The Candidates to Be the Overall QB1 in 2023

Welcome to our “No. 1 Overall” series for 2023, where we take a look at which players are most likely to finish as the top fantasy scorer at their position. Up today: QBs.

This series is as simple as it sounds. We’re going to go through the QBs — in tiers — that have the best chance of finishing as the overall QB1 in 2023. Let’s get to it.

Keep in mind these are not fantasy QB rankings, but a tiered list of players most likely to finish as the overall fantasy QB1 in 2022. 

Tier 1 Overall Fantasy QB1 Candidates in 2023

• Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
• Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
• Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles

There’s not much to say about this trio that you don’t already know. And it’s a pick-your-poison situation right now, as Mahomes (ADP of 18.5), Hurts (ADP of 19.8) and Allen (ADP of 19.9) are all literally going back-to-back-to-back in early fantasy drafts.

You won’t get much consensus on the exact order to rank these three, but for the purpose of this article, they are all Tier 1 overall QB1 candidates.

Here’s what I wrote about Mahomes in this piece last year (while mistakenly ranking him in Tier 2):

Mahomes would be in Tier 1 if he still had Tyreek Hill. But Hill’s loss has the potential to really handicap Mahomes’ ceiling. Mahomes is still great, obviously, hence his status at the top of the Tier 2 pile, but we can’t act like the threat of a lower ceiling isn’t there with Hill gone.

Well, the “threat” ended up being a nothing-burger. He’s locked in.

Here’s what I wrote about Hurts when ranking him in Tier 4: “If he’s able to take a big leap as a passer this year, he’s a darkhorse candidate.” I think I nailed that one, as Hurts launched 22 passing TDs against just 6 INTs last year and is in the running for QB1 overall in 2023 again.

And Allen is Allen, an overall QB1 (or threat to be) in three straight seasons. Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis return, as does Dawson Knox. The team also spent a first-round pick on Dalton Kincaid, and James Cook — a pass-catching specialist — will likely get more work in his second season. Allen will be as good as ever.

Tier 2 Overall Fantasy QB1 Candidates in 2023

• Justin Fields, Chicago Bears
• Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens

Jackson was in Tier 1 last year, and Fields was in my Tier 5 (calling him a “joker card”), but the deck has been shuffled in 2023 and both land in Tier 2. 

These players are being drafted about 1-1.5 rounds after the Tier 1 QBs, with Jackson coming off around ADP 31 and Fields at ADP 37.

Jackson’s 2023 season is no longer in question, as he signed with the Ravens in early May to be paired up with Mark Andrews, Rashod Bateman, Zay Flowers and Odell Beckham. It’s the best receiving cast he’s ever had. Todd Monken is also the new offensive coordinator, so we may see a lot more passing from the Ravens this year. Jackson certainly thinks he can take a leap as a passer:

After a rough first month of 2022, Fields caught fire. He finished as a top-10 weekly fantasy QB every week in Weeks 5-15, and he was the overall QB3 in that span on a per-game basis (behind only Mahomes and Hurts). On the year, he threw for only 2,242 yards and 17 TDs, but he added 1,143 and 8 TDs on the ground.

Like Hurts leading into 2022, if Fields can take a step up as a passer — watch out. (And the Bears are doing their best to make that happen, giving fields a bona fide WR1 in DJ Moore.) 

Tier 3 Overall Fantasy QB1 Candidates in 2023

• Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers
• Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals

I’m tempted to put more in this group, but I really think it’s just these two. If these QBs ran more, they’d be up in Tier 1 or 2, but as it stands, these are just elite passers with elite weapons:

It’s not insane for a pure passer to finish as the top overall QB even in today’s game. Tom Brady was the No. 2 fantasy QB in 2021. Burrow was fourth last year. Aaron Rodgers was third in 2020.

Tier 4 Overall Fantasy QB1 Candidates in 2023

• Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars
• Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
• Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns
• Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins
• Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals

So, yeah, this group is weird.

Lawrence is extremely similar to the Tier 3 group, but I still put him a tier below as we just haven’t seen it for a full season from him yet. On a per-game basis, Lawrence was the overall QB7 last year. He just wasn’t consistent. He had five games as a weekly top-five fantasy QB, but he also had seven games where he finished outside the top 15. More consistency will see Lawrence leap in fantasy value.

Prescott, Watson and Murray are all similar in that they have rushing ability and solid talent around them. Prescott has CeeDee Lamb and Brandin Cooks, Watson has Amari Cooper (and the best RB in Nick Chubb), and Murray has Marquise Brown and DeAndre Hopkins (at least for now).

Murray probably has the best ability out of this group to finish as QB1 overall as he’s the best rusher, so I could have put him in Tier 3, but his injury coupled with Hopkins’ unknown pushes him to Tier 4.

And Tua is in this group just because he has Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Just an absolutely monstrous group of WRs.

Tier 5 Overall Fantasy QB1 Candidates in 2023

• Daniel Jones, New York Giants
• Jared Goff, Detroit Lions

Call me crazy, I don’t care. Jones finished as the overall QB11 last year, and the Giants bought into him for 2023 and surrounded him with more talent. It’s not likely he takes such a big leap, but it’s possible.

Goff was quietly a top-12 fantasy QB last year as well, and that was with Jamaal Williams leading the league in rushing TDs. This one may seem outrageous, but in 2018 with the high-powered Rams offense, Goff was the overall QB6 in fantasy. I think we seem something similar in 2023.