Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Both the Chicago Bears (duh) and Minnesota Vikings will be looking for their franchise quarterbacks in this year’s NFL draft. Meanwhile, the Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers are looking to build on their successful 2023 campaigns.
Let’s take a look at how these teams need to address the draft this year.
(Check out the NFL Draft Wish List series: AFC East | NFC East | AFC North | AFC South | NFC South | AFC West | NFC West)
2024 NFL Draft Wish List: NFC North
Detroit Lions
- First pick: 1st round, 29th overall
- Total first-rounders: 1
- Total selections: 7
The 2023 season was one Detroit fans have been waiting for. Not only did the Lions finally compete but they were one game — no, one half — away from the Super Bowl. Detroit looks like one of the five best teams in the NFL entering the 2024 campaign, though, it will be difficult to repeat the multiple home runs they hit during the 2023 NFL Draft. Jahmyr Gibbs, Sam LaPorta and Brian Branch all had stellar rookie campaigns and this team suddenly doesn’t have many holes on the roster.
Although Detroit did add to their secondary this offseason by trading for Carlton Davis and signing Amik Robertson, they could still add more to that room. We’ll see if the consensus top-five defensive backs are all gone by the time the Lions are on the clock but if someone falls, don’t be surprised if Brad Holmes sprints the card in. Whether it is Cooper DeJean, who mostly played on the outside but has experience at starting safety. Or if it is someone like Kool-Aid McKinstry, who has a tremendous understanding of coverages and plenty of press coverage reps. Both players would be outstanding additions to the Lions toward the end of the first round.
In the later rounds, guard is absolutely on the table for Detroit. They did just add Kevin Zeitler, but the 34-year-old is on just a one-year deal and the Lions aren’t loaded at guard behind him and Graham Glasgow. Detroit could target Christian Haynes at 61st overall, who has an awesome first step which would make him an ideal fit for an offense that utilizes a ton of pin-and-pull concepts in the run game. Finally, I think the Lions should add a wide receiver at some point of the draft. Amon-Ra St. Brown is a star and hopefully Jameson Williams has some sort of breakout in year three. But Josh Reynolds, who played 71% of the snaps and ran a route on 76% of dropbacks last year, is now in Denver. At 73rd overall, I like the idea of Detroit targeting either Washington’s Ja’Lynn Polk or Devontez Walker from UNC. Walker has 4.36 speed and can make explosive plays down the field while also creating space for St. Brown, Gibbs and LaPorta underneath.
Green Bay Packers
- First pick: 1st round, 25th overall
- Total first-rounders: 1
- Total selections: 11
After a middling start to the season, Green Bay turned it on down the stretch thanks to the breakout year from quarterback Jordan Love. One year removed from moving on from Aaron Rodgers, both the future and present both look bright in Green Bay, and they have 11 selections to help them out this season. Last year, Green Bay drafted multiple pass-catchers to help Love and this year, they should go the route of the offensive line. David Bakhtiari is no longer with the team, and while Rasheed Walker and Zach Tom are solid starting tackles, they need more there. Tyler Guyton is an insanely athletic right tackle but is still relatively new to the position. He could sit behind Tom and Walker for a year and then has the athleticism and upside to shine in his second season. And it is worth noting that Guyton had a top-30 visit with the Packers. Graham Barton from Duke should also be on Green Bay’s radar, though he could be an interior offensive lineman at the NFL level.
Of course, Green Bay once again has to fix their run defense. In 2023, the Packers allowed 2.50 yards after contact per rush (fifth most), as well as the fifth-most rushing yards per game (128.3). They can go a few directions to improve the run defense in the draft, whether it is on the defensive line or at linebacker. A few players that stand out are defensive tackle T’Vondre Sweat and linebacker Edgerrin Cooper. Green Bay has a need at linebacker and Cooper is not only physical and aggressive against the run but was asked to spy mobile quarterbacks in college, which is also an area the Packers have struggled in. In 2023 they allowed 24.6 rushing yards per game to opposing signal callers, the third most in football. They also allowed the eighth and second-most rushing yards per game to the position in 2022 and 2021.
Minnesota Vikings
- First pick: 1st round, 11th overall
- Total first-rounders: 2
- Total selections: 9
The Vikings showed their hand once they acquired the 23rd overall selection from the Texans this offseason. And after Kirk Cousins signed with the Falcons, it shouldn’t surprise anyone. Minnesota will be trading up for a quarterback. The question, however, is just how far they ultimately move up. They can package 11th and 23rd overall to get into the top-six, allowing them to select J.J. McCarthy. But perhaps they try to move up a bit more for Drake Maye. But don’t let last year’s lack of volume fool you.
McCarthy can play.
He has good arm strength and touch and has plenty of experience operating under center in a pro-style offense. McCarthy is comfortable turning his back to the defense off play-action and also possesses the athleticism to keep defenses honest and extend plays. He’d be a great fit in Kevin O’Connell’s offense and would enjoy throwing passes to Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, Aaron Jones and, eventually, T.J. Hockenson. It does appear to be chalk that McCarthy lands in Minnesota at this point, but we’ll see.
Assuming the Vikings do package both of their first-rounders to get their quarterback, it leaves them pretty thin the rest of the draft. Their next selection wouldn’t come until 108th overall, and I’d expect the Vikings to take some shots at guard and in the secondary the rest of the draft. But the clear goal for this draft is for Minnesota to find their next franchise quarterback.
Chicago Bears
- First pick: 1st round, 1st overall
- Total first-rounders: 2
- Total selections: 4
Surprise. Caleb Williams will be a member of the Chicago Bears.
It was expected all along but was confirmed the moment Chicago traded Justin Fields to Pittsburgh. The Bears also added D’Andre Swift, Keenan Allen and Gerald Everett this offseason, giving Williams perhaps the best group of weapons a rookie quarterback has ever had. He’s an elite prospect that often had to carry USC and could have similar success as a rookie as we saw from C.J. Stroud last season.
It’ll be exciting to watch Williams in Chicago, but it isn’t as exciting to talk about because, well, there’s no mystery. The real discussion, however, starts with the 9th overall selection. Before the trade for Keenan Allen, I would have penciled in Rome Odunze here. But now the Bears really have some options. They could still go with Odunze and just load up at wideout. They could go best available player or add to the defensive line with someone like Dallas Turner or Laiatu Latu. But I do think, considering Chicago only has four total selections this year, that a trade back is very possible. Perhaps a team like the Buffalo Bills, who just traded away Stefon Diggs and have 11 picks in this draft, put together a package to move up and draft Diggs’ replacement. But if the Bears stay put, I don’t think the addition of Allen should discourage them from drafting Odunze.
