize Stroud “falling” all the way to the second overall pick, but there were concerns on how he’d adapt outside of Ohio State’s scheme. He didn’t have the clear athleticism of Bryce Young or Anthony Richardson and wasn’t considered particularly creative when things broke down. Great when on-schedule, not so hot when things went south. Well, so far, that hasn’t been the case. Stroud picked up Bobby Slowik’s offensive scheme almost immediately and became comfortable executing it. He’s chucking the ball over the intermediate and deep parts of the field – he’s fourth with a 9.5 aDOT, and first among the growing coterie of passers in Shannahan-esque systems. You’d expect rookie quarterbacks in this system to lean on a lot of short passes and YAC, but no – Stroud’s been making big throws up and down the field basically from the first moment he stepped on the field.
He would be the fifth rookie ever to finish in the top five in DVOA, joining Prescott, Marino, Ben Roethlisberger and Matt Ryan. It’s far too early to write off Young and the rest of this year’s rookie quarterback class, but Stroud has already arrived.
Running Back
This is, by far, the most difficult of the skill positions to pick, with five candidates with at least 70 rushing attempts this season.
Spears and Charbonnet have both been good mid-round finds and look to be, at worst, useful parts of committees going forward. But this comes down to a battle of what you value more – efficiency or volume.
If De’Von Achane had played all season long, he’d be a runaway winner, pun very much intended. First in rushing DVOA by a mile for players with at least 50 carries, sixth in rushing DYAR overall. A full 20.8% of his rushes have gone for 10 or more yards, making him the most explosive running back with at least 50 rushes this season. Put that up over a full year, and you’re in some rarified air historically. But Achane hasn’t done it over a full year; he’s missed six games with knee and toe injuries and has only hit double-digit carries in three games. Racking up that much rushing value on limited carries is impressive, certainly, but Achane is also being helped by how good the Dolphins offense is overall. Raheem Mostert leads the league in DVOA (30.1%) and is second in DYAR (323); Achane’s numbers are impressive regardless, but that sky-high DVOA is an artifact of both a small sample size and a strong supporting cast.
The context at least opens the door to consider the two first-round running backs. Jahmyr Gibbs finally caught Achane’s DYAR total this week, and he’s playing a more significant role in Detroit’s offense, with double-digit touches in all but two games this year in his timeshare with David Montgomery. Gibbs does have enough carries to qualify for leaderboards, where his 5.7 yards per attempt leads the league. In terms of raw yardage, however, Bijan Robinson has been the most productive of the rookie backs. And he’s putting up his impressive numbers in an offense that is made solely out of bells and whistles, rather than the actually thought-through and functional systems in Miami and Detroit. It’s one thing to put up big numbers in a top-10 offense. It’s another entirely to do it while languishing in the bottom 10.
You can make an argument for any of the three. I’ll split the difference between efficiency and volume and go with Jahmyr Gibbs, who has been getting better and better as the year has gone along. His versatility gives him the edge over Achane for me; he’s a better route runner and pass-catcher than Achane, even if he hasn’t been quite as explosive this season.
Wide Receivers
It’s been a hell of a year for rookie wideouts. Guys like Jordan Addison, Jayden Reed and Josh Downs have had good years as regulars in the lineup, and there’s another half-dozen guys who have found useful roles around the league. There are three, however, who have separated themselves from the pack. Picking between them would be difficult, but we’re running a three-wide offense, so we don’t have to chose between them. Hurray for punting on hard decisions!
Puka Nacuawas the talk of the league through the first two weeks, catching 25 passes for 266 yards and serving as Los Angeles’ lead receiver while Cooper Kupp was out with injury. That pace was obviously not sustainable, but Nacua has rounded out his game as the year has gone on, going from checkdown merchant to a more complete player. He needs just 147 receiving yards over Los Angeles’ last two games to break Bill Groman’s rookie record of 1,473. Not bad for a fifth-round pick.
Tank Dell‘s season ended with a fractured fibula in Week 13, and his durability will be an ongoing concern for the 165-pound wideout. But the combination of Stroud and Dell should set the Texans’ passing game up for the foreseeable future, with Dell’s blazing speed and solid route running being a big part of why Houston has been so successful throwing the ball down the field. His 15.1 yards per reception lead all rookies. Not bad for a third-round pick.
But until this past weekend, both of them trailed in receiving DYAR to Rashee Rice, who is quite possibly the only reliable wide receiver the Chiefs have this season. Rice has been a menace on short passes with plenty of YAC. Entering Week 16, he was second in the league with 209 DYAR on short passes and was in the top 15 in YAC above expectation. In a season where Kansas City has had trouble having receivers line up properly, much less catch passes, having Rice as a rapidly-developing safety net has been a massive relief. Not bad for a second-round pick.
The record for total DYAR by a full rookie wide receiver class is 1,263, set in 2014 – the year of Odell Beckham, Mike Evans, Jordan Matthews and so forth. 2023 gets the benefit of an extra game, but led by Nacua, Rice and Dell, they have a real chance of taking that record down.
Tight End
The generally received wisdom is that rookie tight ends never perform. The truth is, they very rarely perform, with only 17 rookie tight ends in history hitting triple-digit receiving DYAR in their debut seasons.
Make it 18. Sam LaPortais on pace to break Keith Jackson’s rookie record of 81 receptions by a tight end and has outside chances to catch Mike Ditka’s 12 touchdowns and 1,076 yards, as well. He needs seven catches for 300 yards and three scores to do all three, and while he’ll probably come up short on at least the yardage marks, being in that conversation is impressive enough as it is. Rob Gronkowki’s record 243 DYAR is also probably out of his reach; LaPorta is sitting at an impressive 143 but Gronk is Gronk.
Between LaPorta and Gibbs, the Lions found a couple building-block-type playmakers early in the draft. And we may not be done calling their name just yet…
Offensive Tackles
As good as the skill positions are, the class of offensive linemen has left much to be desired. No one has really stood out as a complete package right out of the box. Whereas our skill position players could form the basis of a serious contender, the line is more of a mishmash of flashes and potential. That being said, to make the all-rookie team, all you have to do is be better than the rest of your class, and we can surely find players who stand out at something, right?
For example, we can acknowledge that Cleveland’s Dawand Jones is still a work in progress as a run blocker, while also noting that he hit the ground running as a very solid pass blocker right out of the gates. The fourth-round pick was not supposed to start at right tackle for the Browns this year, but the 6-foot-8 375-pound Brobdingnagian lineman stepped in when Jack Conklin injured his knee in Week 1 and has more than handled his own since then. Before his own season ended with a knee injury, Jones was holding his own against the T.J. Watts of the world; surrendering just 16 blown blocks and being charged with just three sacks, per SIS. We’ll throw in Chicago’s Darnell Wright as well; he stepped in as a starter from Day 1 and leads SIS’s points saved metric among rookie tackles, from volume if nothing else. Works for me, even if that’s technically two right tackles.
Offensive Guards
The Bills’ O’Cyrus Torrence and the Rams’ Steve Avila get the nod here. Both have started since Week 1, both have played over 1,000 snaps, and neither have gotten their quarterback horribly destroyed yet. Matthew Bergeron is the other rookie guard with over 1,000 snaps this season, but I’ll take Torrence’s 2.1% blown block rate and Avila’s 3.3% over Bergeron’s 3.8%. This is, admittedly, mostly acknowledge for being there and not dragging down the line too much more than particular standout play from either man, but these are two playoff-contending teams in the top five in adjusted line yards and adjusted sack rate, and they’re doing it while trusting a rookie to play all the snaps inside. Good enough for me.
Center
There are only three rookie centers who have seen more than 150 snaps this season. The Texans’ Jarrett Patterson flashed a little early, but he went on IR in October with a fractured fibula. The Giants’ John Michael Schmitz is part of the sieve-like line that is threatening to set sack records. So congratulations, Joe Tippmann, you win by default! Tippmann moved from right guard to center halfway through the year as the Jets line became more and more decimated with injuries and has played more or less like you would expect a backup interior lineman to play. He has been far from the biggest problem on the Jets’ offense, at any rate.
Defense
Edge Rusher
It might be wrong, in a vacuum, for the Texans to have traded back up in the first round to draft Will Anderson; overconfidence in their own evaluation at the expense of future draft capital. At the same time, though, the point of draft capital is to use it to get good players, and Anderson is yet another Texans home run from this draft class. 49 pass pressures can’t be wrong, and while it would be great if he had a few more than his five sacks, they’ll more than do for year one. He’s an easy first pick.
There’s definitely a drop-off behind him, but two other rookies have hit 30 pass pressures so far this year – the Rams’ Byron Young and the Chargers’ Tuli Tuipulotu. We’ll go with Young, one of the roughly eight zillion rookies the Rams needed to make an impact this season. Young actually has more sacks than Anderson, though that has something to do with him playing about 250 more snaps. Even if not as efficient as Anderson, Young is just another example of Les Snead finding a mid-round contributor in 2023 that has kept the Rams afloat during the salarycapocalypse. Fuck, those picks.
Interior Linemen
Jalen Carter is the Defensive Rookie of the Year. Carter is already one of the ten or so best interior pass rushers in football – sixth in ESPN’s pass rush win rate and climbing. Giving the Eagles’ front a player like that, who can blow up the interior linemen and let the zillion other studs the Eagles have zip around, seems patently unfair.
While Carter’s a clear No. 1, there’s actually a bit of a bumper crop of interior linemen this season. Honorable mention has to go to the Steelers’ Keeanu Benton, who has been eating up space in Pittsburgh and letting the bigger-name players eat all season long, but we’re going back to the Rams, again, with Kobie Turner. Now, it certainly helps getting to work next to Aaron Donald and letting him soak up attention but having 6.5 sacks as a defensive tackle is impressive no matter what line you’re on.
Linebackers
I love it when a UDFA makes this squad. Minnesota’s Ivan Pace isn’t a borderline selection, either. Undrafted out of Cincinnati, Pace not only made the Viking’s initial 53-man roster, he stepped up in Jordan Hicks‘ absence to spend most of the middle of the season as the heart of the defense. As a starter, Pace averaged 10 tackles per game, with two sacks, an interception, and plenty of passes defensed. Pace is allowing 4.5 yards per target, fewest among qualified linebackers…or qualified anyone outside of Baltimore, for that matter. He lost playing time this last week with Hicks back, but he’ll find his way back on the field sooner rather than later.
The other two linebackers with significant playing time are Henry To’oTo’o and Jack Campbell. Both are liabilities in pass coverage, at 8.5 and 9.1 yards per target, respectively. But Campbell has been a good player in run support, with a 61% stop rate to To’oTo’o 56%. The gap feels a bit bigger than the raw stats would indicate; Campbell does a better job flowing downfield and finding himself in the right place at the right time. His average run play happens a full yard closer to the line than To’oTo’o’s. Campbell may be a one-dimensional player right now, but that dimension gets him onto the team.
Cornerbacks
Once again, we have a gimmie – Devon Witherspoon. The Seattle corner is allowing just a 46.3% completion rate, fourth-best total in the league among players with 50 targets. He’s in the top 10 in yards per target at 5.4 and has a very solid -12.8% in our new slot-adjusted cornerback DVOA. In a world without Jalen Carter, Witherspoon would be a great choice for Defensive Rookie of the Year, and he’s likely to appear on a bunch of ballots.
There were five other corners with enough targets to qualify for those cornerback DVOA ratings, and three of them have solid enough numbers to be worth considering for two slots. Pittsburgh’s Joey Porter (-2.5%) and Cincinnati’s DJ Turner (-2.3%) are neck-and-neck among the true corners, while Detroit’s Brian Branch (-13.4%) puts up Witherspoon-esque numbers when asked to play as a slot corner. I was tempted to move Branch to safety and save myself a decision here, but Branch has about 500 snaps as a corner to about 150 as a safety. That feels like a bit of a cheat. I’ll go straight with DVOA here and take Branch and Porter to round out the starting three, with Branch working in the slot.
Safties
San Francisco’s Ji’Ayir Brown didn’t really start playing defensively until Week 11, when Talanoa Hufanga tore his ACL. Losing an All-Pro like Hufanga would be a massive blow to any defense, but Brown came in almost without missing a beat. Brown doesn’t hit like Hufanga does – few people do – but he may already be a better coverage player. In the month and a half he’s been in the lineup, Brown has two interceptions and four passes defensed. Brown’s steady play has mitigated a disaster.
Because Brown is more of a free safety, we’ll lean towards Cincinnati’s Jordan Battle over Atlanta’s DeMarcco Hellams for the other slot. Battle has been a thumper in the box all season long; his 50% run stop rate ranks 11th among safeties with at least 25 rush plays, and his 5.6 rush yards per play is near the top, as well.
Special Teams
The best first-year kicker is Brandon Aubrey; a perfect 33-for-33 on field goals with eight from 50 yards or more. But he isn’t a rookie! Technically, Aubrey spent his rookie season with Toronto FC II in the USL Championship. Even if you were to ignore his soccer career and only look at his time as a kicker, he had two seasons with the Birmingham Stallions in the USFL. He can’t qualify as our rookie kicker. Instead, we’re going with San Francisco’s Jake Moody, the only rookie kicker with positive field goal value this season. He’s at +0.1 points added; Aubrey, by comparison, is at +10.8. Still, it’s better than Anders Carlson‘s -2.7, Blake Gruppe’s -8.3 or Chad Ryland‘s league-worst -13.0.
Every rookie punter also has negative value, with two (Lou Hedley and Brad Robbins) having the lowest two scores in the league. New England’s Bryce Baringercomes closest to positive value at -0.4 points added; everyone else is at at least -5.0.
Competition is fiercer when looking for a runback specialist, as four rookie punt returners have positive value. Xavier Gipson gave the Jets a walkoff overtime touchdown against the Bills in Week 1. Derius Davis‘ 87-yard touchdown for the Chargers against the Jets is the longest play of the year. Charlie Jones‘ had a touchdown of his own against the Ravens in September. They also all have at least 19 punt returns to their name, more than our leader. But Denver’s Marvin Mims, with +7.7 points added, has been the third-most-valuable punt returner in football this season. His 17.4 yards per return are the most for anyone with double-digit returns, and he has five returns of 20 yards or more. Plus, we’re talking overall return skills, and while Mims doesn’t have a punt return touchdown this year, he does have one of only three kickoff return touchdowns, so that has to count for something.
Coaching Staff
Head coach is a hard decision. Neither the Texans nor the Colts are at all disappointed with DeMeco Ryans or Shane Steichen. Both came into teams with roughly zero expectations, with Indianapolis and Houston joining Arizona as the three teams with the lowest Super Bowl odds before the year. And yet both teams are 8-7 and in the thick of the wildcard hunt. They’re actually the seventh and eighth seeds as this is written, and there’s every chance their Week 18 matchup is a defacto playoff game. So, we’ll give the award to the winner of that game, everyone fine with that? No? I need to make a decision now? Alright. While both coaches have done a fantastic job, Ryans has done his fantastic job with his first-round rookie quarterback intact. Steichen watched Anthony Richardson get hurt multiple times in the first five weeks of the season before going on injured reserve and had to switch to Gardner Minshew. Let’s just say that Steichen’s offensive plans for a Richardson-based offense were not going to work with Minshew, but Steichen has been able to keep the ship upright. By degree of difficulty, and by the slightest of margins, Steichen gets the nod.
We’ll placate Texans fans some by turning around and picking Bobby Slowik for offensive coordinator. The latest off the Shanahan System assembly line has been getting praise across the league for his work with Stroud and the Houston offense, though that’s died down a little bit in the last couple weeks with Stroud and Dell out. No one looks good starting Case Keenum or Davis Mills. Still, Slowik is getting head coaching buzz after just one year as a coordinator; if he can help Stroud hit the ground running, what can he do for your franchise’s next first-round rookie? With Stroud healthy, the Texans have an offensive DVOA of 4.2% and a passing DVOA of 29.7%, sixth in the league. That will get you some job offers.
As for defense, uh … can we count Brian Flores? He’d never technically been a defensive coordinator, jumping straight from position coach to head coach in Miami. No? Then we have to choose between the Chargers’ Derrick Ansley and the Cardinals’ Nick Rallis, the only first-time, non-interim coordinators in the league. Both defenses rank in the bottom five of the league. Well, I suppose Arizona has yet to allow 63 points and get everyone fired, so Rallis wins by default.
