NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Stacking in best ball is not the fantasy football must that some make it out to be, but if done properly it can create an edge for you against your competition. The thought process is rather simple: You stack a QB and WR on the same team and they have correlated outcomes. If you get the receiver right in a given week, his quarterback likely also had a good game.
You can take this to the next level and stack offenses, and then when the team you stack has a high output week you have multiple pieces of that offense that combine for big numbers. This is a successful strategy … when used properly. The biggest key to this strategy is not to reach. You don’t want to draft a QB two rounds too early because you have his receivers — that is mitigating the edge you gain by using the strategy.
(Take advantage of the FTNFantasy Platinum package for the 2021 season!)
Some offenses are highly desired stacks, but tough to pull off, like stacking Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb and Dak Prescott. But stacking Prescott with players like Michael Gallup, Blake Jarwin or Dalton Schultz is much easier to pull off. You don’t just need to stack top players — in fact, stacking players in the late rounds on the same team as your quarterback leads to a higher win rate.
Here are three of my favorite best stacks for the 2021 NFL season.
(Sign up for underdog fantasy and get $25 with promo code FTN)
Stack the Buccaneers in best ball
(Stack options: Tom Brady, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown, Giovani Bernard)
Brady is going to be 44 this season, which is beyond absurd, but he has shown no signs of slowing down, throwing for 40 touchdowns last season, second in football. After starting 7-5, the Bucs went on a run and won the Super Bowl as Brady and company found their rhythm. While Brady doesn’t offer the rushing upside we usually look for, he has the touchdown and yardage upside to mitigate it. Last year, he finished as one of just two quarterbacks in the top 10 with under 200 rushing yards.
The great thing about this stack is the relative cost of an offense that is projected to be top five. In last year’s top six offenses, we see the Packers, Bucs, Bills, Titans, Saints and Chiefs as the top point-scoring teams in football. The Buccaneers are the only team without a player in the top 16 or so of ADP on their roster. In fact, on average, other than the Bills all those teams have at least two players off the board before a single Tampa player is picked. This stack is perfect on the turn where you can take Evans and Godwin in the third and fourth rounds and grab Brady at the end of the ninth. Evans has the weekly upside and year-to-year consistency we look for, while Godwin is just one year removed from being the No. 2 overall receiver in fantasy football. Add in a 15th-round Giovani Bernard, who is going to lead the Bucs running backs in targets — being Tom Brady’s top pass-catching back led to back-to-back top 24 season for James White — and you have a high-powered, affordable stack.
Buy low on Aaron Rodgers in fantasy football
(Stack options: Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams, Marquez Valdes-Scantling)
The closer the season gets, the more it looks like Aaron Rodgers is staying in Green Bay. Last year, the Packers led football in scoring at 31.5 points per game off the back of Rodgers throwing for 48 touchdowns and winning MVP. Yes, he is going to regress this year. No, he probably doesn’t end up as a top-five quarterback again without massive touchdown output due to lack of rushing upside. However, that is all baked into his current cost. Historically speaking, fantasy drafters pay for past production — a losing formula. Rodgers would be going in the fifth or sixth round as players hoped he matched his MVP production. Instead, we can get Rodgers in the 11th round while stacking him with last year’s top fantasy receiver in Davante Adams, a second-round pick due to Rodgers’ uncertainty. This is embracing volatility and buying the unknown — if Rodgers comes back (which I think still happens), you have slam-dunk values on both he and Adams. Adding a Marquez Valdes-Scantling in the 15th or 16th round is the perfect late-round play.
Here is a passage from my piece on how to use air yards to find fantasy football values on Valdes-Scantling:
“While concerns around Aaron Rodgers staying and playing in Green Bay continue, Valdes-Scantling remains nearly free at the end of best ball drafts. He saw 29.5% of his team’s air yard share last year (second on the team) and led all of football with a 16.84-yard aDOT (min. 50 targets). The Packers added Amari Rodgers in the draft, but he is much more of an underneath receiver and shouldn’t impact MVS much. While Valdes-Scantling has the weekly floor of the basement, he put together five top-24 WR performances and is a worthwhile end-of-draft best ball flier due to his big-play ability.”
Believe in Justin Fields – fantasy football 2021
(Stack options: Justin Fields, Allen Robinson, Cole Kmet)
It’s just a matter of time before Justin Fields overtakes Andy Dalton, and I think he will win the job in camp and during the preseason games. Once Fields becomes a starter, he will be a fantasy cheat code. At 6-foot-3 and 226 pounds, running a 4.46-second 40, his legs give him a tremendous weekly floor and ceiling. He will also be the best quarterback Allen Robinson has ever played with. Robinson — who was top five in first read share in the NFL — is the centerpiece of the offense, but has had a problem with quarterbacks missing him time and time again in his career. If his catchable target rate increases, he is currently priced at his floor, not his ceiling. Adding to this stack is the late-round Cole Kmet. Over on FTNBets I recently wagered on Kmet to go over 44.5 receptions this season — here is why:
“Cole Kmet has been outstanding in OTAs, from a piece at the athletic “the ball always seemed to find him, regardless of who was at quarterback.” Kmet came on strong at the end of the season starting in week 12 he played 79% or more of the snaps in the final six games, averaging 5.5 targets per game. Prior to that he failed to have over three receptions in all but one game. His late season emergence is no fluke, the second-round pick from Notre Dame is a good athlete an said to be a fixture in the offense. Robinson, Darnell Mooney, and Kmet were on the field for ‘nearly every play’ with the ones during OTAs. His target share in this offense should maintain his end of season usage which projects out to a 93.5 target season and at his 63.6% catch rate last season would have him projected at 59.5 receptions. While that is likely high as FTN has him projected for 51 receptions, his usage in this offense should dictate more than his 44.5 catch line at Pointsbet sportsbook and at plus money is a good value.”
(Sign up for underdog fantasy and get $25 with promo code FTN)
