It’s been an enjoyable week of college football, and we have done fairly well throughout these small DFS slates, but it’s time to delve into Saturday’s main event. I will be focusing on the 12-game DraftKings main slate for this breakdown but will also highlight any relevant options from the larger, FanDuel game set.
In addition to this top plays-style piece, you’ll want to check out the latest episode of the CFB SuperShow for full game-by-game analysis. Some slate-altering news will inevitably take place over the next 12-24 hours and the FTN CFB DFS Discord is the place to be leading up to lock so that you’re armed with the most up to date information. Let’s jump in to this week’s main slate breakdown.
Vegas Odds
Team
Odds
Team
Odds
Total
Syracuse
+625
FSU
-950 (-17.5)
55
Iowa State
+164
Cincy
-198 (-5)
45
Arkansas
+800
Alabama
-1350 (-20)
47
Georgia
-31.5
Vanderbilt
+31.5
56
Indiana
+33
Michigan
-33
46
Ohio State
-1200 (-19)
Purdue
+750
50.5
California
+350
Utah
-455 (-11.5)
44
Kansas
-142 (-3)
Oklahoma State
+120
56
Oregon
+130
Washington
-155 (-3.5)
67
Texas A&M
+130
Tennessee
-155 (-3)
55
Illinois
+410
Maryland
-550 (-14)
51.5
Iowa
+285
Wisconsin
-360 (-10)
34.5
Quarterbacks
Michael Penix, Washington ($10.2k DK/$11.4k FD)
Was there ever any doubt about which QB would be featured in this week’s main slate breakdown? Heisman hopeful Michael Penix has been incredible this season and is easily my favorite play on the slate. I want to make it clear that I’m a homer when it comes to the Washington Huskies, but the reason for targeting them heavily for DFS purposes goes well beyond my fandom. The high price on Penix may cause some to shy away and the fact that he doesn’t offer any rushing upside will also keep his rostership down slightly. Despite his nonexistent rushing stats, Penix still possesses the sort of upside needed to fully break a slate and pay off these high prices.
The Huskies have been a prolific passing team this year, which has led to Penix being first in yards per pass and second in passing yards. Furthermore, his “bad game” in Week 5 against Arizona still resulted in nearly 400 yards so we are getting a lot of built-in safety for our investment. Look for him to strike back in a big way this week with 3-plus touchdowns and 400+ yards while cementing his name as a serious Heisman contender the rest of the way.
Jayden Daniels, LSU ($12.6k FD Only)
There are myriad elite quarterbacks on the FD slate this week, and they’re all expensive, so difficult decisions will have to be made. While Penix is a lock for me on DK, I’m not so bullish over on FD because of Jayden Daniels and Caleb Williams being on that slate. I’ve made the conscious decision to play Daniels each and every week regardless of price or opponent. He has become nearly unfadeable as one of the best dual-threat QBs in all of college football.
Bo Nix, Oregon ($10k DK/$11.3k FD)
At first I thought Penix was going to be mega-chalk, but with all of the high-priced options and the distinct lack of “safe value,” tough choices are going to have to be made. I played with roster construction after the show, and it seems obvious to me now that Bo Nix will be higher on the priority list of many. Nix offers the mobility that Penix doesn’t, which will be the determining factor for a lot of people. He hasn’t shown that rushing ability much this season as he has less than 100 yards on the ground, but he is still fully capable of punishing defenses with his legs. This is a player that racked up over 500 yards and 14 rushing touchdowns a year ago. He simply hasn’t had to rely on his mobility yet this season, but this sets up as a game that will require Nix to pull out all the stops and unleash his full complement of skills.
Additional QB Options
Jordan Travis, FSU — Travis didn’t need to do much last week as Virginia Tech’s terrible defense provided little resistance to the running game, which caused the game to get out of hand fast. Trey Benson ate hard against the Hokies and Travis basically took his foot off the gas during the blowout. There is potential for a similar outcome against a suddenly fading Syracuse team but I’m considering Travis to be one of the top GPP plays on the slate. It’s a great matchup and the rostership should be miniscule for the most part. The Orange have been completely undressed by Drake Maye (400-plus yards/4 TDs) and Cade Klubnik (263 yards/2 TDs) in back-to-back weeks. Don’t be surprised if Travis ends up being one of the highest-scoring players by the end of the slate.
Caleb Williams, USC — Another FD only play for the main slate. The Trojans defense got a ton of hype in the offseason about the improvements they’ve made, but it’s become almost comical that they’re somehow worse than 2022. They’ve given up at least 28 points in three straight games, which includes nearly collapsing against Colorado and struggling to put away a painfully average Arizona squad. This has been great for fantasy purposes as it forces the offense to keep their foot on the gas which has led to Caleb Williams putting up monster numbers. This is a tough matchup with Notre Dame on tap, but Williams is one of those guys that has to be considered matchup-proof at this stage of his career. I have Daniels, Nix and Penix ahead of him but he won’t talk anyone out of using him.
Carson Beck, Georgia — I mentioned on the show that it’s time to put the industry on notice regarding Carson Beck. He gets almost no hype from the DFS community despite the fact that he has thrown for almost 2,000 yards and 11 TDs while also rushing for a pair of scores. He has completed nearly 75% of his passes and has an athletic freak at tight end to throw the ball to in Brock Bowers. The blowout factor is real as the Bulldogs will have this game against Vandy wrapped up by halftime but it’s a situation in which Beck could have 300 and 3 by then.
Sam Hartman, Notre Dame — He hasn’t been the fantasy asset that he was during his career at Wake Forest, but this matchup with USC offers us a chance to see a vintage Hartman performance. His efficient passing ability is usually the focus of everyone, but he has sneaky rushing upside as well, which further pushes his upside and makes him one of the best leverage options on the FD slate.
Additional MME Options
Garrett Shrader, Syracuse Emory Jones, Cincy Max Johnson, Texas A&M Luke Altmyer, Illinois JJ McCarthy, Michigan Jalen Milroe, Alabama
FanDuel-Only Options
Drake Maye, North Carolina Behren Morton, Texas Tech DJ Uiagalelei, Oregon State Dante Moore, UCLA
Running Backs
Devin Neal, Kansas ($6.7k DK/$9.8k FD)
I wrote a few blurbs about Devin Neal for FTN Bets, and needless to say I’m all in on him as usual. Far less of a priority on FD, but I will have very few DK lineups without him. The Cowboys’ rush defense has been victimized all season long and are currently giving up over 150 YPG on the ground. This is good news for Neal as he should find plenty of running room against them. Another bonus is the fact that OK State has a capable offense and this one should remain close throughout which should result in a massive number of touches for the brand-favorite. The uber-efficient Neal has a YPC of 7.7 and nearly 600 rushing yards. He has also scored 7 total TDs (6 rushing/1 receiving) to go along with 14 receptions for 170 yards. He is a versatile weapon in this Jayhawks offense who should be leaned on heavily with Jason Bean starting once again.
Ollie Gordon, Oklahoma State ($6.2k DK/$7.8k FD)
A lot of people are uncomfortable with using running backs from the same game because of the perceived idea that you’re limiting your upside. However, this is something that works to our favor at the collegiate level because running backs tend to get a ton of usage, regardless of game script. Guys like Neal and Ollie Gordon also provide us with a pass-catching element that further solidifies the idea of using opposing backs in the same build. I love Gordon almost as much as Neal this week and will be deploying them together with confidence. The Jayhawks rush defense has also been putrid, so the DVP is strongly in Gordon’s favor. He has established himself as the go-to back in this offense and relegated Jaden Nixon as well as Elijah Collins to water break duty only. Gordon has 39 carries and 257 yards in the past two games alone.
Le’Veon Moss, Texas A&M ($5.3k DK/$6.8k FD)
I love the price of Moss on both sites and have him high atop my priority list this week. Similar to Gordon, he has taken control of the RB1 gig and doesn’t appear to be giving it up anytime soon. The snaps have diminished for Amari Daniels and Rueben Owens the past few weeks which is a further indication of Lev’s developing bell-cow status. He had just 14 carries for 72 yards in the first two games but has racked up 253 yards on 48 carries the past 3. As our friend Jon Rothstein would say, buy stock now.
Bucky Irving, Oregon ($7.5k DK/$9.5k FD)
I’m focused heavily on the passing game of both teams in this Pac-12 battle, but it would be gross negligence on my part not to get exposure to the efficient Irving. He has rushed for 393 yards and 4 TDs while rocking a YPC of 7.9 so far. He’s also a factor as a receiver with 18 catches for 137 yards. The Huskies have held backs such as Jaydn Ott, Nathan Carter, Jonah Coleman and Ashton Jeanty below 75 rushing yards this year, so their defense has proven themselves more than capable. It’s fair to say Irving is a more dynamic option than any of those players and his ability to contribute as a receiver makes him a strong option.
Additional RB Options
Emani Bailey, TCU — Chandler Morris will be out for at least a few weeks with a serious injury, so I’m expecting them to feed the talented Bailey often against BYU. He has already rushed for a career-high 690 yards through six games and has caught 11 passes for 90 yards.
Devin Mockobee, Purdue — This is strictly a price play as Mockobee is cheap on both sites. A matchup with THE Ohio State Buckeyes isn’t great, but Swiss-army knife Tyrone Tracy is out with an injury which means Mockobee will get the majority of the backfield touches for this one.
Dillon Johnson, Washington — All of the touchdowns the Huskies scored against Arizona came on the ground and they finally featured Dillon Johnson heavily. He toted the rock 16 times for 91 yards and a pair of touchdowns while catching 5 passes for 48 yards. We are accustomed to seeing him as a receiving threat from his time with Mississippi State and that is where his true upside comes from. If Oregon is successful with keeping the Huskies pass-catchers in front of them and letting nothing develop deep, we could see a ton of PPR work for Johnson this weekend.
Donovan Edwards, Michigan — We can’t keep letting Edwards hurt us, but his $4.9k price on DK is simply too cheap not to speculate on. I’m certainly not suggesting he is a lock by any means, but we can’t deny that there is a lot of upside at this salary. Edwards is seeing the snaps and is involved with the offense, but things haven’t opened up for him the way we have seen in the past. He is going to eventually break out of this slump, and I don’t want to be caught with zero exposure when it happens.
Jalen McMillan is expected back after missing a couple of games. His return would further boost this buzzsaw of an offense. He has caught 20 passes for 305 yards and 3 touchdowns on 24 targets in three games played. Rome Odunze is the premium option and is the ideal pairing partner with Michael Penix, but his cost is quite prohibitive. He leads the team in targets with 45 and has a stat line of 32-608-4. WR3 Ja’Lynn Polk has really emerged this season and now has caught 26 of his 32 targets for 468 yards/4 TDs. He is high atop my list since we are getting a slight discount. Other options to consider for GPP purposes are Germie Bernard (18-242-1, 22 targets) and Jack Westover (13-125-4, 14 targets).
Oregon WRs
Sticking with the most alluring game of the day, the Oregon Ducks receivers are obviously strong options in all formats. It gets spendy with Troy Franklin, but he has been the apple of Bo Nix’s eye this season. He is leading the team in targets with 42 and has caught 32 passes for 535 yards/7 scores. It’s understandably difficult to get to Franklin and it is easier from a pricing standpoint to get to his counterparts. Tez Johnson has been productive with 15 receptions on 22 targets for 203 yards and 3 touchdowns. Gary Bryant (18-227-2, 21 targets) and Traeshon Holden (17-185-3, 20 targets) are almost necessary to make our lineups work. Holden is one of my favorite options because of his price and TD equity within this offense.
Ainias Smith, Texas A&M ($4.9k DK/$7.2k FD)
Evan Stewart and Noah Thomas started the season blazing hot, but it’s the prolonged consistency of Ainias Smith that has established him as top DFS option on this team. Smith now has a team-high 39 targets and has generated over 400 yards on 26 receptions. He hasn’t found the end zone yet, but it’s only a matter of time before he does, especially with Max Johnson favoring him as his go-to receiver.
Isaiah ‘Juice’ Williams, Illinois ($5.5k DK Only)
The injuries are piling up for the Illini, and the season is quickly spiraling out of control. I would consider a 20-7 loss to Nebraska as close to rock bottom as it gets. Despite these woes, Juice Williams has been spectacular for fantasy purposes. He has been targeted 57 times and is averaging over 80% of the snaps. He has 38 receptions and 503 yards but no touchdowns yet. He is an excellent choice for PPR and will likely see stratospheric rostership.
Additional WR Options
Oklahoma State WRs — De’Zhaun Stribling will miss the rest of the season due to an injury, which is a tough blow for an improving offense. Once Stribling left the game, it was Rashod Owens that stepped up catching 5 of his 7 targets for 75 yards. Owens hasn’t been much of a fantasy option during his career but had a similar situation occur back in 2021 when he was thrust into more snaps due to injury. From weeks 4 to 8 of the 2021 season, Owens was targeted 22 times and caught 13 of those passes for 170 yards and a score. Those aren’t exactly eye-popping numbers, but it shows that he can contribute when called upon. This is the first slate of the season where we have actually been starved for value so his $3.5k price tag on DK puts him firmly on our radar. Jaden Bray (37 targets) and Brennan Presley (30 targets) should see a rise in usage as well. Bray is under $5k and the preferred option over Owens if salary isn’t a factor.
Brock Bowers, Georgia — It was a slow start to the season for Bowers as he caught just 13 passes for 134 yards in his first three games. Things have heated up though as he reeled in 24 receptions for 410 yards and 4 touchdowns in his last three. His price has finally caught up which will keep his rostership to a reasonable level. I love Bowers this week as he should continue the absolute tear he is on with Vandy providing little resistance. The blowout concern is real, and he could end up playing less than a full game but his upside is still massive here.
Tennessee WRs — Bru McCoy suffered a gruesome season-ending injury, and the targets will now become extremely concentrated in this receiver room. Squirrel White (26-276-0, 37 targets) is the industry’s preferred option and a player that I’m expecting to see a spike in rostership this week. I have no issue with White and think he is a fantastic overall play. The leverage opportunities with SuperShow favorite Ramel Keyton (14-226-3, 25 targets) are vast. Far less people will be using him despite being similarly priced to White and in the same exact situation with more usage expected. Dont’e Thornton (7-89-0, 13 targets) is expected back after missing a game and is an interesting GPP value.
FSU WRs — If you end up with any Jordan Travis lineups, then it’s a necessity to also use one of his receivers. Johnny Wilson is banged up and could be fairly limited, so we need to consider stud wideout Keon Coleman and main tight end Jaheim Bell. Coleman’s been phenomenal with 20 receptions for 278 yards and 6 touchdowns. Bell has caught 10 passes for 151 yards and a pair of scores. He wasn’t utilized much in their last game, but the staff has made a point to mention they’re going to get him more involved against Syracuse and there are plans to use him in the slot as well. Bell’s a very sneaky value play that could be used in a primary build if you’re struggling to make things fit.
Additional MME Options
Andrew Armstrong, Arkansas Ty Washington, Arkansas Jaylin Noel, Iowa State Corey Dyches, Maryland Kaden Prather, Maryland TJ Sheffield, Purdue Erick All, Iowa Donovan Brown, Syracuse Will Sheppard, Vanderbilt Rara Thomas, Georgia Marvin Harrison, Ohio State
FanDuel-Only Options
LSU WRs Luther Burden, Missouri Ricky Pearsall, Florida Miami WRs Xavier Legette, South Carolina Isaac Rex, BYU Tez Walker, North Carolina
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