Should You Draft Marvin Harrison Jr. or Garrett Wilson in 2024: Fantasy Crossroads

Fantasy football drafts are approaching.

Once the NFL Draft comes to a close, fantasy football drafts take over. We have already seen best ball drafts at the forefront, and before you know it, season-long drafts will follow. One of my favorite series at FTN Fantasy is Fantasy Crossroads, where we debate two players being drafted very close to each other. The 2024 series kicks off with a matchup between a burgeoning third-year wide receiver in New York and a rookie wideout who now resides in the desert. 

So who are you drafting this season? Garrett Wilson or Marvin Harrison Jr.?

Garrett Wilson, WR, New York Jets

The Case for Garrett Wilson

This has to be the year, right? Right?

Don’t get me wrong. Garrett Wilson has had a strong start to his NFL career, posting stat lines of 83-1,103-4 and 95-1,042-3 through his first two seasons. And after dealing with poor quarterback play during his rookie season, it appeared as if Wilson was primed for the most obvious breakout seasons in the league once the Jets acquired Aaron Rodgers. Of course, Rodgers tore his Achilles in Week 1 and Wilson was back to catching passes from backup-level signal-callers. But heading into the 2024 campaign, we should be just as excited for Wilson as we were last offseason. Rodgers will hopefully be healthy, leading to a much, much more potent Jets offense. That’ll certainly help Wilson build off his low touchdown totals over his first two years. 

Fortunately, Wilson has made up for his lack of efficiency and upside with immense volume. Since 2022, only Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill and CeeDee Lamb have seen more targets than Wilson (315). Last season, New York’s offense completely funneled through Wilson and running back Breece Hall, as the duo accounted for over 49% of the team’s receiving yards, as well as 48% of the receptions and 47% of the targets. Wilson saw a whopping 135 first-read targets last year, according to FTN Data, the fourth-most in all of football. With the Jets adding Mike Williams and rookie Malachi Corley this offseason, perhaps Wilson doesn’t repeat his 30% target share from 2023, but he should still see borderline elite volume. And perhaps more importantly, Wilson will be far more efficient. Among players with at least 230 targets over the last two years, Wilson’s  63.1 receiving yards per game ranks sixth-worst in the league. During that same span, Wilson has also ranked 59th and 36th in fantasy points per route run (0.32, 0.39). A huge reason has been a lack of touchdowns, an area Rodgers’ presence will drastically improve this year. 

Over the past two seasons, the Jets have ranked 30th and 26th in red-zone scoring attempts per game, averaging just 2.4 per game during that span. And last year, the Jets averaged just 3.9 points per red zone trip, the fewest in all of football. As a result of playing in a bottom-five offense, Wilson has seen just 18 total end-zone targets through his first two seasons. A huge climb to eight or nine touchdowns is very much in play in 2024.

The Case against Wilson

When we are talking about players who are going to come off the board in the first two or three rounds of fantasy drafts, it is difficult to make many arguments against drafting them. Despite putrid quarterback play over the past two years, Wilson has finished as the WR21 and WR26 in fantasy. I’d expect the efficiency and touchdowns to climb in his third season. The only question mark is how much does the volume drop? Wilson is obviously going to remain the clear WR1 for the Jets, but does he rank top-five in targets, first-read targets and target share again? Maybe, maybe not. Fortunately, the boost in efficiency catching passes from Rodgers should counter a potential drop in volume.

Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Arizona Cardinals

The Case for Marvin Harrison Jr.

I really don’t care that he hasn’t played a down in the NFL yet. Marvin Harrison Jr. is a borderline top-12 fantasy wide receiver.

Harrison is an elite prospect, possessing an incredibly well-rounded skill set. He can play with size and physicality, but also with finesse and suddenness. Everything about what he does on the football field is calculated and intended, especially in his routes. He knows how to attack leverage, and an underrated part of his game is how he seemingly always works back to the football, making defenders exert energy until the play is over. There have been many comparisons to A.J. Green and you can easily see why. Harrison is elite.

Oh yeah. He’s also 6-foot-4, 210 pounds.

He now joins Kyler Murray and the Cardinals, and while the offense isn’t the same as it was a few years ago, Harrison should be in line for immense volume right out of the gate. 30% of Arizona’s targets from last year need to be replaced, and we’ve seen the WR1 for this team command massive target totals. Back in 2020, DeAndre Hopkins posted a 29.4% target share, averaging 10 targets per game. And with Hopkins suspended for the first six weeks of the 2022 campaign, Marquise Brown operated as Arizona’s WR1. During that span, Hollywood averaged 10.7 targets and 7.2 receptions per game, while sporting a 26% target share and 23% target per route run rate. 150 targets as a rookie is not out of the range of outcomes for Harrison. The NFL record for targets by a rookie in a season is 167, done by Terry Glenn back in 1996 with the Patriots. But let’s even be a little conservative, shall we?

At FTN, we have Harrison projected for just under 130 targets this season. There have still only been 11 wide receivers to see at least 130 targets during their rookie seasons. Among those nine wideouts, the average fantasy finish was around WR15, with five players finishing as WR13 or better. We obviously saw what Puka Nacua did this past season, and while it will be tough to repeat what he did, Harrison is as good of a prospect, if not better, than most of the wide receivers on this list. A top-12 fantasy finish is very, very possible in his rookie year.

The Case against Harrison Jr.

The only aspect to not like surrounding Marvin Harrison Jr.’s fantasy potential in 2024 is the perceived value. It is only early May, and Harrison is already coming off best ball draft boards as the WR9, right behind Wilson. So while I absolutely think (and expect) him to finish as a top-15 fantasy wide receiver as a rookie, there also isn’t a ton of value there if you are drafting him as the WR9 anyway. 

I’d also add that while the volume should be special, I do wish this Arizona offense resembled Kliff Kingsbury’s a bit more. From 2019-2021 with Kingsbury calling plays, the Cardinals ranked sixth in early-down pass rate (56.5%). During that same span, Arizona was second in average seconds per snap (25.5) and easily first in no-huddle rate (35.5%). They have been a much slower offense as of late, however.

The Verdict

I see a world where Harrison outscores Wilson this season. No doubt about it. However, the jump in efficiency I expect from Wilson alongside Rodgers has me too excited, especially considering that even if you drop his volume a little bit, he will likely see a few more targets than MHJ anyway. The potential spike in touchdowns really intrigues me, too. Last season, Wilson accounted for almost 36% of the Jets’ targets from inside the 10-yard line, so if he sees anywhere close to that usage in an offense that will get to the red zone more often, he could flirt with double-digit touchdowns. 

I’d love to have both players on my team, but in the first edition of the 2024 Fantasy Crossroads series, give me Wilson.