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Alonza Barnett III, James Madison ($8,800)

It’s always interesting when G5 schools make up one of the better DFS matchups of the slate — these are teams that generally people are not as familiar with and there may be a hesitancy to pay nearly $9K for a QB you’re not as familiar with as you might with a Jalen Milroe or Dillon Gabriel. And yet, Alonza Barnett is one of the best possible plays on the slate. He’s the second-leading rusher on JMU with 418 yards and 7 TDs and has also thrown for 2,400 yards and 24 TDs. That’s massive production, and better still, he takes care of the ball, with only 3 INTs on the season.

He also gets an elite matchup in Marshall that has been feasted on by dual-threat QBs, most recently Old Dominion’s Colton Joseph who put up 25-158-2 on the ground alone in addition to a respectable 200-plus and 1 TD through the air (and let’s not forget this was 4-7 Old Dominion, not some P5 powerhouse). They should again be susceptible here, and Barnett is primed to take full advantage.

Braylon Braxton, Marshall ($,7300)

Braxton has a similar playing style to Barnett and can be had for a much lower price, so he is intriguing as both a QB/superflex pairing option for Barnett or individually. James Madison has been a bit better defensively, which is mainly what accounts for the price discrepancy, but this one has all the makings of a shootout in which both QBs get things done in all phases of the game. Braxton is coming off a 200-yard, 3-TD passing performance in addition to adding 140 yards on the ground, which makes for one of his best performances of the season. Given the form in which he’s coming into this one and also the likely game environment, we’re going to be prioritizing Braxton a great deal.

Kurtis Rourke, Indiana ($7,000)

It will be an exercise in mental fortitude for Kurtis Rourke and this whole Indiana team to finish the regular season strong after playing the biggest game in recent Indiana football history and getting molly-whopped by Ohio State. Fortunately, their season ends with a matchup against 1-10 Purdue, which hasn’t been able to offer much resistance against anyone. It’s tough to think of many matchups that would be better suited for taking out one’s frustrations than Purdue, and I suspect Rourke will be given a little extra leash to toss the rock around even once this one is out of hand. So, while I would ordinarily have more than a little bit of pause about using a QB in a 29-point spread game, I think in this one in particular there will be some concentrated efforts to put up some style points and build Rourke’s confidence back up prior to entering the inaugural CFB playoff.

Avery Johnson, Kansas State ($7,800)

We finally saw the mobility come back for Johnson, with him putting up a 10-72-1 line on the ground against Cincy in a game they won handily. With this one expected to be a much more competitive game, we could see him approach 20 carries, which in addition to his blossoming as a traditional passer, could lead to all kinds of fantasy goodness here. The Iowa State offense has been remarkably efficient, and the defense surprisingly attackable, which makes for fantasy goodness all the way around. I would expect 250/100 with 4-plus TD upside for Johnson here, which is fantastic for the price.

DJ Lagway, Florida ($5,400)

The starting QB for a non-service academy school who has actually shown a tendency to throw the ball downfield is less than $6K against Florida State. Don’t overthink it. Also, he mainly throws to Elijhah Badger and so figuring out a pairing partner is no issue.

Running Back

Jordan James, Oregon ($8,000)

While this is Dillon Gabriel’s team, the Washington defense has been particularly susceptible to giving up chunk yardage on the ground, and Oregon has a diversified enough playbook that they would happily play to their one of their own strengths while attacking a glaring weakness of Washington’s. James has seen his production fluctuate, usually seeing high volume and the production that follows in competitive games, and getting his usage throttled down in blowouts. With this one expected to be somewhere on the borderline of competitive vs not, you could really make either argument here, but context is key. This game is for Oregon to maintain the No. 1 overall seed in the CFP, which no matter how things end up, will always be a recruiting tool. I would expect to see a full workload for James until the game is well in hand, and so a three-score spread bothers me less here for an $8K RB than it would in most iterations of this scenario.

George Pettaway, James Madison ($5,900)

If you don’t find yourself with the type of roster construction that allows for utilizing Barnett at the QB spot but still want exposure to this game (I don’t blame you), Pettaway is a reasonable and much more affordable way of doing that. He’s the leading rusher in volume by quite a bit, especially in the RB room where he has 83 more carries than second-leading RB rusher Wayne Knight. The rub is that he doesn’t get a ton of volume on a per-game basis (only 800 yards on the season despite a 6.0 YPC), and Barnett also is such a threat to call his own number at the goal line that Pettaway has only 4 rushing TDs on the year.

All of those caveats aside, he’s a very intriguing point per $ play on this slate, and if he gets the TD variance over Barnett at lower ownership it will provide a good amount of leverage against the field.

Justice Ellison, Indiana ($5,300)
Ty’Son Lawton, Indiana ($5,000)

Much of what was said above with regard to Rourke applies here too. If you think that at a certain point Indiana decides that enough is enough for Rourke to get his swagger back, we could see heavily volume from Justice Ellison the way we did against Washington, when he went 29-123-1, which would be quite a welcome stat line at only $5,300. Lawton on the other hand was the back that has run better of late, including 15-79-2 against Ohio State (albeit much of that volume came with the game well in hand). The reality is, either (or both) of these backs could have a standout day against an awful Purdue team that will serve as a punching bag in all phases against an angry Indiana team, and you’ll want to sprinkle exposure to each across different lineups.

Iowa State RBs

I’ll be honest I’m glad we’re almost done with these guys. They are almost always cheap and find themselves in good matchups plenty (this being the Big 12 and all) so they real me in, but man is it tough to pick the right one. If you’re looking for the recent hot hand, it’s Carson Hansen ($4,800) who is coming off of 14-57-2 against Utah. If you’re looking for the historical alpha in this matchup, it is Abu Sama ($3,800) who went for 16-276-3 in this matchup last season. And if you are looking for the thing that makes the least amount of sense, that would be Jaylon Jackson ($3,500) who hasn’t cracked double-digit fantasy points since Week 6, which means he very well could be due for 25 carries, allowing him to put up 150-3 (he says, not entirely tongue-in-cheek).

Florida RBs

If you’re not going to use Lagway and Badger, then you are presumably of the opinion the Gators will lean on the running game to dismantle their in-state rivals. Should they do so, the primary options they’ll dispatch are Montrell Johnson ($4,600) and Jadan Baugh ($4,300) who, much like the Cyclone backs, carry different skill sets. Unlike the Cyclone backs, their usage is reasonably predictable, which means that even if Walt and I don’t agree with what will happen, we still have a decent chance of guessing what that will be. Johnson is the pounder and should get somewhere near 20 touches in this one, on which he should put up 100 yards and at least one score. At $4,600, that would be enough to cement him as one of the top plays on the slate, except, Baugh is slightly cheaper and should come in at much lower rostership and is much more explosive. With an elite matchup, there’s an argument for using both in the same lineup and just hoping Florida doesn’t bother to throw very much. Could lead to a very productive day and a very unique lineup.

Xavier Robinson, Oklahoma ($4,500)

In what has been a tumultuous, injury-riddled season for the Sooners, arguably their most glaring lack of continuity (even by such a high standard) has been at RB. With Jovantae Barnes unable to stay consistently healthy and productive, and Taylor Tatum showing more flash than inconsistency, while heir apparent Gavin Sawchuk became a complete non-factor, the opportunity for the next volume back in Norman was right there for the taking. Over the last two weeks of SEC play, Robinson has shown that he is up to the task, in particular with an emphatic 18-107-2 against Alabama of all teams.

He gets a much softer matchup here, and one that is worn down and deflated from having faced a gauntlet of Texas A&M, Alabama and Florida, and failing to rise to the challenge on all occasions. Robinson should be able to further stake his claim as the RB1 of the future for Oklahoma with a good showing against LSU here.

Amari Daniels, Texas A&M ($4,200)

Rough matchup for Daniels, but they ran him 27 times against Auburn, and he is the benefactor of defenses having to concentrate so much of their firepower on stopping Marcel Reed. Now this Texas defense is something else entirely, but 25-plus-carry volume at sub $4.5K is noteworthy, even if it likely won’t be as efficient as some backs who are similarly priced.

Josh Williams, LSU ($3,800)

I know we stan Caden Durham in these parts, but at a certain point we have to pay attention to what LSU is actually doing, and not just what we think they should do. In the last two games, it actually has been Williams who has been more explosive and done more with the opportunity given, and those opportunities have been almost precisely equal. We have to pay attention to that, and at only $3,800, the price discrepancy between the two is now massive. Both backs should have plenty of chances here, but Williams has a much greater opportunity to pay off his paltry price tag.

Wide Receiver

Jayden Higgins, Iowa State ($7,800)

As frustrating as the Iowa State RBs are, their pass catchers are precisely the opposite. This is a theme we’ve seen all season, and it doesn’t change here. Jayden Higgins is as reliable as they come and is top 10 in all of college football in both yards and catches this season going into this week. He has 8 TDs as well and could very easily have plenty more if the Cyclones didn’t turn things over to their talented triumvirate of tailbacks when near the goal line quite as much as they do. Still, Higgins is full of 8-100-1 type games, and that’s the floor here. One of the safer receiving options available on a slate that is much more robust when it comes to running back options at all price points.

Elijhah Badger, Florida ($5,600)

Covered earlier in both the Lagway and RB sections, but his chemistry is undeniable. We’ve seen the price creep back up to the point where is not a stone-cold lock, but he is still very interesting and has slate-breaking potential.

Yamir Knight, James Madison ($3,800)

This is the No. 1 WR for the team with one of the best game environments on the entire slate, and he’s sub-$4K. Yes, there’s not a ton of TD equity with how much gets eaten up by the running game and how spread out the TDs are (no Dukes pass catcher has more than 5 TDs, Knight has 4), but this price is still way too cheap. More expensive options Cam Ross and Omarion Dollison have struggled of late while Knight has flourished. Contextualize that as you see fit, but Knight remains a very strong option.

Elijah Sarratt, Indiana ($5,200)

If Rourke, Sarratt.

Matthew Golden, Texas ($4,200)

Golden has quickly gone from a guy who has seen extremely efficient production on limited volume to a King Midas-like pass catcher worthy of his name. With multiple scores against each of Florida and Arkansas preceding his highest volume game of the season against Kentucky, he can no longer be thought of as a GPP only flier, but rather as one of the primary targets one what has now become a more condensed group of pass catchers (only two players had more than 2 catches against Kentucky, of which Golden was one).

Texas A&M WRs

This group lands squarely in the roulette wheel category, and last week’s winner was Noah Thomas, who is the highest priced of this group at only $3,500. Terry Bussey ($3,400) had 6 total touches and will likely be even more involved in this one. Jabre Barber ($3,300) and Jahdae Walker ($3,200) have both had big volume at times and are of interest as well. The bad news is if you managed to find a three-sided coin to flip to help you choose an Iowa State RB, you’ll need one more side to get things sorted here. Any of these guys can go off, and though Texas is as tough a defense as A&M has faced this year, I suspect we will see a big game from one of these four here.