Whitestone’s Waiver Watch: NFBC Main Event (6/10)

The Batting is Not Average

MLB Counter = 40.4% of the season complete

We’ve completed two-fifths of the baseball season, so I thought it was a good time to look at one of the toughest categories to manage – the elusive batting average. Legend has it that if you don’t get batting average early, you won’t get it at all, so we’ll take a look at the Main Event ADP of the leaders in the category. But first, here’s an update on MLB runs, home runs and batting averages to date.

As you can see in the table below, runs are well below 2023 and down near (but not below) the 2022 runs per game total – at 4.33. Home runs are down well below 2023 and even below 2022 at 1.04 per game. And batting average? It’s also way below 2023 and even lower than the 2022 level of .243 (which if you recall was before MLB amended the shift rules). Will this year beat this .240 level or finish in the .230’s? It could be the latter…

Note: Next week I’ll be traveling, so the article will be shorter than usual

MLB Runs, HRs Per Game + BA (as of June 8)

My full detailed assessment and analysis of the batting average production is below.

Dodgers and Catchers

But even in this mediocre world of hitters, there are a select few players who seem to have no problem accumulating base hits. Below, I’ve listed the top 20 batters who qualify for the batting average title as of June 8 (Saturday). Sure enough, we find six first-round players who are providing excellent support for fantasy batting average – Bobby Witt Jr., Juan Soto, Mookie Betts, Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Judge and Freddie Freeman. Then there are four more who were expected to provide value and were taken in the top 100 – Vladimir Guerrero Jr., William Contreras, Adley Rutschman and Will Smith (three catchers!). The other 10 entrants could be labeled a surprise, with the exception of MLB batting average leader Luis Arraez, now at a lofty .337. Arraez’s teammate Jurickson Profar, however, is a big surprise. Batting an incredible .325, he was mostly added on waivers and has really never shown this kind of bat-to-ball skill.

Also a surprise is the batting average of Marcell Ozuna. He was supposed to help in home runs and RBI, but he is also hitting at an impressive .317 clip. Salvador Perez, the fourth of five catchers on this list, also was supposed to be a big help in power but not average. But he sits at a comfortable .308 and has shown no signs of slowing down.  A group of three middle infielders are next, all of whom are somewhat surprising. They include Masyn Winn, Jeremy Pena and Brice Turang. These three are part of a group of just 14 qualified hitters above the .300 batting average line. The average Main Event ADP of these 20 still is a reasonable 140.3, so it’s much more predictable than our look at the ERA leaders a couple of weeks ago (this counts Profar at a conservative 450 ADP). So there is some truth to the notion that if you can get a batting average anchor like the six first-round players below (or maybe just draft a catcher?) you’ll be in good shape in the category. Or maybe just roster Dodgers? They have four players in the top 20 – Betts (#6), Ohtani (#7), Smith (#17) and Freeman (#18).

Batting Average Leaders 2024 (as of June 8)

NFBC Main Event FAAB #12

In FAAB #12 Sunday, the majority of bidders were still bargain hunters. The top 10 widest acquisitions this week are in the chart below, and Captain Jack Suwinski (PIT), who returned to the majors (and visits Coors Field this week), was the widest pickup (added in 47 of 57 leagues). Rookie Cade Povich (BAL), who is in the rotation for at least this coming week was next, picked up in 46 leagues. Another rookie, Spencer Horwitz (TOR), was the only other player added in 40 or more leagues. The only significant average winning bid among the 10 widest pickups was Povich at about $39. Horwitz reached the $20 plateau ($22.63), and everyone else was between $10-20. The only additional players added in more than five leagues who attracted relatively high average winning bids were Heliot Ramos (average of $94 from 8 bids), Max Meyer (average of $48 from 14 bids), Willson Contreras (average $42 from 7 bids), Mitch Garver ($40 from 5 bids), Kodai Senga ($36 from 6), Masataka Yoshida ($34 from 17) and Justin Turner (average $32 from 8).

NFBC Main Event – Most Added this Week: Captain Jack

Winning Bids over $100 and $200

I’m also keeping tabs on players attracting the highest individual FAAB bids. In the 12th run on June 9 (see below), there were just three $200-plus successful bids, and only 10 in the past three weeks. These bids were for Blake Snell, Garrett Crochet and Heliot Ramos. There were also just six winning bids between $100-199, way down from last week’s total of 37. Two winning bids over $100 were for Ramos, with two more for Baltimore rookie Cade Povich. These were joined by one each for Jonathan India and Frankie Montas.

The Wow Bid of the Week: Blake Takes the Cake

The highest overall bid in FAAB Week 12 was for Blake Snell of the Giants. Although currently injured, this was the only Main Event league in which he was a free agent, and our winning bidder (hint, he is leading the Main Event overall standings) added him for a tidy $360 (the seventh-highest Wow bid out of the 12 registered so far in 2024), which beat out the unsuccessful runner-up bid of $239. You can see the reaction of the league-mates below.

The Wow Bids of 2024

• 3/24: Nolan Schanuel $200 (#12)
• 3/31: Jason Foley $479 (#3)

• 4/7: James McArthur $225 (#11)
• 4/14 Brandon Nimmo $578 (#2)
• 4/21 Wilyer Abreu $350 (#9)
• 4/28 Pete Crow-Armstrong $355 (#8)
• 5/5 Christian Scott $677 (Highest)
• 5/12 Taj Bradley $444 (#4)
• 519 Reed Garrett $420 (#5)
• 5/26 Wyatt Langford $248 (#10)
• 6/2 Ben Brown $366 (#6)
• 6/9 Blake Snell $360 (#7)

FAAB Summary: Everything’s Cheap!

In the 12th FAAB week, Main Event owners successfully made 1,594 winning bids (about 10% less than last week) and have now spent about $563 of their $1,000 allocation. This remains significantly lower than the last three years at the 12-week mark – as all three previous years (see below) showed well over $600 spent. However, this year’s Week 12 showed spending of about $28 per team, the same as three years ago (2021) but well below 2022 ($40) and especially 2023 ($65). With on average $437 of FAAB left per team for the last 15 weeks, Main Event owners are still able to aggressively bid over the last 15 FAAB weeks (about $29 left to spend per week). As you can see in the second chart below, we are beyond the normal high spending weeks (usually Week 2 to Week 8), and with all this FAAB still in circulation, I’d anticipate a couple of spike weeks later in the season.

Total Spent: Main Event Through 12 FAAB Periods

• 2024: $563
• 2023: $750
• 2022: $646
• 2021: $649

FAAB Spending Summary 2024

Average Weekly Spending Per Team (21-24):

The Colosseum

Each week during the season, I’ll take a look at the four widest Main Event pickups from three weeks ago and evaluate whether it was a good addition based on the early stats (thumbs up), a bad idea (thumbs down) or simply a push. We’re focusing on the first three weeks after the pickup where players can earn their new owners some good stats (as they are generally in the active lineup) or underperform badly, leading to a drop as the weeks go by.

Three weeks ago, we had our ninth FAAB run, and the above stats were pretty ugly. Miguel Vargas got just 19 at bats, Adam Ottavino blew up and got zero saves in place of Edwin Diaz, Jake Meyers got at bats but slowed considerably from his prior pace (batting .194), and Joe Ross pitched one inning before getting injured. Sadly, we must give all four a thumbs down.

This hurts the Main Event pickup record for 2024, even though it still is relatively strong with 14 thumbs up (39%), 15 thumbs down and 7 pushes, and the thumbs up percentage is about equal to 2023 (44%). This is about the same neighborhood as the 2022 good pickups mark of 39% but better than 2021, which was 24%. However, we don’t want any more 0-for-4 weeks or this could slide back toward 2021 levels.

Colosseum Thumbs Up Record

• 2024 thus far: 39%
• 2023: 44%
• 2022: 39%
• 2021: 24%

2024 Colosseum Thumbs Up Players

Overall Leaderboard: Clark is a Shark

Ladies and Gentlemen, we have a new Main Event leader this week! After what seemed like weeks and weeks of Glenn Schroter (the 2015 overall Main Event champ) dominating the proceedings (for the five of the last six weeks anyway), Clark Olson has taken over at the top. Now if you’re thinking this is good for those chasing the lead, I’d have to tell you that Clark is notoriously good at fantasy baseball and is fully capable of winning this contest. If you’re ever drafting in his league, you can see that he is waiting for any opening, and then he’ll take advantage. In any case, it’s Shark Week – er – Clark Week in the NFBC Main Event!

Main Event Leaders in 2024

So Mr. Olson leads by 55.5 points over his nearest rival. However, The Liberator, Bradley Libros, is still in second and is right on his heels (and he also has a Main Event team ranked #54). In addition, Glenn Schroter is not done yet – he’s solidly in third place. Then there’s the impressive Knute Rockne aficionado Nicholi Knutson, who jumped up from 11th to fourth place this week, and the fresher Eric Drescher, who is holding in fifth. These five players are the only ones currently over 7,000 points. 

Also not really throwing in the towel is previous overall champion Abdulaziz Madani (sixth, up from ninth), Alan Mitchell (who made an strong move from 23rd to seventh), former overall leader Nelson Sousa in eighth, Robert Cramutola, our 2022 Overall Champ in ninth and 15th (wow), plus Star Fantasy Manager Chasin’ Jason Santeiu in 10th and 31st. 

A few other notables in the top 31 (the top 31 are paid an overall prize at the end of the season – see below table) – the very tough guy to get rid of Dave Rhydderch (11th), the magnanimous Brian Magnani (12th), Real Neil Petersen (13th) and winery king Chris Boudreaux (14th).

I also recommend keeping an eye on unpaved road traveler Dustin Wagner (17th), Pull Hitter Robert DiPietro (18th), Matthew Do or Do Not Dugan (21st), David Einhorn (23rd, who claims he invented the term “around the horn” for MLB), the Wardog David DiDonato (29th) and a man at the edge of a cliff, Kyle Brinkmann (30th).

But all 31 of these fantasy managers are in the hunt for sure, and in a big 855-team contest like the Main Event, that’s all you can ask after a couple of months. We’ve reached the two-fifths mark of the season (40.4%), but there’s still plenty of games to be played before October.

Top 31: Main Event 2024

League of Legends

Here are the 57 Main Event leagues with the current top three in the standings as of the morning of June 10!

Top Three: 2024 Main Event League Leaders

Shout-outs

The 24 players listed below account for 25 of the 57 first-place positions (44%) and 53 of the 171 total cashing positions (31%). So far, the most outstanding performance across the Main Events belongs to Jason Santeiu with three, count ‘em, three first-place positions! The next four are not too shabby either: Scott Waggener has two firsts and a second, Robert Cramutola and Alan Mitchell have two firsts and a third, while Dominic Rello has the across-the-board positions of one first, one second and one third!! Congratulations! But see below, as there are several other fantasy managers doing terrific work!

Notables include:

Three first – Jason Santeiu
Two first, one second – Scott Waggener
Two first, one third – Robert Cramutola, Alan Mitchell
One first, one second, one third – Dominic Rello
Three thirds – Dalton Del Don
Two firsts – Bradley Libros, Matthew Dugan
One first; one second – Nelson Sousa, James Maples, Glenn Schroter, Scott Fleming
One first; One third – Dave Rhydderch, Kyle Brinkmann, Bill Gaffney, Philippe Dussault, Clark Olson, Brandon King
Two seconds – Chris Uram, Richard DiMondo
One second, one third – Gregg Martin, Michael O’Brien, Dalton Del Don
Two thirds – Mike Ballschmiede

Good luck in Week 13!