
It’s time to look ahead to the late Saturday college football DFS slate. If you recall the Alabama/Ole Miss game from a few weeks back, it got all the hype and was wildly disappointing unless you lock-buttoned Brian Robinson Jr. and didn’t really touch much else from that game. I point that game out in particular how even the games with super high totals can go wrong, albeit that game also had a massive spread for Ole Miss to overcome, and it turns out they weren’t able to keep up.
We would be incorrect, though, in weighing that game too heavily in our memories, as we find ourselves once again faced with an outlier total of 80-plus, and yes, Ole Miss is once again involved. Let’s take a look at what else we’ve got before diving too deeply into the water.
Favorite | Dog | Spread | Total |
Ole Miss | Tennessee | 2.5 | 82 |
OU | TCU | 13.5 | 64 |
Alabama | Mississippi | 17 | 58 |
Washington | UW | 1 | 55 |
Stanford | Washington St | 1 | 52.5 |
NC State | BC | 3 | 51.5 |
Iowa St | Kansas St | 6.5 | 50.5 |
Wisconsin | Army | 14 | 38.5 |
So Ole Miss/Tennessee is far and away the best possible game and there isn’t a 1B or a B or a C, it’s basically that game and a bunch of C-/D+ type games, and then Wisconsin/Army, which is like the least DFS-friendly game conceivable in all of CFB. We’d better get into the alpha game sooner than later, and in fact we are going to eschew the regular format and dive deep into that game on its own, and then talk about the bits and pieces from the other games to mix and match.
You know the players by now. Matt Corral ($10,000) is an absolute dynamo when he’s not playing Alabama. He’s still going to be down Jonathan Mingo, but still has plenty of firepower with Dontario Drummond ($7,200), Braylon Sanders ($6,100) and a triumvirate of pass catching backs coming out of the backfield. About those backs- we don’t know as of right now if Jerrion Ealy is going to be able to give it a go, and if he is he is certainly worthy of consideration, but the real prize would be if Ealy can’t go, and the backfield options are whittled down to just Snoop Conner ($5,900) and Henry Parrish Jr. ($5,200).
To help narrow it down amongst those options, Drummond probably has the highest ceiling, but has lost some luster since the Mingo injury forced him to operate primarily on the boundary as opposed to out of the slot where he was incredibly productive the first 3 games of the season. Between him and Sanders, and especially considering price, I would have a slight lean toward Sanders while being fully cognizant that both are deserving of exposure and could have the blow up game that we covet.
As for the backs, if all three are available I would lean Ealy for the slight discount, but Conner and Parrish would be extremely valuable with Ealy missing, so much so that you could likely use both in the same lineup (and this went extremely well if you did so last week in their matchup against Arkansas). These two are priced up a bit from previous weeks but still palatable budget options for the overall game and slate context.
Bottom line, it’s going to be hard to go wrong choosing any of these pieces, the real question is going to be how many of them you are going to be able to fit.
It’s been nice to see this offense coalesce into a usable group for DFS purposes, and that starts with having a QB we know will start every week in Hendon Hooker ($8,800). The definition of a dual threat, Hooker’s most recent stat line was an impressive 225 yards and 3 TDs through the air to go with 20-66-1 on the ground. He should have every opportunity to capitalize on both skill sets and will obviously be needed in full capacity to keep up with Ole Miss, and it’s worth mentioning that it’s likely going to be more important to have Hooker in your lineups than Corral if you can’t fit both. But that said, man do you need to try to fit both. I know since Walter Waddell’s been in these parts we’ve fully embraced the Church of 4 RBs, but we’re talking about an 82-point total with two dual-threat QBs. They both have 50-plus-point upside in this spot, and if you can get 100 points out of two spots that creates a ridiculous floor for the rest of your lineup, but more importantly leaves you in the dust if you opted for only using one of the two.
There are other pieces from the Vols side besides Hooker, but they aren’t necessarily as clear cut as the ones on the Ole Miss side. That lack of clarity starts with their top RB Tiyon Evans ($7,700), a slate breaker a few weeks back against Missouri, who put up 16-119-1 last week but may or may not be healthy for this game against Ole Miss. If he’s available, he’s hard to play because he may be somewhat limited even if playing and the price is so high you’ll need a ceiling game from him to justify the other pieces you then wouldn’t be able to play. I’m probably not rolling with Evans in any capacity, but if he is ruled out that’s where things really get interesting for the Tennessee backfield. With Jaylen Wright ($3,400) unavailable and Jabari Small ($3,600) available but not seeing the field, we saw double digit carries from Len’Neth Whitehead ($4,000) for the first time. I doubt we would see that happen again, and if Evans is ultimately ruled out or is even limited, that would make Jaylen Wright and his bargain price a priority since we will be prioritizing pieces of this game that also allow us to spend up elsewhere. I’m not at all interested in Small, and the discount to Wright from Whitehead makes him of more interest even with the uncertainty of exactly how touches will be allocated. The reality is everyone is playing second fiddle to Hooker so we should take the discount where we can get it.
On to the pass catchers — Hooker has actually shown some skill as a passer that he didn’t at his time at Va Tech. He’ll likely have to do plenty of that just to keep pace in this one, and that should mean plenty of Velus Jones Jr ($6,600) who put up 6-103-1 against South Carolina, as well as a sprinkling of Cedric Tillman ($4,300), JaVonta Payton ($4,700) and Jalin Hyatt ($4,200).
The short answer on how to allocate your exposure to this pass catchers is that it’s going to be hard to predict who goes beserk, but one of them likely will so you’ll want to spread your bets evenly. If you want to double stack with Jones Jr to create a decent floor and then rotate the others around Jones, that would be a viable strategy as well, then using those combos with different pairings of Ole Miss WRs for the full game stack.
I’ll throw you some quick-hitter cheapies to mix and match with your Rebels/Vols.
Stanford is low on bodies in their pass-catching corps and Yurosek is fresh off a 6-118-0 game against a solid ASU defense. Gets a much easier match up against WSU.
Similarly injured WR corps going up against opponent that scores plenty and has solid rapport with QB.
Seems to be taking the lion’s share of carries away from incumbent Max Borghi, gets a fantastic matchup with a porous Stanford run D.