Dylan Cease DVOA, Advanced Stats, & Fantasy Rankings

MLB Network's Jon Morosi reports that the San Diego Padres are unlikely to trade right-hander Dylan Cease before the start of the 2025 season, despite the fact that he's scheduled to be a free agent after this year. "I just do not think we are going to see a Dylan Cease trade that rescues the Yankees season," Morosi said in response to the fact that Yankees ace Gerrit Cole (elbow) will have season-ending Tommy John surgery. Not only are the Yankees hesitant to add to their payroll at the moment, but they would also be hesitant to give up top prospects such as Jasson Dominguez and Will Warren, who they will be counting on at the major-league level in 2025. The Padres could change their tune on Cease closer to this summer's trade deadline if the Padres are well out of contention, but for now, he appears primed to continue on as SD's ace. Cease's strikeout upside makes him a low-end No. 1/high-end No. 2 fantasy starter.

San Diego Padres right-hander Dylan Cease will make his Cactus League debut on Saturday against the Cincinnati Reds, according to MLB.com's AJ Cassavell. Cease was the subject of trade rumors in the offseason as he heads into the final year of his contract, and although it appears the 29-year-old will stick with the Friars to begin the 2025 regular season, he could get moved closer to the deadline this summer. In his first year with the Padres in 2024 after being acquired in a trade from the Chicago White Sox, Cease went 14-11 with a 3.47 ERA (3.10 FIP), 1.07 WHIP, 224 strikeouts and 65 walks in 189 1/3 innings over 33 starts in the regular season. He has now fanned 200-plus hitters in four straight seasons and also had a career-best 8.5 percent walk rate last year. The ace of San Diego's staff should be viewed as a low-end fantasy ace/high-end No. 2 in 2025.

The Athletic's Dennis Lin writes that the San Diego Padres' four-year, $55 million deal with right-hander Nick Pivetta could increase the chances that the team retains right-hander Dylan Case, at least through the end of spring training. Team and league sources indicated on Wednesday that the Padres are currently inclined to hang on to Cease, who will be a free agent after the 2025 season. Another team could still overwhelm the Padres with a trade offer for Cease, but as things stand now, closer Robert Suarez is much more likely to be traded. Suarez is owed $10 million this year and can opt out after the season. The Padres, who are still looking to trim payroll, think they could still have an effective bullpen if they traded Suarez. But with Joe Musgrove (elbow) out for all of 2025, their need for another proven starting pitcher was much more urgent, which is why they added Pivetta on Wednesday night.