MLB Best Bets – Free (Wednesday 5/15)

It’s Wednesday in Major League Baseball, which means day baseball throughout the day, as well as a tasty night slate. Below, we’ll be focusing on one of the night games.

As always, odds can fluctuate, so be sure to head over to the Prop Shop to ensure you grab the best possible number.

Framber Valdez Over 18.5 Outs Recorded

(+140, DraftKings Sportsbook)

This is an interesting play, as I generally stay away from the outs recorded market if lined at 18.5 or higher given the current state of starting pitching. Wednesday however, we have an exception. Framber Valdez, Houston’s ace, takes the bump, and if there were ever a day a manager handed the ball to his ace and needed a complete game, or something close to it, it would be here. Tuesday night, Ronel Blanco, who appeared to be on his way to a quality start, was ejected before the start of the fourth inning after it was deemed he was using a foreign substance, thus forcing the Astros to need seven innings out of their bullpen since the game went 10 innings. They needed four innings from four different relievers Monday, as starter Spencer Arrighetti was only able to give them five innings. Sunday, Justin Verlander gave them seven strong innings, but they needed 52 pitches from Seth Martinez to finish out the game. Needless to say, their bullpen is taxed, as you can see in the image below (per Rotowire):

It’s certainly possible a roster move is made to give Houston a fresh arm, but with four relievers having thrown back-to-back days (three of which are generally high leverage arms), Josh Hader coming off two innings Tuesday, and Seth Martinez two days removed from a 52-pitch outing, we should expect very little from this Astros bullpen Wednesday. 

The A’s actually profile decently against lefties, ranking first in ISO, 10th in wRC+ and 11th in wOBA if using active rosters. Looking at game logs for left-handed starters versus Oakland as seen below (per StatMuse), you’ll see that a majority of those lefties have completed six innings and all of those who did, managed to do so in under 100 pitches. We will obviously need Valdez to extend into the seventh to record an out, and I believe he will has a pretty long leash, especially if he’s limiting damage, and when you look at all the names below, Valdez is certainly the best lefty this Oakland lineup will have seen in 2024.