
We are back in full force, with an absolutely jampacked Labor Day Weekend of college football DFS to enjoy. We have no shortage of elite talent on this slate, with Alabama, Ohio State and Notre Dame representing the absolute highest echelon of collegiate competition, and we have a Group of 5 barnburner brewing between SMU and North Texas, wherein we do not expect much defense but we do expect plenty of vertical passing.
We’ll also get to see a vast array of some of the most dynamic dual threat QBs in college football in Malik Cunningham, Anthony Richardson, Will Levis, Grayson McCall and Garret Shrader. What an evening slate.
Favorite | Dog | Spread | Total |
SMU | North Texas |
-11 |
68.5 |
Alabama | Utah St |
-42 |
62 |
Ohio St | Notre Dame |
-17 |
59 |
Mississippi St | Memphis |
-16 |
57 |
Louisville | Syracuse |
-4.5 |
57 |
South Carolina | Georgia St |
-12.5 |
56.5 |
Kentucky | Miami (OH) |
-16 |
54 |
Coastal Carolina | Army |
-2 |
53.5 |
Utah | Florida |
-3 |
51.5 |
The first thing to note about these QBs is that they are all priced too low. For whatever reason, we can play whomever we want at QB, and despite our typical desire to trend toward a four-RB approach, this is most definitely a two-QB slate. There are just far too many good QBs (even beyond the ones mentioned here) that are available for us to not play two of them. I’m going to end up entering like 17 different lineups because there is just so much mix and match potential here. Again, this is extremely exciting stuff.
Ah, well. $5K for a mobile QB. And not just any mobile QB, but probably the most mobile QB, as he’s not much of a passer but will absolutely take off for 40 yards at a moment’s notice. I have no idea what is going on here. Utah’s defense is OK but also extremely thin in the secondary (anyone remember the Rose Bowl Jaxon Smith-Njigba Bowl? Backup RB Micah Bernard was playing DB at one point. That’s not to say that Richardson will turn into CJ Stroud overnight, but there’s plenty of room for him to crush at this price and he will do most of the damage with his legs which is better for our purposes anyway.
Much like Richardson, Cunningham mainly gets it done on the ground, but this year he actually has some decent receiving talent in extremely productive FCS transfer Tyler Hudson and returning speedster Ahmari Huggins-Bruce in the slot to go with old reliable Marshon Ford who will operate primarily as an H-Back. There’s a lot of talent here, and in what ought to be a pace up, hotly contested indoor game track meet, Cunningham should shine in all aspects of his game. He threw for 4 TDs before things got out of hand in last year’s matchup that ended 41-3 in favor of Louisville, this one ought to be a lot closer.
I would be tempted to say that McCall is the best option of all at the QB position, and purely from a talent standpoint it is likely between him and Stroud, but there are a couple things working against him. For starters, his two absolute stud pass catchers in Jaivon Heiligh and TE Isaiah Likely are now gone, and their absence along with the departed Kam Brown leaves a massive target share up for grabs. Second, he has a service academy opponent, which can mean tough, physical defenders and an offense that will drag out long slogs of possessions that chew clock. I’m counting on McCall’s hyper efficiency to combat this and put up plenty of points in the process. Like Richardson and Cunningham, McCall can get it done on the ground, and also has a penchant for calling his own number around the goal line.
We liked Aune against UTEP, and he had a very efficient outing, likely would have been able to put up even better numbers if UTEP would have been able to keep pace a bit. With SMU’s high flying vertical passing game, it will be North Texas that has to keep up, which means the ball will be in Aune’s hands a great deal. Pairing him with Roderic Burns, the clear alpha in this offense as well as a comeback of either Rashee Rice or Jake Bailey makes for an elite stacking option.
You are probably only going here in Louisville/Syracuse game stacks, but this should be an ultra-competitive game with not much defense, and yet another mobile QB. Shrader may not initially strike you as a dual threat, but he put up three games of over 100 yards rushing, two of which were over 170 yards, and he is a bit bereft of pass catching talent this year, making him potentially even more likely to tuck and run.
The main reason Shrader did not have more massive games was the absolute talent that is Sean Tucker. With an elite option like Tucker to hand off to, the game plan was, more often than not, try to play competent defense and then shove the ball down the opponent’s throat with Tucker, who only failed to rush for 100 yards in three games last season. He will also get a decent amount of work in the passing game, and potentially even more this season with the aforementioned lack of proven passing catching weapons.
Don’t need to get too far into the weeds on Henderson, he is probably the nation’s best all-purpose back and this is a reasonable price to pay for him. He won’t log 35 carries or anything like that but should be involved in all phases of the offense and has a nose for the goal line, having scored 19 rushing TDs last season and added another 3 via the passing game. With all of the value at QB and WR, we can afford the luxury of paying up at RB, which I’ll gladly do with Henderson.
I’m… I’m not sure what’s happening here. Feel the same way about Thomas as I do about AR. Just completely blew it on price. 100 yards and a TD (if not multiple) is definitely attainable here, and this price is just far too low. Plug and play Thomas in as many of your lineups as you can.
One of the things you have to do in a lot of situations with two players that get a decent amount of run at the same position is decide if you want the cheap one or the good one. Marks gets quite a bit of volume in the passing game and it’s almost never for any deep aDOT, so lots of opportunity to rack up the PPR points. It’s a Mike Leach offense of course, so no one gets much work in the running game, but Marks is versatile and at the end of the game you look up and he ends up with around 20 points somehow more often than not.
Johnson doesn’t get quite as much opportunity, but is pretty efficient in his own right, and if you want to get some leverage that Johnson ends up with the TDs, that will me more important than the $900 in savings.
All hail JSN. He is our lord and savior, our King of the caught pass. Nobody has as much talent and anyone who is close doesn’t have as talented a QB throwing to him or as talented of WRs flanking him making it difficult for defensive coordinators to allocate double coverages and whatnot, as there are so many different ways the offense can attack flawed coverages. If you’re playing Stroud, you have to play JSN. If you’re not playing Stroud, you probably need to figure out a way to play JSN. Absolutely elite upside, no one can match it. The only way Notre Dame will be able to slow him down is if they triple cover him, which leaves things plenty open for…
… Marvin Harrison Jr. who gets a pretty decent discount to JSN and has a lot of talent in his own right. His big coming out party was in the Rose Bowl when Chris Olave and Garret Wilson both sat out to stay healthy for the upcoming NFL draft (worked out for them as they were both first round picks), and he went of 6-71-3 in the same game that JSN went for 15-347-3. Hard to remember too many games in which a freshman that scores 3 TDs is a distant second-best receiver on the team, but this one-two punch is a pairing you will want plenty of exposure to.
We are in another “good guy vs cheap guy” scenario, but both of them are actually good and this may not necessarily need to be an or, as both of them will get volume in this game, and there will be plenty of points to go around. Rice has more history of producing in this system, but Bailey has flashed as a PPR option in his time at Rice (yeah, Rashee Rice has played at SMU his whole career and Bailey has paid at Rice, that will be confusing all year). Bottom line is, play at least one of these and probably both.
If you are playing both of Bailey and Rice (or even one of the two) you’ll probably want a runback, and Burns is the perfect runback. The undisputed alpha of a vertical offense that will be airing it out trying to keep up with SMU, Burns should easily get to 100 yards and a score, making him a reliable piece with upside against a defense that should have trouble containing him.
We are dealing with a Q tag here, but if we get confirmation that Bell is playing, this is a silly price. I posted it in the Discord earlier this week when pricing came out for this slate. This is a seldom used “you’re doing it wrong” play in the sense that if Bell is a full go and you don’t play him, you’re doing it wrong.