NFL Week 9 FTN Staff Bets
FTN Staff
The new rookie class around the NFL gets all the attention over the summer. They’re the flashy new pieces for fantasy football, and of course they can be anything.
But last year’s rookies aren’t fully formed yet. The players entering their second season aren’t the fancy new thing anymore. That can open up some value in fantasy drafts for players still due to break out, and it can lead to fantasy mistakes for players who had a good first season that turns out to be a mirage. Everyone knows Year 1 to Year 2 is one of the biggest jumps an NFL player can make, but this still happens.
To try to head this off, over the course of the summer we’re going to revisit last year’s rookie class in our Second-Year Scouting Report series, looking at the incoming sophomore NFL players to see what went right in their rookie season, what went wrong, and what we can expect from them going forward.
Jayden Reed, WR, Green Bay Packers
Toward the end of his tenure in Green Bay, Aaron Rodgers was praying for the Packers to draft some wide receivers to help him out. And, of course, in the team’s first season without Rodgers under center, their wide receiver room was as deep as it has been in years.
Go figure.
A huge reason behind the depth was rookie Jayden Reed, who Green Bay selected in the second round of the 2023 NFL Draft. Reed was productive as a rookie, catching 64 passes for 793 yards and eight touchdowns. And at a certain point in the season, a lot of the schemed and manufactured touches were going to Reed.
What Went Right
It’s not every year that you see a second-round rookie wideout serve as the focal point of an NFL passing attack. But for much of the 2023 campaign, that was the case with Reed. Yes, Green Bay ultimately spread the ball around quite a bit. But the schemed touches went to Reed. During his rookie season, Reed caught 64 passes but also added 11 rushing attempts. Head coach and play caller Matt LaFleur has always been a proponent of heavy pre-snap motion, but since Rodgers wasn’t a huge fan of the idea, it hardly materialized during their time together. However, with Rodgers no longer in town, the Packers bumped their usage of motion. In 2022, Rodgers’ final season, Green Bay utilized pre-snap motion 37.9% of the time. However, this past season, that rate jumped up to 54.3%, the sixth-highest rate in the NFL.
Reed benefited from that change.
Remember earlier when we highlighted how often the Packers were scheming touches for Reed? Well a lot of that came on the heels of pre-snap motion. According to FTN Data, Reed was in pre-snap motion a healthy 18.7% of the time, one of the highest rates in the league among qualified wide receivers or tight ends. And whether that resulted in an easy completion or a carry, Reed often touched the football when in motion. With 10 total touchdowns, he showed nothing to dissuade LaFleur and company from continuing to use him in that role. Reed was also very impressive against zone coverage during his rookie year, ranking 15th in yards per route run against the defense (2.39), as well as sixth in touchdowns (3).
What Went Wrong
While Green Bay clearly made an effort to get the ball into Reed’s hands, it also didn’t result in a huge target share. Reed finished with a target share of 17%, which was right next to Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs. But we also saw Dontayvion Wicks come along down the stretch, and when you add the pair of tight ends, there are suddenly a lot of really, really viable pass-catchers in this offense. And if Watson can stay healthy, it is possible we see Reed max out at 5-6 targets per game. In nine games alongside Watson last year, Reed averaged just 4.9 targets, 3.4 receptions and 40.6 receiving yards per game. And although he was still productive, Reed wasn’t exactly a full-time player in his rookie year. Over the course of the season, he ran a route on just 61% of Green Bay’s dropbacks. And during Watson’s healthy weeks (4-13), Reed was operating as the WR3 behind Watson and Doubs.
| Player | Target Share | Air Yards Share |
|---|---|---|
| Romeo Doubs | 18% | 25.7% |
| Christian Watson | 17.6% | 32.2% |
| Jayden Reed | 14.6% | 17.8% |
| Dontayvion Wicks | 8% | 10.3% |
Prognosis Entering 2024
Reed is currently being drafted as the WR1 for Green Bay, coming off the board as a top-35 overall wideout. Given how much Jordan Love spread the ball around, it feels like a wise game plan would be to simply wait and draft Watson, Doubs or Wicks later on, as much as I like Reed. During Watson’s healthy weeks (again, 4-13), Reed ranked third on the team with a 14.6% target share. He’s still going to be the player LaFleur schemes touches for, and I love making bets on talented sophomore receivers who were productive as rookies. What could really unlock his potential, however, is if he sees more downfield usage, which could make up for potential middling volume.
Dynasty Outlook
Look, I like Reed and you have to (incoming pun) love the direction this Green Bay offense is headed. And if you want to hold onto him and trust that he’ll build off a strong rookie campaign, I’m all for it. However, I think you should at least entertain some potential trade scenarios given some of the metrics and usage stats we highlighted. But a talented 24-year-old wide receiver who should be paired with a talented young quarterback for years to come is still very exciting.
