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I am back from a weeklong hiatus wherein I traveled to Europe, was a groomsman in a beautiful bilingual wedding, saw the Sagrada Familia in all its glory and caught the flu in time to give it to my family. Quite the trip, all in all. I am elated to come back to a college football DFS slate in which we can deploy brand favorite John Ryhs Plumlee in a freaking 64-point game total with a single-digit spread.

Let’s dive in to the top DFS plays for this slate.

Favorite	Dog	Spread	Total
UCF	ECU	-5	64
Alabama	Mississippi St	-21	60.5
Louisville	Pitt	-2.5	55
TCU	Kansas St	-3.5	54
Oregon St	Colorado	-23.5	48
Air Force	Boise St	-2	47.5
Texas A&M	South Carolina	-3	44.5
Penn St	Minnesota	-4	44.5

Quarterback

John Rhys Plumlee, UCF ($8,400)

You know the drill by now. Whatever he gets you passing (and he’s been doing a decent amount of that) is icing on the cake, Plumlee’s true ability to do damage and strike fear in the heart of opposing defenses (or unwise DFS faders) is with his legs. 100 yards and 3 scores on the ground is well within the potential outcomes, and that just isn’t something you can say for any other QB on the slate, or the main slate, or any slate that exists. Plumlee went for 7-37-3 on the ground in addition to 373-4 through the air against Temple, and ECU is far more likely to keep up with UCF’s ability to score than Temple was, so we should see Plumlee keep the foot on the gas even more. Could we see the double bonus of 300 passing yards and 100 yards on the ground? Yes. Could we see 8 total TDs? It would be a lot, but I believe we could. Could we see the greatest fantasy performance since Lynn Bowden at the Belk Bowl? I think we just might.

Holton Ahlers, ECU ($7,200)

If we’re going to get a Plumlee performance for the ages, it will be because ECU is able to keep pace on offense, and that will mean a big game from Holton Ahlers. Ahlers was able to show up in a big way against Memphis, ultimately emerging victorious after putting up a game in which he completed 75% of his passes for 300-plus yards and a score, and added a second score on the ground paving the way to a decent fantasy day, despite RB Keaton Mitchell hogging the vast majority of the TDs (Mitchell scored 3 rushing TDs on the way to having a monster day in his own right). But Ahlers is capable of a big day himself, having put up 465 and 6 TDs a few weeks back against South Florida, and this opportunity against UCF ought to be quite a bit friendlier to his scoring output with some TD regression likely to occur.

Max Duggan, TCU ($7,900)

If there’s a QB I am less fond of succeeding than Bo Nix, it’s Max Duggan, so suffice it to say, it’s been a tough year. Putting our personal biases aside for DFS purposes though, Duggan is in another great spot here in what should be a back and forth affair with Kansas State- on paper it doesn’t have the same sort of offensive firepower that UCF/ECU does, but these teams do typically find a way to put up points, and Duggan has been on a tear, having scored on the ground at least once in his last three, while also scoring at least three times total (and throwing for damn near 300 yards) in each game in that same span. The dynamic duo of Adrian Martinez and Deuce Vaughn struggled the last time we saw them against Iowa State, but they’ve had a bye week to get right and should be explosive in this one, causing Duggan to have to keep his foot on the gas all game.

Bryce Young, Alabama ($9,100)

The ultimate pay for safety play, Bryce Young will rarely lose you a slate. He’s composed, accurate, has a plethora of weapons in a dynamic scheme and should be out for blood after Alabama’s first loss since the National Championship game, first regular season loss since getting rolled in College Station around this time of year last season, and first loss to Tennessee since the Bush administration. Nick Saban will have his boys ready, and while I expect them to roll comfortably against an overmatched and injured Mike Leach Mississippi State squad, I don’t expect Saban to take the foot off the gas. This will be an opportunity for Bryce Young to pile up the points, and while he isn’t the threat on the ground that some of the QBs on the slate are, the possibility of 400-plus passing yards and 5-plus TDs is very real.

Adrian Martinez, Kansas State ($8,300)

Another guy on the love to hate list, Martinez has had some electric performances and some clunkers this season, but should be up to the test here coming off a bye week and operating against a TCU defense that hasn’t been all that stout, especially against dual-threat QBs, having just given up 11-68-2 on the ground to Spencer Sanders, which means we could be in for another 100-2 game on the ground for Martinez and maybe some auxiliary passing work. I don’t love spending up this high for him when we could get Ahlers on the other side of the Plumlee show for over $1K less but the elite upside is there, and we have seen it in this offense.

Running Back

Jahmyr Gibbs, Alabama ($7,800)

Gibbs is reaching Bijan Robinson and Blake Corum levels of matchup proof, but he won’t particularly need it in this one as Mississippi St is coming off a game where they got absolutely pounded by a one dimensional Kentucky attack that featured Chris Rodriguez putting up a behemoth 31-197-2, on the heels of Rocket Sanders going 20-86-1 and Devon Achane going 16-111. Suffice it to say, this is a group that can be ran on, and Gibbs has really kicked things into high gear putting up 18-206-2, 21-154 and 24-103-3 against Arkansas, A&M and Tennessee respectively. At home against a suspect Mike Leach defense Gibbs could run even more wild, and it is worth nothing he has had involvement in the passing game (having seen as many as 9 catches in one game) every game this season. Seeing his price go down a tick after a 41-fantasy-point outing is a bit strange, but this is not the time to question the methodology, this is the time to put Gibbs in every lineup you make and ride the gravy train.

Israel Abanikanda, Pittsburgh ($8,000)

If there is a back that is capable of an even higher ceiling that Gibbs, it is the guy that we just saw put up 71 (that’s not a typo, actually 71) fantasy points in his last outing against Virginia Tech. I’m not sure I can remember too many 36-320-6 lines, and Abanikanda got dangerously close to the 400-yard, 8-TD masterpiece from Jaret Patterson in 2020. Now, repeating a performance like that is all but impossible, especially if we see Rodney Hammond Jr. back in the mix alongside Vincent Davis, although Davis saw only 4 carries against VT in Pitt’s most recent game. While the upside is certainly there for Abanikanda, we’ll need to temper our expectations somewhat, although if we are able to fit both he and Gibbs into our lineups, that is a fantastic start.

Isaiah Bowser, UCF ($6,800)

If there’s a reason Plumlee underwhelms — and believe me we are already reaching to get to a scenario like this — it will be because he (or a WR) gets tackled inside the 5-yard line, and Bowser is there to clean up the dirty work and fall into the end zone. We don’t love to roster Bowser, especially not at an elevated price point, due to his lack of explosiveness (and the massive explosiveness we see from Plumlee), but there does exist the very real possibility of a 20-80-3 game from Bowser that sees Plumlee fail to get into the end zone on the ground, in which case you would much rather have Bowser than Plumlee. I also wouldn’t go out of my way to get both into lineups together, but in game stacks, guaranteeing yourself a piece of all the UCF points is an understandable endeavor.

Keaton Mitchell, ECU ($6,300)

Another interesting piece of our feature game, Mitchell looks to be heavily involved in whatever ECU does, having finished last game out with 29-149-3 on the ground to go along with 4-28 in receiving work. The game prior against Tulane in awful gamescript, he ended up catching 8 balls for 54 yards. In a high scoring affair like this one, having exposure to an RB that can contribute in multiple facets of the game opposite a quick strike offense like the one UCF has (as well as a shaky defense) makes Mitchell a priority here.

Kendre Miller, TCU ($5,900)

Another guy who has seen consistent production without the corresponding price increase, we have to be very interested in in Miller at this price point- as we have seen his touches steadily increase (up to 22 carries) resulting in a massive 22-104-2 game against Oklahoma St last weekend, Miller has also been extremely consistent finding the end zone with at least one score in every game this season, and 2 scores in two of his last three games. All of that, and his price actually came down from last week’s $6,200, making him an even better option at $5,900 this week.

Damien Martinez, Oregon State ($3,500)

Oregon State should win this one handily, and likely will not have the same issues with their lead ball carrier getting bottled up that Cal did. Plus the stingy Oregon State defense should allow for plenty of short fields and scoring opportunities for the Beaver backs, and as of this past week, Damien Martinez looks to have usurped the lead back role from DeShaun Fenwick, and while there will still be a split backfield, Martinez getting the lion’s share of the work at this bargain basement price is not something we’ll see for too much longer. Further, not only will Oregon State likely be playing in good field position and with a lead, but they’ll be doing so with backup QB Ben Gulbranson at the helm, making them that much more likely to lean on the running game and feeding Martinez all he can handle.

Jalen Mitchell, Louisville ($3,000)
Trevion Cooley, Louisville ($3,000)

Louisville’s Tiyon Evans is likely missing this one, and that means one of Mitchell (injured as well but should be back for this one) or Cooley should have an opportunity to put up RB1 numbers for ‘Ville alongside Malik Cunningham. Mitchell probably has more raw talent, but Cooley has proved extremely capable in games that both Mitchell and Evans have missed, so he’s no slouch either. The best-case scenario for either back is that Louisville somehow lets us know what the snap and touch numbers will be, so that whomever they are in favor of utilizing for the lion’s share of the work can be who we drop into our DFS lineups.

Wide Receiver

UCF WRs

The most expensive of the bunch and most explosive is easily Ryan O’Keefe ($7,300), who after a slow start to the season has put up 6-117-2 and 7-111-2 in back to back games (albeit against Temple and SMU), but it’s not as though ECU is some stalwart pass defense, so odds are O’Keefe will continue to roll here, especially in what should be a back and forth offensive affair. Javon Baker ($7,100) has been sort of O’Keefe’s inverse, starting the year with very impressive games in his first 3 outings, but not having put up much of anything against more recent opponents. Kobe Hudson ($6,000) has flashed the last couple of weeks, but the price is a bit steep for his combination of skill set and low target share. Beyond those three, there’s really not anyone to focus on, so you will probably want to rotate between those three with the most emphasis on O’Keefe.

Isaiah Winstead, ECU ($7,400)

If there’s a pass catcher on the slate with even more upside than O’Keefe it’s going to be Winstead. The guy has not had fewer than 5 catches in any game this season, and since Week 4 he has gone 11, 6, 9 and 9 going for over 100 yards twice in that span and scoring a TD in three of the four. Winstead is a 30-point game waiting to happen and with what Plumlee is about to do on the other side of it, he’s got upside for 40 trying to keep up. With most folks likely watching box scores and leaning toward using Keaton Mitchell, Winstead might come in slightly less rostered than he deserves, which is all we need to go all in.

Quentin Johnston, TCU ($7,000)

One of the early portion of the season’s biggest disappointments, Quentin Johnson has now put up 14-206-1 and 8-180-1 in consecutive weeks in conference play, and I don’t know if he was nursing an injury early on or just was saving his best stuff for when it mattered most, but he looks like a completely different player. This version of him the last couple of weeks is the unstoppable force we all thought we were getting all season, and we get him here in a competitive matchup as only the sixth-most expensive WR on the slate. Decisions between O’Keefe, Winstead and Johnston will need to be made, but they will not be easy.

Ja’Corey Brooks, Alabama ($5,800)

One thing this iteration of the Alabama juggernaut has been missing is a true alpha WR, and the lack of consistency has made it tough to pinpoint which Alabama pass catcher is going to be the one to put up a worthwhile fantasy score relative to his price. One candidate for beginning to do that, though, is Brooks, who has gone 6-117-2, 2-44-1 and 6-79-1 over his last three, which is more consistency with regard to both volume and finding the end zone than anyone else in the Alabama armada can say for themselves. If he can put up another big one, say 6-100-1 at minimum, we may just have our go-to guy in the Alabama offense.

Healthy Warm Bodies, Pitt

We’ll need to pay attention closely here as there is a lot of info to process and we won’t necessarily know how actionable it all is until closer to kickoff. We know that high volume pass catcher Konata Mumpfield is injured and might not be able to go. We know that Jared Wayne has been injured for every game and could be any of good to go, limited or completely out. Bub Means is healthy, but his name is Bub. Gavin Bartholomew keeps getting hurt but is apparently ready to go for this one. Bottom line- someone has to catch passes for Pitt, and whomever is healthy and seeing targets should have plenty of success against the sieve that is Louisville’s defense. We’ll just need to keep an eye on actually playing.

Marshon Ford, Louisville ($3,900)
Cameron Latu, Alabama ($3,700)

Typically I’ll assign an “or” designation between two otherwise indecipherable plays from the same team, but this is a rare “or” for pass-catching TEs in schematically friendly offenses with good matchups that cost under $4K. You’re not going to play both of them in the same lineup, but depending on what you’ve done with the rest of your lineup, there is certainly the potential for each of these guys to go a minimum of 5-50-1, which at sub-$4K, is always going to be interesting.