
There are some really expensive options on this slate, and both sites have done a fairly nice job of making roster construction tougher. As usual, I’m placing a high priority on premium running backs, which means it’ll be difficult for me to spend up at QB or WR. Enter Riley Leonard. The dual-threat extraordinaire has been sensational the last two games, surpassing 30 fantasy points in each. His first two games in a Notre Dame jersey were rather pedestrian but it seems the coaching staff have turned him loose in a way that made him so dangerous while at Duke. He has rushed for 322 yards and 6 touchdowns thus far which makes him a strong play itself. However, he is adequate as a passer having thrown for 587 yards with a completion rate just over 63%.
This is a slate full of lower-scoring games, which makes the projected shootout between UCF and Colorado stand out like a sore thumb. I am expecting a lot of rostership in this game with dual-threat KJ Jefferson being one of the more popular options at the position. The Knights are having a lot of success running the football and that’s something that bodes well for them against a Buffaloes defense surrendering over 150 YPG on the ground. We haven’t seen a ceiling game from KJ just yet, but we know what he is capable of and could very easily fly over 30 fantasy points here. He has thrown for 563 yards and 5 TDs while rushing for 135/1 TD.
Sanders is a great floor play each week because of the heavy passing volume this offense has. They simply don’t have the same level of success running the football. I will have shares of Sanders but it’s unlikely he makes my main build because there isn’t much rushing upside, and he really needs to clear over 400 yards plus 3-4 touchdowns to land in the optimal. He certainly can in this matchup, but we have to find savings where possible. With that being said, I want Colorado stacks in large-field tournaments. He has thrown for 1,340 yards and 11 TDs to just 2 INTs through four games.
Conner Weigman is questionable, but it seems highly unlikely he actually plays, which means we should get another start from Marcel Reed. He has been solid since stepping in as the signal caller and offers plenty of upside as a dual-threat weapon. He has rushed for 217 yards and a score while throwing for 422 yards/4 TDs. His accuracy hasn’t quite been there, and Arkansas would be wise to sell out against the run early on.
Josh Hoover, TCU: I’m a big fan of Hoover and this offense in general. He has been surgical throwing the football this season with a completion rate of 68.5% and over 1,400 yards. This is another QB that is high-priced though and doesn’t offer anything when it comes to mobility. TCU GPP stacks are intriguing but spendy.
Taylen Green, Arkansas: We were heavy on Green last week, and he failed to even get to 20 fantasy points. His performance wasn’t necessarily awful as he did rush for 80 yards but managed just 151 through the air and was picked off twice. He has completed just 53.7% of his passes this year, which was definitely a concern coming into the year, but he remains a GPP look due to his elite rushing ability.
Jalon Daniels, Kansas: I am slamming the over in this TCU-Kansas matchup, and I think both offenses will have very little trouble moving the ball. Daniels is yet another dual-threat QB on this slate, but he is easier to get to at $7.5k. The Jayhawks offense has juice but the high variance with their TD distribution can make it tilting on a week-to-week basis. Daniels could easily score twice on the ground, but he has one of the best RBs in all of college football looming behind him.
Texas QBs: Quinn Ewers is questionable and considered 50/50 to play. If we are being honest, the Longhorns don’t need him in order to beat a bad Mississippi State team, so we are probably going to see Arch Manning get another start. The blowout risk is very real, which takes some of the upside off of whomever starts for Texas, but they could reasonably hit 300 and 3 by halftime.
Avery Johnson, Kansas State” The Cowboys defense is getting obliterated through the air and on the ground so this is a great spot to target a lower rostered Avery Johnson. As a mobile QB, he will be a real problem for Ok State. They’re giving up over 180 YPG on the ground along with 280 YPG through the air.
Will Howard, Ohio State
Jalen Milroe, Alabama
Cade Klubnik, Clemson
We were essentially all-in on Devin Neal last week, and he was rostered by less than 10% of the field. He had a solid game, eclipsing 100 yards, but he scored just one of their three rushing touchdowns. This drives home the point about how frustrating the touchdown variance can be with this team. Fortunately, it matters less this week as Neal’s price is way too low to ignore and he has an elite matchup on paper. The TCU defense has given up 176.8 YPG on the ground so Neal should theoretically feast here. Brashard Smith just gashed them for 127 yards/3 TDs and RJ Harvey went off for 180 yards/3 TDs before that. This is the quintessential “nuts,” as they say.
Harvey is arguably the best player in all of CFB DFS, and he is having a ridiculously strong season. He has 448 rushing yards and 9 total touchdowns (8 rushing/1 receiving). He may not be under $9k on DK ever again and his price on FD is already exorbitant but we probably still have to jam him in. Fading Harvey is just not in the cards for me in my main build.
DJ Giddens is expensive but well worth it, and you’re well aware of the DVP spot here because I’ve talked about it non-stop for weeks. He still accumulated 93 yards on the ground last week despite the team struggling mightily against BYU. If he gets 20-plus touches as I expect he should put up a huge number. Dylan Edwards is an interesting GPP pivot from Giddens and he is someone that is efficient enough to pop despite being the RB2. He is also a consistent pass-catcher out of the backfield, so that puts him even closer to viability and almost no one will roster him.
Marks has asserted himself as one of the alphas on this team and is valuable due to his contributions as a rusher and a pass-catcher. He has 271 yards and 3 TDs with a YPC of 6.5 along with 11 catches for 86 yards. His rostership seems to be creeping up the closer we get to lock so keep that in mind as you’re building your primary lineup.
Jaydon Blue finally had the breakout game that the industry was expecting with 124 rushing yards on 25 carries and 3 touchdowns in a blowout win over ULM. I think a lot of people will just assume he is a lock to do it again in another easy win but if you rewind to week 1 when he was over 40% rostered, he produced just 57 yards on 11 carries in a 52-0 victory over CSU. Jerrick Gibson exists and will get work regardless and it sounds like Quintrevion Wisner is healthy enough to play as well so it would be a bit surprising if Blue got more than 20 carries this week.
You guys know by now that I prioritize DVP heavily. I’m a simple man, and when I see an exploitable matchup, I just keep attacking it. Purdue’s giving up an ungodly 280 YPG on the ground. Dowdell was given 20 carries in their close loss to Illinois last week and he has been trending up in snaps each game. The Cornhuskers have a deep group of running backs, but Dowdell is clearly separating himself from the others and this is a great spot to utilize him in all formats. Dowdell is also one of my favorite prop bets of the week and I’m predicting he has his first 100-yard game of the season.
Kalel Mullings, Michigan: Donovan Edwards isn’t Blake Corum. It’s time for me to accept that. While Edwards has started to come on lately, it’s been Mullings that has asserted himself as the top option. He has rushed for 150-plus in back-to-back games and is doing it in a manner that is beyond efficient. His YPC is sitting at 8.1 currently and this is a sneaky good matchup against a Minnesota team that gave up 129 yards to Omarion Hampton as well as 206 yards to Kaleb Johnson. Do not sleep on Mullings in large-field tournaments.
Ollie Gordon, Oklahoma State: This is my obligatory play Ollie Gordon at sub-5% in a GPP somewhere. The Cowboys O-line has been awful in run blocking situations and Ollie has shown zero elusiveness this season which has compounded the problems even further. He is still excruciatingly expensive but if he wakes up, it’s going to be a very profitable day for whomever rosters him.
Ja’Quinden Jackson, Arkansas: It’s not the best matchup by any means but Jackson has been fantastic this year racking up 472 yards on the ground and 8 touchdowns. The threat of Taylen Green calling his own numbers in the red zone is real but Jackson has continually found a way to score every week.
Brashard Smith, SMU
Phil Mafah, Clemson
Ohio State RBs
Penn State RBs
The consensus between Jake and me is that Will Pauling is easily the best WR play on the entire slate when you factor in the combination of price, opportunity and usage. Once Tyler Van Dyke went down with a torn ACL against Alabama, things seemed bleak for Pauling’s chance of being fantasy relevant the rest of the season. However, backup Braedyn Locke stepped in and peppered him with 11 targets which became 9 receptions for 83 yards/1 TD. The Trojans defense has improved but it’s still nowhere near an elite unit and I love Pauling’s chances of winding up on the optimal this week. We are all over his props as well.
The usage is concentrated among four players, which makes it easy to build Colorado stacks for this slate. Travis Hunter is the obvious play but is one of the most expensive players on both sites. He currently has 37 catches for 472 yards and 5 TDs on 44 targets. He can definitely break the slate but if he doesn’t, the rest of your lineup will be hard pressed to make up those points. LaJohntay Wester is much more affordable and likely going to be quite popular because of it. He has turned 29 targets into 18 catches for 226 yards and 4 touchdowns. Will Sheppard (13-148-0, 20) hasn’t gotten going since transferring from Vanderbilt and Jimmy Horn (18-286-1, 28 targets) hasn’t done much since his big Week 1 performance. Wester and Sheppard are the easiest to get to in Sanders lineups, but I would sprinkle each of these four into your GPP builds.
I love this TCU passing game, and I think they’re being overlooked by the masses. Hoover is off to a monster start as I mentioned in his blurb, and I think a TCU stack could very well be a GPP winner this week. Jack Bech (25-513-4, 33 targets) has been nigh unstoppable while Savion Williams (23-244-3, 31 targets) has shown vast improvement as well. We did get a breakout performance from Boise State transfer Eric McAlister (12-222-2, 16 targets) last week and that makes this team even scarier now that he has gotten comfortable in the offense. Lastly, JP Richardson (16-190-0, 25 targets) is a decent enough value play to consider in your stacks.
We know the Knights run the football a lot, but when they actually pass it, Kobe Hudson is the man grabbing all of the targets. He has 13 catches for 310 yards and 2 touchdowns on 19 targets. Nobody else on the team has more than 10 targets, 6 catches or 95 yards. It’s Hudson or bust in the UCF receiving room.
Jabre Barber, Texas A&M: This is a bit of a sneaky play for me as Barber’s box scores will cause most to scroll right on by him. However, it’s worth noting that his snaps and targets have been trending up and the coaching staff has indicated that he is going to get even more work now that he is healthy. Barber was targeted 115 times at Troy last year and had a solid stat line of 76-985-5. The Aggies need a receiver to step up to keep defenses on their toes and I’m pushing my chips in on Barber to do it.
Texas WRs: The blowout is certainly a concern as I’m not sure that the Bulldogs can score even 10 points against Texas this week. I would envision this game playing out with the Longhorns scoring 30-plus points by halftime and then calling the dogs off after that. This means any of the pass-catchers you take will have to get it done early. Isaiah Bond (15-290-3, 20 targets) has an appealing price on DK at $4.8k but he is still going to have to catch a TD to pay it off still. My preference is to utilize Ryan Wingo at $3.7k. He has one of the highest offensive grades on PFF for freshmen and has thrived with less targets than most. He has caught 9 of his 11 targets for 239 yards and 2 TDs. Tight end Gunnar Helm (11-197-1, 12 targets) and Matthew Golden (13-171-3, 17 targets) are both interesting as well.
Zachariah Branch, USC: The Trojans have lots of depth at receiver which has made it difficult to justify using them in DFS but TE Lake McRee is going to be out for a while and Makai Lemon is also dealing with an injury which has opened things up a bit. Branch is uber-talented and hasn’t necessarily gotten to show it off as much as we would like. He caught 6 of his 11 targets for 98 yards last week. He is a nice look at $5k and it’s reasonable to expect double-digit targets once again.
Tai Felton, Maryland: Felton’s a stud and still priced a little too low for his production. I don’t expect him to be rostered as much as usual due to the fact that there are so many pay-up options on this slate, but you’ll want to get exposure if you’re doing MME. He has 41 receptions for 604 yards and 5 TDs.
Caullin Lacy, Louisville: He is min. priced on both sites and considered a game-time decision. Lacy is coming back from a collarbone injury so it’s tough to feel great about rostering him even at the stone min. It also doesn’t help that the Cards are facing off against the tough Notre Dame defense. However, Lacy had over 1,300 receiving yards last year at South Alabama and is a bona fide problem when fully healthy.
Devin Neal
RJ Harvey
Will Pauling
Will Howard
Phil Mafah
Jabre Barber