Bettings

The Alabama/Ole Miss game rules the roost on the Saturday college football DFS slate. If you want to find a way to double stack Bryce Young and Matt Corral and attack by far the highest total on the slate, that will sure be a popular approach, and by all means go nuts. We rarely see an 80-point total in CFB, let alone are we lucky enough to have it on the main slate. But we can’t just stop the analysis there, so let’s take a look at the chart.

Favorite Dog Spread Total
Alabama Ole Miss 14.5 80
Texas TCU 5.5 65
Missouri Tennessee 3 65
Ohio State Rutgers 15.5 58.5
Oregon Stanford 8 57.5
Florida Kentucky 7.5 55
Penn St Indiana 12.5 53.5
Oklahoma Kansas St 10.5 52.5
Cincinnati Notre Dame 2 50.5
Georgia Arkansas 18.5 48
Oklahoma St Baylor 3.5 47.5
Texas A&M Mississippi St 7 46
Clemson BC 15 46
Wisconsin Michigan 2 43.5

The FanDuel slate adds in a few games that might have some interesting players, but the prime matchups with some of the juiciest DFS plays are on both sites (thank goodness!). I don’t have much interest in the FanDuel-only matchups of Clemson/BC, Texas A&M/Miss St. or Oklahoma St./Baylor. Penn St./Indiana might garner some interest, particularly with a very cheap Ty Fryfogle, who will likely be the recipient of frequent targets due to fellow WR DJ Matthews tearing an ACL last weekend. If you’ve already read through the DK version of this, lots will be similar, but there is still some nuance to pricing that you’ll want to pay attention to, as well as some guys that show up on DK but not FD and vice-versa.

Let’s dive in.

Quarterback

Bryce Young, Alabama ($11,200)
Matt Corral, Ole Miss ($10,500)

Not going to spend too much time here. If you can make the salary work, play one or both of these dudes. If you can only play one, I’m leaning Corral as he is going to be involved with whatever Ole Miss does, whereas Bama can have a more diversified attack. 

Casey Thompson, Texas ($10,200)

When you hang 70 points on an opponent, usually the QB is involved to a pretty impressive degree, and Thompson’s performance against Texas Tech was no exception. After such a performance, Thompson is all but assured the unquestioned QB1 at Texas, and with the TCU defense keyed (and rightfully so) on Bijan Robinson, it should open things up for Thompson to operate in a similar manner to last weekend. It could mean continuing to find Xavier Worthy, but it could end up with him spreading the ball around or even tucking and running a bit more than he has thus far. While accounting for 6 TDs again may be a stretch, it’s also not out of the question for Thompson in a high-octane offense with a capable opponent operating on the other side of the ball and what is likely to be plenty of pace. 

Connor Bazelak, Missouri ($8,800)

Bazelak just keeps finding a way to be fantasy relevant, while continuing to spread the ball out as much as anyone we’ve seen before, making it awfully difficult to find a suitable stacking option. He also doesn’t run, making him less appealing to play naked than other QBs with skill sets that are friendlier to our DFS purposes. That said, exactly 300 yards per game and 10 TDs vs. only 3 INTs will play on any field, and at this reduced price, he could be a valuable salary saver with so much talent to plug and play elsewhere. 

Running back

With this many games on the slate, you can go a variety of different directions at RB and find a path to success. While we often try to optimize for point per dollar, in some scenarios we have to take a step back and understand just how much certain backs are likely to be utilized in comparison to others, given the context of the game archetype and the adjacent personnel on the depth chart. For Saturday’s slate, we’ll focus on the guys we expect to have the most volume and opportunity while still being cognizant of their relative value.

Bijan Robinson, Texas ($11,500)
Tyler Badie, Missouri ($10,300)

Similar to your Young/Corral decision, if you have the salary for one or both of these guys, play them. The cons are simple — for Robinson, he’s had one bad game and it was on the road against a team with a historically stout run D, and that’s sort of the matchup he gets here. For Badie, it’s that Bazelak slings it a ton, and despite his pass game involvement, that might luck him out of more touchdowns than would be ideal. The pros are that Bijan is the best back in the country and that Badie touches the ball a ridiculous amount, including 5 catches per game out of the backfield. You may very well use one of Robinson or Badie, but using both and still being able to get the players you want at other positions may prove difficult, so there is a decision to be made here already. 

Zach Evans, TCU ($9,800)

I’m not sure there is a back in a better contrarian spot than Evans. He isn’t in the Ole Miss/Bama game, he isn’t Bijan Robinson, he doesn’t offer much of a discount, and he is on an offense that is an underdog and we are programmed to want running backs from teams that are favorites. But I’m here to tell you that none of that matters and Evans is a tremendous GPP play as he will be involved in all facets of the offense regardless of gamescript and is capable of breaking a long one any time he’s got the ball in his hands. If there were ever a game for Evans to get the elusive 25-plus touches that would help him unlock his ceiling, it would be this one. TCU needs to win this game for a billion reasons, and having Evans be the star of it is how that happens. In this battle of 5-Star RBs from the 2020 recruiting class, I would not be surprised if Evans ends up winning the battle, at a substantial discount in price and likely ownership to Robinson. That said, you aren’t getting quite as much of a discount on Evans on FanDuel as you are DraftKings, so if you wanted to use Evans more heavily over on DK, that would be a sound approach.

Chris Rodriguez Jr., Kentucky ($9,400)

It seems as though Kentucky regularly produces a consistent, even if unconventional rusher. This was the case with Benny Snell, and this was even more the case with Lynn Bowden Jr. Now it is Rodriguez’ time to shine, and he has been given every opportunity to do just that, piling up 85 carries already through only four games. He has a tough matchup against Florida, but this game is at home and Kentucky will look to control the clock, which is very likely a path to another game with 20-plus for Rodriguez. While he isn’t available on the DK slate, if you’re fading some of the other top options on FD, it’s a close enough spread and a high enough total for him to be viable, especially with Florida likely keyed on do-it-all wideout Wan’Dale Robinson and that hopeful creating some extra running room. 

TreVeyon Henderson, Ohio St. ($8,800)

Henderson is probably even sneakier on FD than he is on DK as you’re not getting much of a discount for the inherent risk he carries. We saw a pretty even carry split between Henderson, Miyan Williams and Master Teague against Akron, but that could also be due to Ryan Day’s desire to not overwork any particular back in a non-competitive game. While Rutgers isn’t the toughest of tests either, this is a conference opponent and the Buckeyes may leave the foot on the gas a little longer, and Henderson has shown us his immense upside with his 24-277-3 line against Tulsa. If he is unleashed again, with the advantage Ohio State’s O-line will have, doing something similar isn’t out of the question. If he only gets 10-12 touches, he is likely to underwhelm (albeit 100 yards and a score isn’t out of the question even on this limited volume). Really this comes down to what you think Ryan Day will do in his first quasi-real test since losing to Oregon, and at least some of my money is willing to bet it is that he will feed Henderson. 

Tennessee backfield (prices below)

Tiyon Williams ($7,400) and Jabari Small ($6,800) are both options here, as the Missouri run defense has been dreadful all season and just last week gave up 275 yards and 3 scores on 49 carries to a less than overpowering BC rushing attack. Couple that with the fact that the Volunteers may be better off searching for volunteers from the student section to throw passes instead of Joe Milton or Hendon Hooker, and I would think that this is poised to be a big day on the ground. Keep in mind they are much more evenly priced on FD, so I may tend to lean toward Williams exposure on FD and Small exposure on DK. 

Wide receiver

Ole Miss and Alabama WRs (prices below)

We’re just going to talk about all of these guys at once, because you’ll want to stack this game every which way possible, and the highest upside exposure is going to be via the pass catchers. We’ll start on the Bama side, where Ohio St. transfer Jameson Williams ($9,200) has eclipsed incumbent John Metchie ($8,500) in pricing and probably also explosiveness, but not in volume. Metchie has 5 or more catches in each game thus far, and Williams is yet to record more than 4. A lot of folks will assume Williams is the Alpha here, but that just isn’t so. Metchie may be yet to break out so far this season, but his price is reflective of that and likely too much of a discount if we’re being honest. If we want to dive deeper into the pool of pass catchers, we may see some more of slot men Slade Bolden ($5,400) or Jojo Earle ($4,400) than we have, but they will rarely be Bryce Young’s first read. TE Jahleel Billingsley ($6,000) is probably a better value over on DK, where he is lower priced than both Bolden and Earle. 

On to the Ole Miss side, it is the Corral show all the time, but some passes will have to end up in the hands of some pass catchers if he is on his game. Dontario Drummond ($8,800) has been Mr. Reliable so far in this offense, with 5+ catches and a score in each game, and 100-plus yards in two of three thus far. He’s pricy and will likely be the focal point of Nick Saban’s secondary, so it would be wise to also consider some potential pivots if Drummond isn’t able to break free of the extra attention. Those can be found in the form of Jonathan Mingo ($7,900) who has put up two very impressive games in his own right and Braylon Sanders ($6,400) who put up a 4-74-1 against Tulane and seems to be emerging as another critical weapon in Corral’s arsenal.

Ty Fryfogle, Indiana ($6,900)

My man Fry is about to have himself a game. Yes, Penn St. has a good defense. Yes, this game is in Happy Valley. Yes, Michael Penix does not look himself just yet. But Fryfogle is immensely talented, and he and TE Peyton Hendrshot were the only pass catchers Penix bothered to look at after DJ Matthews went down against WKU. It will be tougher to lock on with higher caliber defenders of course, but Fryfogle is slippery enough to still get separation and see volume, while also having enough athleticism to win at the catch point on any contested balls Penix elects to throw. Penn State’s athletic LBs will likely be able to handle Hendershot just fine, so if there’s anyone you want on this IU offense, it’s Fry. 

Bo Melton, Rutgers ($6,800)

Melton was off to a blistering start to the season (in the context of a Rutgers WR being limited by their QB play, I suppose), putting up a healthy number of catches in each game, including a nine-catch day against Syracuse, before being bottled up by the fierce Michigan defense. He’ll have just the kind of game script we want to see a WR in chasing multiple scores against what has at times been a suspect Ohio State secondary. We’re not going to get much more guaranteed volume than this at sub-$5K, so Melton is very much in play even though he plays on a team with a relatively low team total. 

Taye Barber, TCU ($6,800)

For as much as I want to declare Saturday a Zach Evans day, it’s entirely possible Texas stacks the box and forces Max Duggan to air it out, which up until last week had meant plenty of Quentin Johnston, but Johnston may as well have spent the day getting his haircut, as all the production went to Barber. With Johnston rendered ineffective (0 catches on 5 targets), Barber managed to put up 5-114-1 and appeared to be back to his old chemistry with Duggan. Between Barber and Evans, one (if not both) of them will need to have a big day for TCU to keep things competitive.