There’s not another QB on this slate who has the upside of Ward, a legitimate Heisman and national title contender in a rivalry game that will have recruiting implications for years to come. The trouble with Ward, and why he is not just an automatic plug-and-play at this price, is he just doesn’t run the ball the way some of our other options do. Does he have a 30-point floor? Sure. Does he have a 50-point ceiling? He hasn’t done it yet, and a three-score game at home against an inexperienced QB on the other side doesn’t exactly seem like the likeliest of spots for him to hang his first 50 burger. This isn’t Jalen Milroe we’re talking about; this is a rich man’s Sam Hartman. At $8K he’s a great, safe play. At $10,500, it’s pretty tough to have any meat on the bone.
Everything I just said about Ward, the opposite is true about Jennings. He’s massively underpriced instead of overpriced — he has the passing floor in addition to rushing upside. He’s a comfortable favorite but not a three-score one. He’s still being integrated into the offense and didn’t start the season as QB1, much less with any Heisman or Natty hype, so I would suspect he’d be less owned even on a tough QB slate like this one than he should be relative to price and projection. We like using guys like that.
As for the numbers — they have been extremely efficient. Jennings put up 322-3 against Stanford on only 27 attempts and connected with eight different pass catchers with no single pass catcher accounting for more than 4 completions. He did lose RJ Maryland but has enough explosive weapons to continue to be efficient here. I would expect something to the effect of 250-3, while adding another 50-plus yards and a score on the ground, which is plenty at a $6.5K price tag.
It took damn near all season and a matchup with lowly Houston to finally get the Jalon Daniels we’ve been expecting since the end of the 2022 season, but he is back. While the momentum is trending in the right direction, so too is the price, and with Kansas expected to be competitive in this one and Kansas State perhaps coming into this one a bit overconfident after steamrolling West Virginia, all of the pieces are there for a vintage Daniels game to show up in a big way. We could easily get 200-2 through the air and another 100-1 on the ground, which much like Jennings, would destroy the price tag and make quick work of Cam Ward lineups.
It really, really pains me to have to suggest that we consider Weigman, but we have already made Graham Mertz a feature in these parts and so the Rubicon of touting bad quarterbacks has already been crossed, there’s no going back now. Weigman has put together impressive real-life wins in his return from injury, and while the stats haven’t quite followed yet, there’s a good chance they show up in a big way here against an overmatched LSU defense that capitalizes on big hits and big plays but does not have much discipline. This should lead to plenty of open space and the opportunity for big plays to explosive wideouts Jabre Barber and Noah Thomas.
Dude puts up literal Dylan Sampson numbers against Arkansas (21-101-3) and he doesn’t even get to $6K? OK, then.
If you don’t want to get on the Weigman crazy train (and I don’t blame you for that), but you do want exposure to a beatable LSU front, Moss is another great way to do that. He doesn’t have the highest ceiling, but his game against Mississippi State (17-65-2) was just fine, if a bit inefficient. Yes, he splits time with Amari Daniels, but Moss is still the 1A in a backfield that should get plenty of work against soft boxes, and he doesn’t break the bank.
The coaching staff has spoken highly of Allen coming off his work against Louisville. And this was no garbage time production, Allen scored a goal line TD with the game on the line to put Miami up 45-38 in the fourth quarter. Here’s the relevant coach speak for you to make your own decisions with regard to Allen’s usage projection in a likely blowout:
(OC) Dawson said running backs coach Matt Merritt suggested inserting Ajay Allen in the second half against Louisville, and Allen responded with five carries for 31 yards, including a touchdown. Dawson said Merritt indicated that Allen practiced well last week and “will give us a spark.” “Ajay came in and gave us a huge spark at the end of the game,” Dawson said. Cristobal said: “His change of pace, change of style, is going to help us.”
Many times we have these scenarios in our head about what certain teams, players, etc., are good at. Wisconsin is a monolithic Stone Age offense that runs into the line of scrimmage indefinitely and has an anemic downfield passing game. Penn State is a tough-as-nails run defense that would be a tough nut to crack for such an offense.
What if both of those things were just flat-out not true at the same time? Under Braedyn Locke, Wisconsin has become a deep shot bonanza, with talented wideout Vinny Anthony II leading that charge. This in turn opens things up for Walker, who has seen some extreme efficiency in a new age Luke Fickell offense for the Badgers. Penn State on the other hand got gashed repeatedly by Woody Marks and allowed a massive gainer and a total of 82 yards on 3 carries to change of pace back Quinten Joyner against a USC team that isn’t exactly known for having a dominant O-line or running game.
If both of these misconceptions go under the radar, Walker could be in for a big game at low ownership at a very reasonable price, which is a DFS dream.
You know who these guys are, and you know what they do. The trouble is neither of them get a ton of volume in the passing game, and so they are difficult to pair with their QBs, meaning you will need to pick and choose your lineup construction such that it is as follows:
Essentially, I am fine with and will probably want to emphasize any two pieces from this game so long as they don’t play for the same team.
Yes, this Kentucky offense is terrible and mainly just throws to Dane Key, but this is a starting RB who could get 20 carries behind a decent O-line playing a bad Auburn team and is near min priced, so it would be DFS tout malpractice to not give him a mention. If his projected ownership spikes and you want to be sneaky, you can also look to Jason Patterson who hasn’t seen a carry since Week 2.
You know what, just go watch the highlights from the SC game. It’s only a five-minute video and is one of the most ridiculous individual performances in recent memory.
If you’re biting the bullet on Cam Ward inflation, you’ll want to also pair him with some pass catchers. This is not a difficult group to figure out, but they are expensive. Restrepo is the alpha of course, but he’s priced like it and pairing him with Ward is going to leave you as a pauper elsewhere, so you if you can fit Restrepo into your build please do, otherwise continue reading.
Isaiah Horton (no one but Walt will appreciate this, but I am like 75% on typing out Ithiel Horton before correcting myself) is in play but not a must-have at $5,700, and Jacolby George is similarly in consideration but not necessary at $5,300. Sam Brown ($4,200) actually led the team in receiving yards against Louisville with 125, but it was his first time cracking the century mark all season and just his second time in the end zone, so you’d be hard-pressed to expect a similar result on his traditionally limited volume. TE Elijah Arroyo got blanked against Louisville, which is a bit of a tough pill when the team put up 52 points, but I would imagine he is a squeaky wheel candidate here, and at only $3,400 is the best value of the bunch.
Another case of WR whack-a-mole, the Kansas WRs will frustrate you if you try to pick the right one or reward you if you are able to sprinkle all of them across your lineups. I would insist on only allocating to lineups without Devin Neal and with Jalon Daniels, but in those Daniels lineups you’ll want to look at the following pass catchers. Lucas Grimm ($6,200) is the highest probability of the bunch to do slate breaking things, but he also goes cardio mode much more frequently than we want to see as DFS players, and not always because of game script. Lawrence Arnold ($4,300) is usually a steady option but doesn’t have a ton of upside. Quentin Skinner is the exact opposite with almost no floor and massive upside and has turned it on in their last two games. Jared Casey ($3,300) and Trevor Wilson ($3,100) aren’t quite non-factors but are just barely worth mentioning.
I will probably send up prioritizing Grimm and Skinner in Daniels builds, while also having some naked Daniels just to keep things spicy.
The big TE is getting plenty of looks as a security blanket for Michigan QB du jour Jack Tuttle, racking up 7 catches for 83 yards against Illinois a week ago. I would expect more of the same here, with even less resistance expected on the defensive side from Michigan State. We’ve seen in low totals, in particular with Iowa games, individual players can still have big games, and at a sub-$4.5K price point, Loveland would do quite well if he can lumber into 100-plus yards and a score.
With RJ Maryland going down SMU is going to need to find a go to pass catcher, and it was Smith that saw the most consistency and efficiency a week ago against Stanford. Moochie Dixon is very volatile, and Jake Bailey while steady in terms of target share doesn’t possess a lot of upside, so Smith represents the best combination of ceiling and point/$ value of the bunch. We saw him go 4-76-1 in a blowout against Stanford, and I would have to think with a more competitive game on the docket, we see him break the century mark and get even more involved volume wise.
If you subscribe to the theory (I do) that Avery Johnson is a little bit less likely than usual to run post-injury, then we will want to see what he can do airing it out, and while Jayce Brown underwhelmed last week, he is very clearly the go-to deep threat in this offense. He’s also only one game removed from a dominant performance against Colorado wherein he put up 6-121-2 and if not for gamescript would have likely continued his prolific ways against WVU last week. The bounceback ability, especially at this price point, is too much to pass up.
Both of these dudes were beasts against Iowa, and now get (weird to say) a lesser defense in Michigan. At under $4K, you’ve got to give them a look, even with suboptimal QB play in Aidan Chiles.
If you’re a masochist and grinded tape of A&M vs. Mississippi State like I am, you likely noticed that every time Conner Weigman had a third down, he looked to Barber to get him out of the jam. That kind of chemistry transcends the box score and will be a big reason for Barber’s success the rest of the season if he can be schemed significant volume in addition to what Weigman gets him organically. An explosive and underutilized option to this point, Walt has been banging the drum for the Jabre Barber breakout game for some time now, and while 6 catches for 92 yards is certainly a building block, we could see Barber to quite a bit more damage here, and at such a low price it would only take 100 yards and a score to elevate him into optimal status.