
By the time you’re reading this, I am likely on a flight to Europe, so hopefully our Walter Waddell has you covered on any injury news in Discord. We have a wide-open college football Saturday afternoon DFS slate with a few expected blowouts in the SEC and ACC and a couple of Pac-12 barn burners that we expect to light up the score board. Rarely is Army involved in the highest total on the slate, but that’s what happens when they get an elite offense/awful run defense match up like the one they have with Wake Forest. Who could forget last year’s Army/Wake slate breaker that ended up 70-56 Wake? Not I…
Favorite | Dog | Spread | Total |
Wake Forest | Army |
-16.5 |
65.5 |
USC | Washington St |
-13.5 |
65.5 |
Oregon | Arizona |
-13 |
70.5 |
Notre Dame | BYU |
-3.5 |
51 |
NC State | Florida St |
-3 |
50.5 |
Kentucky | South Carolina |
-6.5 |
46.5 |
Kansas St | Iowa St |
-2.5 |
45 |
Clemson | Boston College |
-20 |
48.5 |
Alabama | Texas A&M |
-24 |
51 |
I’m not sure how you’re going to afford Hartman with so many other talented options on this slate, but he put up a performance for the ages in this same matchup last season, with over 450 passing yards and 5 scores, as well as adding another on the ground. The Army defense is unlikely to have gotten a whole lot better in the offseason, and simply can’t compete with the type of athleticism that Wake Forest brings to the table. Similarly, the Wake Forest run defense is unlikely to have improved a whole lot in the offseason and will likely be unable to maintain the requisite discipline needed to stop such a precise and regimented offense like the one Army brings to the table. Suffice it to say, there should be points, and Hartman will be involved.
Somebody behind the curtain of the DraftKings algorithm just has it out for Cam Ward with this pricing. He’s rarely been above $5K and has put up games of 22, 24, 30 and 26 fantasy points. He’s also a two-score dog and should be throwing plenty, much like he was in the game against Oregon that they ended up losing by only a field goal (I think we would all be on board for another 44-41 Pac-12 shootout). USC’s defense is quietly not very good, and with Ward’s talent and efficiency we might see a ceiling game from him that not only allows him to smash this price, but also support multiple pass catchers as well as keep the USC first stringers involved for long enough. Any Ward lineups should have at least one Wazzu pass catcher (more on the preference of which one later) and also a USC runback, whether that be Heisman hopefuls Caleb Williams and Jordan Addison or the 20-point machine Travis Dye (22, 25, 25 and 21 points in his last four games), we want a number of pieces of this game as well.
It’s going to be an interesting spot here, as the only time De Laura has faced a real defense (against Mississippi State), he stunk, completing less than 50% of his passes and throwing for only 220 yards with a single TD and 3 INTs. He has absolutely smashed against lower competition, including a 484-yard, 6-TD outburst against Colorado. What I’m sensing is a little bit of the Spencer Sanders flow chart in De Laura, which is an interesting thing to look at with Oregon, as Oregon is historically a tougher defense, but have been anything but this season, having held only Eastern Washington under 20 points and already having yielded 40-plus twice this season. If you think the Oregon defense shows up and De Laura turns into a pumpkin, I’d stay away. If you think he’ll be able to keep the magic going a little bit longer, this is a great price and he has two excellent pairing options in target monster Jacob Cowing and freshman sensation Tetairoa McMillian, who has yet to crack 100 yards but has caught TDs in each of his last two games.
Is DJ U finally good or has he just sorta played bad teams all season? We won’t have much of an opportunity to find out here, as Clemson is a hefty 20-point favorite in this one, and if gamescript goes according to plan DJ U won’t have to do much besides hand off to Shipley and the gang, but with this game at BC and Zay Flowers trying to show that he has a future in this game, getting every target he can handle and making things happen, I suspect this one will be a bit closer than most predict. If it is, and we get a full game’s worth of DJ U with the foot on the gas against a very suspect BC defense, it would be a “gotta have it” type game from him.
I can’t talk about this game enough. We should mention that Tyler of course is not a quarterback in the way that you typically think of a quarterback or even a mobile quarterback. He is more of a conductor of the symphony that is the triple option. He is the guy first deciding if he should hand off to the fullback, then whether he should pitch to a wingback or keep. When he keeps, things have generally gone well. After being used sparingly in the opener against Coastal Carolina, Tyler has scored in each of his last three games, including a 77-yard, 3-TD performance against Villanova and a 110-yard, 2-TD performance against Georgia State. He will of course lose some work in the passing game to Army’s more conventional option at QB, Cade Ballard, but even in this time share, Tyler has enough volume and has shown enough efficiency to be interesting, especially at this price.
Prior to last week’s Arkansas game, we hadn’t really seen Jahmyr Gibbs’ talents on full display — with a lineup of Utah State, Vandy, and ULM (the Longhorns notwithstanding), they hadn’t really needed him to show up to the fullest of his ability. With Bryce Young going down with an injury against Arkansas, the Tide needed Gibbs to be their do everything back and he did the everything and did it well. Gibbs got by far his most volume of the season, with 18 carries that he took for 206 yards and 2 scores, and even added some work in the passing game. With another week of Jalen Milroe against a tough Texas A&M defense, I would expect Gibbs to get another heavy workload here. We might not see 11 YPC again, but we might not need it with 20-plus touches and likely some goal-line work.
If it isn’t a DJ U game against BC, it is very likely because it has been a Will Shipley game. An integral part of the Clemson offense, Shipley has not seen fewer than 10 carries in any game, including three blowouts, and got up to 20 carries against Wake Forest. He has also seen some involvement in the passing game in conference play, catching 3 passes in each of his last two games. With his all-purpose involvement and a nose for the end zone, he’s a good bet for multiple scores against a very beatable BC defense.
Similar to Shipley, Dye has been very involved in the USC offense, and with defenses doing their best to contain Caleb Williams and Jordan Addison, Dye gets to run against some pretty light defensive fronts. He’s gone over 100 yards in three of his last four and scored in all four, including two scores in his most recent outing against Arizona State. Dye has also recorded at least one catch in every game this season, and although he has yet to reach the end zone in that fashion, he remains heavily involved in a dynamic offense that has no trouble putting up points, and against a weaker defense like Washington State, should have no trouble here either.
When Tyhier Tyler doesn’t keep the ball himself, he’ll usually be handing off or pitching to either Buchanan or Robinson, both of whom had success in last year’s iteration of this game, with Buchanan only getting 14 yards but punching it in across the goal line twice, and Robinson putting up an ultra-efficient 98 yards on 11 carries. Both should see some involvement again here and should have plenty of room to run. Robinson is both cheaper and the more explosive of the two, so in lineups where you aren’t running Tyler, he would be my preference, but the case can be made for either.
We see him on this slate every week and don’t need to do the same song and dance. If you think there is any chance Wazzu keeps it close, it’ll be 100 and 3 for Addison without breaking a sweat.
Cowing has not caught fewer than 5 passes in a single game this year, has scored in every game (including three times in the opener) and has been over 100 yards in three of five. That amount of consistency will command a premium price and he is correspondingly the third-highest-priced WR on the slate. It will also draw a lot of attention from the defense, and if you want to pivot off the target monster that is Cowing, Dorian Singer or true freshman Tetairoa McMillan would be great options to do so.
Perry is more or less Hartman’s go-to guy, as much as gunslinger like Harman who spreads it around can have one of those. He hasn’t seen a ton of volume so far this season, with just the one game over 5 catches, and also just one game over 100 yards, but the talent and opportunity are there, with a matchup that could not be much better in terms of sheer physical mismatches. Last year in this matchup with Army, Perry went for 6-146-1, which seems like a pretty good game until you also consider that Jaquarii Roberson went 8-157-3 in his own right. There should be even more upside for Perry in this one and like we said in the Hartman section — the sky really is the limit for him here.
We don’t often like to target players from teams that are just flat out bad, but in the rare cases that we do, receivers that will be trailing and have large target share is a pretty good context in which to begin. Flower is coming off of a monster week in which he went 5-151-2 against Louisville and has shown the explosiveness to a be a home run threat every time he touches the ball for multiple seasons now. Whether he can do it against Clemson is another story, but this isn’t your father’s or uncle’s or older brother’s Clemson defense, this is the group that gave up 45 to Wake Forest just two games ago. Flowers is cheap relative to what he is capable of and should have no shortage of volume.
Mayer is living up to his target monster potential, and while the matchup is no cakewalk, he should still see a decent amount of action here over the middle of the field. With just a single game over 100 yards so far this season, Mayer typically gets it done through PPR volume and having a big red zone presence anyhow. While there might be more explosive options with higher ceilings, I’m not sure if there are too many more consistent pass catchers in this price range, regardless of matchup.
Speaking of explosive options, Franklin has emerged as one for Bo Nix to rely on, especially in the deep passing game. Reeling off a 5-137-1 performance against Washington State and then a 4-52-1 against Stanford, Franklin is off to an excellent start in conference game, and really has had passable fantasy performances in every game except the Georgia game to start the season.
There has been a bit of a roulette wheel with Washington State receivers, with De’Zhuan Stribling coming into the season with plenty of cache and Donovan Ollie amassing a ton of catches in the early weeks of the season, but the most impressive and consistent pass catcher of the bunch might be fellow Incarnate Word transfer Robert Ferrel. Now fully integrated into the game plan, Ferrel has gone 8-50-1 and 6-79-1 in conference play, and at only $3,500 makes for a very inexpensive pairing option with Ward.