Best MLB Bets Today - Free (Tuesday 5/21)

There are 15 games on the MLB slate for Tuesday, so there’s plenty of action to be had around the diamond. Below you’ll see a list of my favorite MLB picks and MLB props.

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The Best MLB Props + MLB Picks

Javier Assad Over 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed

(-135, DraftKings Sportsbook)

Javier Assad has picked up some buzz in the fantasy baseball community, especially this week, as he’s scheduled for two starts. The Cubs pitcher has a sparkling 1.49 ERA over 48.1 innings as he’s yet to allow more than two runs in any of his nine outings. I’m here to rain on his parade a touch. When you dive deeper into Assad’s numbers, you’ll notice a few red flags. First of all, he has an 85.6% contact rate, which is the highest mark among qualified pitchers (tied with Miles Mikolas). His 87.1% strand rate is extremely high (league average around 70%), especially for a pitcher who has a 7.82 K/9 (21.6 K%) and 6.4% SwStr%. Only five qualified arms have a higher strand rate than Assad and three of them have a higher K rate. Assad also has a ridiculously low .246 BABIP. All of these reasons are why Assad has a 3.94 xFIP compared to a sub-2.00 ERA. In fact, the difference between his 1.49 ERA and 3.09 FIP is the sixth largest negative gap among pitchers with 40-plus innings. His numbers suggest he’s been pretty lucky this season.

Assad gets an Atlanta Braves team he just faced in his last outing, and it went very well for him. The righty struck out seven over six scoreless innings and only gave up four hits. I tend to give the advantage to the hitters when there’s a rematch within a week. On top of that, the wind is blowing out 19 mph to left center at Wrigley Field, and we have a game total of 11.

Left-handed bats have had more success against Assad, so consider Matt Olson for two bases at -111. Olson is off to a very slow start, but he hit his sixth home run of the season Monday and has four multi-hit games in his last seven games, with two bombs over that span. It’s only a matter of time before he gets going and as we creep toward warmer days, I’d expect better games from him. 44 of his 54 home runs and 20 of his 27 doubles last season came against RHP.

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