NFL Week 9 FTN Staff Bets
FTN Staff
As the mercury rises and we inch closer to training camp opens, our resident fantasy football aficionados, Brad Evans and Jeff Ratcliffe, profile their favorite books, busts and breakouts for every NFL team. Today’s topic: Mike Tomlin’s Resurrected Blacksmiths
Booms
James Conner, RB
Last year, “The Terminator,” tossed on the scrapheap due to various setbacks, failed to protect Sarah Conner or any of his willing backers. On 57.8% of the opportunity share, he recorded an unexciting 46.4 rush yards per game and 25.1 receiving yards per game. If not for his seven total touchdowns, he would’ve been a steaming pile of uselessness.
Admittedly, Conner was equally lousy under the hood in 2019. He was No. 46 in fantasy points per opportunity and RB37 in yards after contact per attempt (2.75). Still, he forced a missed tackle an impressive 22.0% of his touches. With Ben Roethlisberger back in the saddle and given the Steelers’ likely unyielding defense, he could get back to where he was two seasons ago, a year in which he cranked out double-digit scores and finished inside the RB top-10. And, no, that’s not some far-fetched theory on par with whatever nonsense is coursing through the brain of Michael Porter Jr. Reportedly healthy and motivated, Conner is due for a bounce back. Mike Tomlin is committed to feeding him.
Don’t fret about change-of-pace rookie Anthony McFarland Jr. or snail-slow Benny Snell, Conner (RB19, 35.8 ADP) should command the lion’s share in what will be a vastly improved Steelers offense. You could do far worse at the Round 3-4 turn in 12-team 0.5 PPR leagues. — Brad Evans
JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR
Fantasy hopes were certainly high for Smith-Schuster heading into last season. He was coming off a breakout 2018 campaign and was positioned to be “the guy” with Antonio Brown out of the mix. Well, things didn’t quite work out the way we planned. The season got off to a poor start with an early-season injury to Ben Roethlisberger, and Smith-Schuster was never able to recover.
But I don’t think it’s a good idea to hold last season against Smith-Schuster. Roethlisberger will be back under center and Smith-Schuster remains the top receiving target in what should be one of the league’s highest volume passing games. And the good news is that he won’t have to do it all with Diontae Johnson and James Washington poised to emerge. Smith-Schuster is a prime post-hype sleeper who is very much in the front-end WR2 conversation. — Jeff Ratcliffe
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Busts
JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR
For Devlin Hodges, "Duck" is an appropriate nickname. The wounded passes he tossed in JuJu’s general direction last year made any pixelated NES-era dog rise from the brush and snicker. His absent accuracy is why JuJu ranked a depressing WR85 in catchable target percentage.
Speaking bluntly, Smith-Schuster only has one direction to go after tallying a 42-552-3 line in 12 games, good for WR64 in 0.5 PPR formats. Though his surface numbers made stomachs churn, he ranked appreciably in several underlying categories, including YAC per reception (WR21). Most believe he’ll resemble the player from 2018, but without Antonio Brown around to assist in alleviating pressure can he step up as the main man?
Roethlisberger’s return does signal a new hope. JuJu’s success rates on deep routes last season was horrendous. Still, if the veteran passer isn’t well protected — the Steelers slotted at or near the bottom in pass-blocking measurements in 2019 — downfield opportunities could be few and far between.
Brighter days lie ahead, but investing in JuJu at his WR13 (35.7) ADP is a leap of faith. Adam Thielen and Cooper Kupp are more enticing at a slightly cheaper price point. — Brad Evans
James Conner, RB
A fantasy football cult hero following his breakout 2018 season, Conner entered last year with some hefty expectations. And, well, he failed to deliver. To be fair, some of that was out of his control, namely Roethlisberger being lost for the season to injury in Week 2. Conner also battled his own injuries throughout the season. But by the end of the year, he was being outperformed by the plodding Benny Snell.
Not good.
However, the bigger concern is Conner’s inability to stay healthy, as he missed time in 2018 as well. While I expect him to hold off Snell and rookie Anthony McFarland Jr., the arrow isn’t nearly point up as high for Conner heading into 2020. He’s a volatile RB2 option who could end up disappointing yet again this year. — Jeff Ratcliffe
Breakouts
Diontae Johnson, WR
That buzz you hear isn’t a ticked-off swarm of murder hornets. It’s the building hype emanating from Johnson zealots.
Classified a “sleeper” by some, Johnson is anything but. Going on average around pick No. 87 overall (WR37), he’s a well-known ascending talent. Heck, even your kid sister is familiar.
Rosy outlooks are warranted for the second-year receiver. Last year in an anemic Pittsburgh offense he posted an applaudable 59 receptions for 680 yards and five touchdowns, despite slotting at WR81 in catchtable target rate. Most outstandingly, he generated more separation per target than any other wideout in the league. Crafty after the catch, he ranked WR35 in yards after contact per reception. And he achieved it all slowed by a tender groin.
At full strength and prepared to gain new followers, Johnson is a strong candidate to undergo an ADP transformation over the next few weeks. Any positive news from camp will send his already pricy perceived value skyward. A statistical advancement is likely, but a finish around 68-875-6 seems most likely. Don’t go overboard. — Brad Evans
Diontae Johnson, WR
While he wasn’t one of the highest-profile wideouts in last year’s draft, the Steelers saw something they liked in Johnson and selected him on Day 2. After watching him on the field last year, I think they were on to something.
Despite poor quarterback play for much of the season, Johnson was able to post five top-30 finishes in addition to flashing some major juice on special teams. In the process, he showed a lot of similarities to Antonio Brown in his rookie season. That’s not to say that Johnson is going to be the best wideout of his generation, but he’s certainly intriguing. Add to that Roethlisberger being back under center and we have the makings of a fantasy breakout candidate. — Jeff Ratcliffe
