
We have another fantastic weekend of college football action across the country, which includes four top-25 matchups between Oklahoma-Texas, LSU-Missouri, Kentucky-Georgia and Notre Dame-Louisville.
As for my Week 5 best bets column, I went 2-0 as Penn State went under their 19.5 first-half team total, and Coastal Carolina-Georgia Southern went under 66.5 points. Thank goodness for the hook, as the Eagles and Chanticleers scored 66 points last Saturday night.
For this week’s best bets column below, I’ll highlight two games — I also wrote a betting preview for Oklahoma-Texas, which will be must-see TV to kick off Week 6.
Odds per DraftKings Sportsbook.
UCLA -3.5, O/U 60.5
It is shocking to see the Cougars as underdogs for the second consecutive week heading into Saturday afternoon’s Pac-12 contest against UCLA.
Washington went toe-to-toe with Oregon State and defeated them 38-35 last week, proving to the country and the rest of the Pac-12 that they are a contender. Cougars QB Cam Ward had another excellent game against the Beavers’ defense, completing 82.4% of his passes for 404 yards and four touchdowns.
Through five games this season, Ward has completed 74.6% of his passes for 1,390 yards and 13 touchdowns. Washington State will hope Ward can play mistake-free football against the Bruins’ defense, which is ranked fourth in the Pac-12 in interceptions (6). UCLA’s defense has also allowed three passing TDs, but they haven’t played a ton of good QBs this season (outside of Coastal Carolina’s Grayson McCall).
Offensively, the Bruins are rolling with freshman quarterback Dante Moore, who struggled in last week’s loss to Utah (15/35 for 234 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT ) and sacked seven times. Moore is completing 54.7% of his passes for 849 yards, eight TDs and two interceptions this season. His best game came against San Diego State (17/27 for 290 yards, 3 TDs) Sept. 9, but the Aztecs are struggling mightily this season.
The good news for Moore is he won’t have to do it alone Saturday as he can lean on Ball State transfer Carson Steele. Steele has 272 yards and two touchdowns on 41 carries and could be the equalizer to slow down the Cougars’ defense. Washington State has struggled to stop the run this season (132 rushing yards per game) and gave up 242 rushing yards in last week’s win over Oregon State.
Nevertheless, I still believe the Cougars are the better football team and have shown that they can beat Wisconsin and Oregon State. Now granted, both of those wins came at home, but the Cougars are 2-0 ATS as an underdog, which has to count for something. Take Washington St. to cover the spread on the road.
Washington State +3.5 (-115)
Fresno State -6, O/U 44.5
For my last bet for Week 6, I’ll spotlight an exciting matchup in the Mountain West between No. 25-ranked Fresno State and Wyoming. The Bulldogs are still undefeated (5-0) after taking down Nevada 27-9 to open up conference play last week. However, the Cowboys (4-1) are a threat to pull an upset as they have a signature win over Texas Tech.
With a game of this magnitude in primetime, I’d usually take the spread for one of these teams or the moneyline. However, I’ll mix it up and play Fresno State’s team total, which is at O/U 25.5 points. The Bulldogs have a phenomenal offense led by former UCF QB Mikey Keene, who is completing 69% of his passes for 1,474 yards, 14 touchdowns and four interceptions. Keene has been sacked 13 times this season, but it hasn’t stopped Fresno State from scoring points.
This season, the Bulldogs are scoring 36.4 points per game, which is good for third in the Mountain West. Fresno State has gone over 25.5 points in all five games. They will try to make it six straight games against the Cowboys’ defense that allows 25.2 points per game.
Wyoming has allowed more than 25.5 points three times this season, but they won two of those games. For Fresno State to hit the OVER, they’ll need to get Elijah Gilliam going on the ground. Gilliam was held to 63 yards and two touchdowns in the last two games.
Wyoming has struggled to stop the run this season, allowing 162 yards per game. Also, the Cowboys’ opponent red zone percentage is relatively high at 93.75% (109 in the country), according to TeamRankings.com. Therefore, I expect the Bulldogs to score some points on the road as they look to win their 15th straight game.
Fresno State Team Total OVER 25.5 points (-115)