NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Week 6’s main NFL DFS slate is approaching, and with four teams on a bye, a trio of prime-time games and a game in London, it comes in as the smallest main slate of the season, sporting only 10 games.
As I have every week so far, I will be providing my top five SuperDraft DFS picks for the Sunday slate. If you are unfamiliar with SuperDraft, there is no salary cap. Instead, there are individual score multipliers assigned to every player.
Below are my top five plays on SuperDraft for Week 6.
Taylor Heinicke, QB, Washington Football Team (1.55x score multiplier)
Don’t look now, but Taylor Heinicke has logged three games of at least 23 fantasy points over his last four games as he fills in for the injured Ryan Fitzpatrick. He’s going to be playing from behind quite a bit against the reigning AFC champions as the Football Team comes in as 6.5-point underdogs, giving him a great chance to continue this stretch.
While this game certainly has the potential to get out of hand, the matchup is extremely favorable for Heinicke, especially when having to air it out from behind. As noted in my Thursday-Monday slate picks, the Chiefs currently rank:
- 25th in adjusted completion rate (78.9%)
- 27th in passing TDs allowed (10)
- 28th in passing yards allowed per game (308.6)
Given the lackluster performance by the Chiefs’ secondary so far this season, Heinicke could easily have another game of over 290 passing yards, something that he’s already done twice over the last four weeks with a generous multiplier for a quarterback.
Khalil Herbert, RB, Chicago Bears (2x)
With all of the attention on Damien Williams in the Chicago backfield last week, Khalil Herbert quietly put together an impressive showing operating as the 1B to Williams’ 1A. Per my waiver wire piece on FTN Fantasy:
“It was a near-even split in the backfield, as Herbert actually played three more snaps (34) than Williams, outcarrying him 18-16. He failed to draw a target on his seven routes but finished tied with Williams at 18 touches apiece. Herbert also looked good with the ball, totaling 75 yards on his 18 carries. If Williams was such a hot commodity, shouldn’t Herbert draw the same interest? It’s likely Williams will remain the preferred option in the passing game, but getting a running back with this much upside from an opportunity standpoint is not something to pass on now that it looks like the Bears may deploy a 50:50 split as opposed to handing the backing off to Williams.”
Throw that 50:50 split in the trash. While it’s still possible that Williams makes it back for Sunday, there’s a very high chance that Herbert will be operating as the lead back given the fact that Williams was put on the COVID list on Thursday. While the Packers aren’t an easy defense to run between the tackles on, it’s hard to pass up a 2x-multiplier who’s slated to operate as a lead running back.
Terry McLaurin, WR, Washington Football Team (1.3x)
In my aforementioned Thursday-Monday article, I mentioned how I want to prioritize stacking Heinicke and Terry McLaurin. That rings true on SuperDraft as well, as McLaurin, like his quarterback, has a favorable score multiplier.
McLaurin has been the runaway favorite in the Washington passing game, leading the team with a 29.2% target share, which also ranks him top-five in the entire NFL. He’s seen 10-plus targets in three of his last four games and given a matchup with Mike Hughes (0.42 fantasy points allowed per route), McLaurin could very well capitalize all over the field against this leaky secondary.
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Ja’Marr Chase, WR, Cincinnati Bengals (1.3x)
It’s safe to say that the noise regarding Ja’Marr Chase’s perceived inability to catch has been silenced. Through five weeks, Chase ranks 10th in the NFL in air yards (541), 20th in target share (24.8%) and third among wide receivers with at least 30 targets in average depth of target (15.46 yards). He’s been a healthy combination of reliable volume and monstrous upside and it was all on display in Week 5 against the Packers. In that game, Chase hauled in six of 10 targets for 159 yards (his second 100-yard game of the season) and a touchdown with an average of over 26 yards per reception.
The Packers were a leaky secondary, but Chase gets an even better matchup against the Lions in Week 6. No team has allowed more yards per pass attempt (9.96) than the Lions, who have also allowed the highest aDOT in football (11.42 yards). This game profiles perfectly for the playstyle of Chase and I fully expect more than one game-breaking play from the rookie phenom this weekend.
Hunter Henry, TE, New England Patriots (1.7x)
The tight end position continues to be a wasteland and because of that, I will continue to hunt for tight ends with generous multipliers that haven’t caught up with their role. This week, that tight end is Hunter Henry.
While Jonnu Smith saw a larger role early in the season, Henry has surpassed him in target share (13% to 12%), receiving share (14% to 10%), receiving yards (216 to 115), and air yards (197 to 94). It’s very clear who the true TE1 in New England is. With a 1.7x multiplier against a Dallas defense that bleeds production in the passing game, it’s hard to see Henry as anything less than a rock-solid floor play at the least.
