Bowl Slate Preview (Dec. 28)

It was another solid day of college football bowl game madness on both the DFS and betting fronts Friday. However, we aren’t done yet — we have a solid lineup that includes eight different games on tap for Saturday. 

As always, the opt-out news will be important so if you’re playing you will want to stay vigilant by checking the CFB Discords on FTN often. We will be breaking down each game from a DFS and betting perspective. Let’s get into it.

Fenway Bowl

UConn vs. North Carolina

The media has been buzzing about the UNC program recently with the high-profile addition of Bill Belichick as their head coach, and It’s got to feel good for the players who plan to stick around for the future. But the focus is on securing a bowl game victory, which can help springboard them into the 2025 season. A win here would be their first in a bowl game since 2019.

UConn’s enjoyed a solid season that almost nobody is talking about, and head coach Jim Mora did this season to help his team to an 8-4 record after winning just three games a year ago. Mora and his staff worked the portal as well as anyone and the results were there as they won their most games since the 2010 season.

The Tar Heels are thin at QB but do have starter Jacolby Criswell, and he will need to play at a high level for the team to come out on time. He threw for 2,452 yards and 15 TDs to 6 INTs. He will have the majority of his usual pass-catchers as well, but star RB Omarion Hampton has opted out to focus on draft prep, and that is obviously a big loss. Davion Gause is a great play, for the showdown format as he should absorb a lot of the touches left behind by Hampton.

UConn has dealt with a ton of important opt-outs as well, so it’s going to come down to which team can execute better with some secondary players. Durell Robinson and Skyler Bell have decided to transfer, but Bell has indicated he wants to play, which would be a huge boost for the Huskies offense.

Joe Fagnano will lead the team at QB and has come on strong now that he appears to be fully healthy. With Robinson out, Cam Edwards will operate as the RB1. He has shared carries with Robinson for most of the season but should see 25-plus touches here. The strength of the Heels defense has been their running game but it’s not exactly the same unit due to players leaving so Edwards is a solid option for DFS purposes.

The Heels are favored here, but I value the UConn program more in this matchup due to having the majority of their team intact, and their head coach Jim Mora always does a great job of preparing his guys. Give me the Huskies outright.

DFS Targets

Cam Edwards
Jacolby Criswell
Skyler Bell
Davion Gause
John Copenhaver

Best Bets

UConn ML (+114, DraftKings)

Pinstripe Bowl

Boston College vs. Nebraska

Boston College can come into this game relatively care-free as they have very limited expectations to close this year out. Thomas Castellanos moved on to another program a few weeks back, and they’ll be without multiple secondary receivers who have also decided to leave for greener pastures. Meanwhile, Nebraska has lost two of their top playmakers in Dante Dowdell and Isaiah Neyor along with eight defenders from a group that was a legitimate top-20 unit. BC has a chance here and there may be a good early live betting opportunity if they can put pressure on true freshman QB Dylan Raiola right away.

Kye Robichaux (725 yards) will look to end his collegiate career on a positive note, and he has operated as a bell cow-esque back in the last four games, with 20-plus carries in each. His dominance has made Treshaun Ward a total afterthought, while Jordan McDonald has jumped up to the RB2 spot in the pecking order.

Grayson James has played admirably since taking over the starting gig at QB, leading the team to wins in two of the last three games. Lewis Bond (60-590-3) and TE Kamari Morales (26-311-6) are the top options in the receiving game.

Dylan Raiola has held down the quarterback job all year long, but he predictably has seen his fair share of struggles. He models his game after Patrick Mahomes and tries to emulate him in every way, but it’s time for the on-field results to come. This will serve as an opportunity to excite the fanbase as they prepare for 2025. The Cornhuskers have been extremely aggressive in the portal so far and have added several marquee weapons to their war chest for Raiola.

Jacory Barney (52-431-0, 130 rushing yards) is a versatile youngster who is exactly the type of player that thrives in bowl game settings, so watch out for him, especially without Neyor. Jahmal Banks (40-508-3) and Tommy Fidone (31-323-0) are also in the mix.

My favorite play from this game is Emmett Johnson. He has been a productive back all year long but is especially intriguing now that Dowdell is gone. Johnson has rushed for 523 yards on 102 carries while also catching 34 passes for 249 yards. I’m expecting the offense to lean on him heavily.

This game has the makings of a slugfest, and the weather forecast doesn’t look particularly great either. Points are likely going to be hard to come by, and if the team can make things chaotic early on for Raiola, they’ll be in a position to leave with the victory. Despite their player losses, Nebraska still has a tremendous amount of talent available, and a fast start will go a long way toward them securing a W.

DFS Targets

Emmett Johnson
Jacory Barney
Jahmal Banks
Thomas Fidone
Kye Robichaux
Kamari Morales

Best Bets

Under 46.5 Total Points (-110, DraftKings)

New Mexico Bowl

TCU vs. Louisiana

Louisiana has major issues at quarterback with Sun Belt OPOY Ben Woolridge still dealing with an injury and backup Chandler Fields carted off the field in the conference championship. Woolridge is probable but hasn’t played since Week 12, so we will see how effective he can be.

At the RB position, the team will have Bill Davis and Zylan Perry to split carries with Dre’Lyn Washington in the transfer portal. Davis threw up a negative score during conference championship week, which left a sour taste in a lot of people’s mouth. He is an interesting tournament play going against a fantasy friendly TCU defense.

Tight end Terrance Carter is gone, which is tough since he has been one of their best pass-catchers. Lance LeGendre is the top receiver remaining and is the favorite target for every QB on the roster. He reeled in 48 receptions for 814 yards and 6 touchdowns this season.

TCU will be without some major playmakers themselves with top offensive weapons Savion Williams and Jack Bech opting out to focus on the draft. They will also be without their starting center and RB Cam Cook. 

The Horned Frogs have utilized a committee backfield for most of the season but with Cook and Savion out, it opens up a ton of usage for the rest of the team. I’ve talked a lot about younger players that have a tendency to break out during Bowl games and Jeremy Payne is someone that I definitely have my eye on. He will get plenty of carries along with Trent Battle, but it’s the former that has shown more intriguing explosiveness. I would love to see him get 15-plus touches in this matchup.

We can expect TCU to throw the ball a ton as well with QB Josh Hoover running the offense. He has thrown for nearly 3,700 yards and 23 TDs on the season. There is still enough talent in the receiver room after opt-outs with big-play threat JP Richardson (52-680-1) and Eric McAlister (31-675-4) around.

We have been hot riding small underdogs and staying away from bigger favorites. I do think TCU has a legitimate shot to win by double-digits, but bowl season tends to get a bit crazy as you know. I’m much more comfortable with the total in this one as I believe it sails over the 59 it currently sits at on most books.

DFS Targets

Lance Legendre
Bill Davis (if you can stomach it)
Jeremy Payne
Josh Hoover
Eric McAlister
JP Richardson

Best Bets

Over 59 Total Points (-108, DraftKings)
Jeremy Payne Over 43.5 Rushing Yards (-114, FanDuel)
Josh Hoover Over 286.5 Passing Yards (-114, FanDuel)
JP Richardson Over 70.5 Receiving Yards (-114, FanDuel)

Pop-Tarts Bowl

Miami FL vs. Iowa State

The Cyclones don’t have any major opt-outs as of now, but they have suspended one of their running backs Jaylon Jackson after he was arrested earlier this month. This leaves Carson Hansen and Abu Sama to split the backfield duties. Neither are particularly appealing to me as the Hurricanes defense has been fairly stout against the run. Sama has had “fumblitis” lately, so we could see more touches for Hansen in this spot.

Jaylin Noel and Jayden Higgins are studs at the receiver position, and both are expected to be on NFL rosters very soon. They haven’t opted out yet, but they’re definitely candidates to do so. QB Rocco Becht is a full go, and this sets up as a game in which he will probably have to throw a lot. He had a monster performance in last year’s bowl game against Memphis in which he threw for nearly 500 yards and 3 TDs. Can he do it again?

The Hurricanes offense should be able to take advantage of some of the Cyclones deficiencies, namely on the defensive line. Iowa State was 120th in pass rush this year and we saw how ASU took advantage of that on their way to a 45-19 win. The real question here is just how motivated the Canes will actually be. QB Cam Ward, RB Damien Martinez and WR Xavier Restrepo are all expected to play per head coach Mario Cristobal, but all of them may decide it’s better to move onto draft preparations. All week we were told Tahj Brooks was going to give it a go for Texas Tech and we saw at the last minute he ended up sitting out. Additionally, they’ll be without their WR3 Isaiah Horton after he decided to transfer to Alabama. This is a game that we have to be ready for pertinent news, because it’ll affect the betting markets a lot more than most.

A name to watch is freshman running back Jordan Lyle. He flashed explosiveness throughout the early part of the season and fits the mold of players who break out in bowl games that I’ve talked about at length. In limited opportunities he rushed for 366 yards and 4 TDs with a YPC of 8.1. The Cyclones have given up almost 180 YPG on the ground this year and were decimated by ASU’s Cam Skattebo in the conference championship game. I’m calling my shot with Lyle to score a TD and have a breakout game.

DFS Targets

Jordan Lyle
Jacolby George
Elijah Arroyo
Rocco Becht
Jaylin Noel
Jayden Higgins

Best Bets

Over 57.5 Total Points (-110, FanDuel)
Jordan Lyle Anytime TD (+500, FanDuel)

Arizona Bowl

Colorado State vs. Miami OH

The Arizona Bowl sponsored by Snoop Dogg has quite a bit of hype, as you can imagine with a legendary name attached to it. The teams facing off aren’t nearly as exciting, but there are some intriguing targets here nonetheless. 

Miami OH will be without two of their top wideouts Reggie Virgil and Javon Tracy as they transferred out of the program to higher tier programs. Cade McDonald (49-606-3) will see a ton of targets while TE Jack Coldiron (11-103-0) and RB Kevin Davis (27-218-2) will make up the rest of their aerial attack.

Six-year starter (you heard that right) Brett Gabbert will be playing his final collegiate game, and you can rest assured that the team will be motivated to send him off with a win. He is just 200 yards away from passing Ben Roethlisberger for second on the school’s all-time passing yards leaderboard. Running back Keyon Mozee is a 1,000-yard rusher, and he will test a CSU defense that has been solid against the run this year. Mozee is uber important as they are 8-0 when he eclipses 90 rushing yards and 0-5 when failing to reach 50 or more. The offense knows who pays the bills and will ensure Keyon gets a sizable workload.

CSU reached a bowl game for the first time in six years, and they haven’t won one since 2013. Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi is looking to lead the Rams to a 9-win season and has thrown for over 2,456 yards this year. The RB duo of Avery Morrow (956 yards) and Justin Marshall (683 yards) will have their work cut out for them against a very good RedHawks defense. They got blasted by the Ohio Bobcats recently, but they don’t have a Parker Navarro type on the Rams roster.

Deep threat Caleb Goodie has transferred to Cincy, which leaves Armani Winfield (37-338-2) and Vince Brown (21-215-3) as the relevant pass-catchers. Jamari Person has entered the portal as well, so his status seems to be up in the air for now.

DFS Targets

Keyon Mozee
Cade McDonald

Best Bets

Miami OH ML (-130, DraftKings)

Military Bowl

NC State vs. ECU

This is easily my favorite game of the day between two programs that know each other very well and will treat it seriously. A win would be meaningful for both programs as they look to the future for better days. 

ECU’s season turned around when they fired Mike Houston and interim Blake Harrell went 4-1, which gave the administration enough confidence to drop the interim label from his title. This has been a potent offense with QB Katin Houser especially fun to watch. He took over for the ineffective Jake Garcia around midseason and has flourished with the reins. He has thrown for 1,859 yards and 18 TDs to 9 INTs while possessing a little mobility as well. 

Rahjai Harris is close to hitting the 1,000-yard mark so we can expect plenty of work for him, especially in the first half. He has been playing some of the best football of his career the last few weeks.

The Pirates will be without two important pieces to their high-octane offense, with Winston Wright declaring for the draft and Chase Sowell transferring to Iowa State. There are still some intriguing options here with Anthony Smith (38-767-6) taking the de facto alpha role and freshman Yannick Smith ascending up the pecking order lately. Yannick has 60-plus yards in three straight games and has scored in three of his last four. He is just $3.1k on Dk and is one of the higher upside values of the day.

There is reason for optimism if you’re a Wolfpack fan, and a victory over ECU would be a great finish in a year that had higher expectations in the ACC. CJ Bailey has gone through some growing pains but has seemingly settled down and has developed into a very good dual-threat QB with plenty of untapped potential still. He has thrown for 2,183 yards and 14 TDs while also racking up over 250 on the ground. I like his chances of having a big game against a very beatable ECU offense.

At RB, it’s all about Hollywood Smothers for me. The Wolfpack use a committee approach in the backfield, but Jordan Waters and Kendrick Raphael haven’t moved the needle much this season. Instead, we have seen some real explosiveness from Smothers, especially lately. He has rushed for at least 79 yards in three of his last four while scoring 5 times in that same span. He’s also more than capable as a pass-catcher out of the backfield with 17 receptions for 221 yards. He will likely be low-rostered by the masses as the industry focuses on Bailey but I actually like the idea of pairing them both together.

KC Conception has transferred after a disappointing season, but the Pack have a dearth of other options to lean on in the passing game. It’s a bit of a mixed bag though, and I only have confidence in one player for a main team build and that’s TE Justin Joly. Despite rumors saying otherwise, Joly is planning to return for the 2025 season and will look to build on his solid 2024 campaign. He caught 40 passes for 620 yards and 3 TDs, which is extremely impressive considering it was a down year for the program. If they bounce back next year and threaten for a playoff spot, Joly could potentially be a 1,000-yard receiver at the tight end position.

DFS Targets

Katin Houser
Yannick Smith
Anthony Smith
CJ Bailey
Hollywood Smothers
Justin Joly

Best Bets

NC State -7 (-105, DraftKings)
Anthony Smith Over 61.5 Receiving Yards (-114, FanDuel)
Katin Houser Over 232.5 Passing Yards (-114, FanDuel)

Alamo Bowl

BYU vs. Colorado

This is another game where we can expect both teams to be in full “try-hard” mode. It pits two Big-12 teams against one another, and both of them are relatively clean from opt-outs or injuries. Colorado was able to convince Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter to play thanks to what is being reported as an extremely lucrative insurance policy. Anything is truly possible in the NIL/transfer portal era of college sports. With Sanders and Hunter playing, we should expect all of the Buffaloes’ NFL-ready prospects to give it a go as well.

BYU’s Jake Reftzlaff has cooled off after a very strong start to the season, and that was pretty much the theme for the entire team as they fell out of playoff contention quickly after Week 11. Retzlaff is a sneaky dual threat with over 2,700 passing yards and 388 on the ground. He has accounted for 25 touchdowns (19 passing/6 rushing). 

In the RB room, Miles Davis has hit the portal and Hinckley Ropati is injured, but their best back is LJ Martin and he is expected to be a full-go. Martin missed a few games early but ended up with 630 rushing yards and 7 total TDs (5 rushing/2 receiving). Darius Lassiter (43-679-4) and Chase Roberts (49-792-3) have been the primary weapons for Retzlaff this year. Special shout to deep threat JoJo Phillips, though — he isn’t going to get volume, but he is a legitimate game-breaker and this is exactly the type of game where they will look to take a shot with him. It’s also worth noting that Lassiter is going to miss the first half of the game for disciplinary reasons. This further gives my guy Phillips an opportunity to shine.

The BYU defense was solid at times this year but lacked discipline, which is evidenced by the fact that they ranked outside the top 100 in broken tackles allowed. They’ve been worse against the run, but Colorado doesn’t have the personnel to fully tackle advantage there and will instead rely on the arm of Shedeur Sanders as they’ve done all season.

Sanders has looked the part as an NFL-ready quarterback, throwing for 3,926 yards and 35 TDs to 8 INTs. He has a trio of options to target in Heisman winner Travis Hunter (92-1152-14), LaJohntay Wester (70-880-10) and Will Sheppard (47-617-6).

The market has pushed the total down a bit, which is a product of both teams having the majority of their starters on both sides of the ball. As much as I’ve liked BYU this year, I’m a believer in this Colorado team right now and this group will end their final year together with a big win over a conference foe.

DFS Targets

LJ Martin
JoJo Phillips
Shedeur Sanders
Travis Hunter
LaJohntay Wester
Will Sheppard

Best Bets

Colorado -3 (-112, FanDuel)
Chase Roberts Under 62.5 Receiving Yards (-114, FanDuel)

Independence Bowl

Army vs. Louisiana Tech

The Bulldogs of Louisiana Tech are here because Marshall had to pull out after literally half of their roster hit the transfer portal. With a 5-7 record, they weren’t eligible but became a choice after the Marshall news. This is a pretty tough spot for them going up against a really good Army program with a Heisman finalist at quarterback. They’re two score dogs and this is one of the few times I’m confidently taking the big favorite in a bowl game.

Evan Bullock is the quarterback, and they have a litany of talented offensive options in RB Omri Wiggins and WR Jimmy Holiday, but the time of possession issue is going to be their down field. As you know, Army runs a variation of the triple option, and they’re going to drain the lock with their efficiency. It also doesn’t help that their best wideout Tru Edwards is moving on to another program, which definitely lowers their offensive potential even further.

The Black Knights lead the country with 289.9 rushing yards per game and have been a dominant force all year long in games they aren’t facing Notre Dame or Navy. The Captain America of CFB, Bryson Daily finished sixth in the final Heisman rankings and comes into this matchup with gaudy numbers. He has rushed for over 1,500 yards and a ridiculous 29 TDs on the ground, but he isn’t just a one-trick pony. He has also passed for 942 yards and 9 TDs to 4 INTs. They run a modernized version of the triple-option, and it’s very difficult for most defenses to contain.

Kanye Udoh has transferred to Arizona State, which is somewhat hilarious considering it’s a move from the Army to one of the biggest party schools in America. Ordinarily, it would be a death blow to lose your RB1, but Army will keep on trucking along with Daily, Noah Short (542 yards) and WR Casey Reynolds (18-436-3). 

I would love to see some additional work for former quarterback Tyrell Robinson, but he is far too risky to use in DFS due to lack of touches. He was a versatile option for years as the starter at Army before injuries derailed his career.

As I’ve said before, I typically shy away from big favorites in bowl games because things tend to get whacky this time of year and opt-outs can cause a lot of disruption to overall continuity. However, this Army team is far superior to Louisiana Tech and should be able to finish long, drawn-out drives with touchdowns, which will ultimately put the Bulldogs in a deep hole with minimal time on the clock each quarter.

DFS Targets

Bryson Daily (top overall play on the slate)
Noah Short
Hayden Reed
Jimmy Holiday

Best Bets

Army -14.5 (-108, DraftKings)
Bryson Daily Over 149.5 Rushing Yards (-114, FanDuel)