NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
There are five NHL games Friday, and some of the DFS sites are excluding the Montreal/Calgary bout from their featured contests. Colorado is the largest favorite on the docket, whereas the Golden Knights are receiving significant road chalk. Note the Bruins and Islanders are playing for the second consecutive nights after Boston topped New York 4-1 on Thursday.
Here’s your game-by-game preview for Friday’s action.
All statistics from Natural Stat Trick and Hockey Reference.
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Flames at Canadiens preview
(Line: Canadiens -142)
The Flames extended their winning streak to three games Wednesday with a 4-1 victory over Montreal. Calgary dominated high-danger scoring chances 14-4, and Jacob Markstrom stood tall for his third straight win and stopped 26 of 27 shots. He’s now allowed just three goals through his past three starts with a .957 save percentage and 1.00 GAA. Up front, the new-look trio of Elias Lindholm, Matthew Tkachuk and Johnny Gaudreau drove possession with a 62.1 Corsi For percentage. It’s an intriguing line, and they also all skate together on the No. 1 power-play unit.
Montreal’s been struggling for over two months and strung together consecutive wins just once since early February and enters Friday’s contest with a mediocre 11-12-7 record. Making matters worse, the team is lacking a go-to scorer during the stretch, and Carey Price (upper body) remains sidelined. No .2 netminder Jake Allen has surrendered three goals or more in four of his past five starts to the tune of a 1-4 record, .887 save percentage and 3.26 GAA. Offensively, Montreal hasn’t found an answer since losing Brendan Gallagher (thumb), as Tomas Tatar and Corey Perry are tied for the goal lead with two apiece over five games without Gallagher.
Islanders at Bruins preview
(Line: Bruins -120)
As noted, Boston topped New York 4-1 Thursday, and the Bruins attempted 15 more five-on-five shots and didn’t allow a single high-danger scoring chance all game. They generated 13 of their own. Additionally, Boston’s three top lines all drove possession, and the balanced attack with the addition of Taylor Hall does make the Bruins a much more difficult team to match up against. Keep tabs on Hall’s salary across DFS sites because he’ll likely be a cost-effective target over the coming weeks. Newly acquired defenseman Mike Reilly has also quarterbacked the No. 1 power-play unit the past two games and has potential in the role.
While everything went Boston’s way Thursday, it would be surprising if New York didn’t rebound with a more complete showing Friday. After all, the Islanders have proven to be a high-end club with an active 23-8-2 record and the third fewest goals allowed per game this season. New York probably has the goaltending advantage Friday, too. Ilya Sorokin has won 11 of his past 12 starts with a .928 save percentage and 1.79 GAA, whereas Boston starter Jeremy Swayman has only started four games in his career — albeit with three wins and impressive .926 and 2.21 ratios.
Sharks at Wild preview
(Line: Wild -196)
The Wild have been an elite team at home with a 15-4 record and 3.47 goals per game while allowing just 2.11 against — fourth fewest in the league. Additionally, the Sharks recently swept a two-game miniseries against Minnesota, so there’s added revenge motivation. Plus, the Sharks have lost four of five with 19 goals against, so San Jose is also limping into the unfavorable matchup. With Minnesota allowing the fewest high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes at five-on-five it should prove to be a solid matchup for Cam Talbot to continue his strong stretch. He’s won seven of his past 10 starts with a .932 save percentage and 2.16 GAA.
Offensively, this also checks out as a plus-matchup for Minny. The Sharks have surrendered the third most goals per game in the league, and No. 1 starter Martin Jones has lost three of his past four starts with a discouraging .869 save percentage and 3.84 GAA. It’s probably not ideal to stack too many Wild, though. Kevin Fiala and Kirill Kaprizov have been the two most consistent scorers for the club, and they only skate together with the man advantage. Being creative and pairing one of those two wingers with defensemen Mathew Dumba or Jared Spurgeon could be a sneaky way to have extra exposure to Minnesota.
Kings at Avalanche preview
(Line: Avalanche -330)
The Kings flashed in midseason, but they have faded to the tune of a 7-14-3 record since late February and have quickly become a team to pick on for DFS purposes with 3.25 goals against per game during the noted stretch. Furthermore, there has been no offense to speak of beyond Anze Kopitar’s five tallies and 17 helpers, as Drew Doughty ranks second in points (15) during the run. The Kings have also lost three of four to Colorado this season, so it’s probably best to fade Los Angeles and turn your attention to the Avalanche in DFS.
To start, Devan Dubnyk won his Avalanche debut, and he’s a solid DFS option from the more expensive goalie tier. However, it might be wiser to target Colorado’s No. 1 line of Nathan MacKinnon, Gabriel Landeskog and Mikko Rantanen. MacKinnon has found the scoresheet in 18 of his past 19 games, and the trio have 35 goals and 48 assists during the stretch. Additionally, Cale Makar and Samuel Girard are both candidates to add to a Colorado stack. They rank first and 11th in points per 60 minutes among regular defensemen this season, respectively, after all.
Golden Knights at Ducks preview
(Line: Golden Knights -250)
This is the second-largest mismatch on the docket, and the Golden Knights enter in excellent form. They’ve won five of six with 25 goals for and also beat Anaheim in four of five meetings this season. Vegas has also allowed the fewest goals per game in the league this season while boasting the fourth-best penalty-kill percentage, so with Anaheim scoring the second fewest per game, it’s a high-end matchup for projected Vegas starter Robin Lehner. He’s 6-0-1 with a .931 save percentage and 1.84 GAA since returning from a concussion. With all that in mind, you’re probably turning to the Ducks in DFS at your own risk.
Shifting to Vegas’ offensive options, it’s a solid matchup for the Golden Knights with Anaheim allowing a healthy 3.09 goals per game. Still, it’s been a balanced scoring attack for Vegas of late. It’s worth noting that Tomas Nosek has been sneaky good with 14 points — six goals — through the past 16 games, and he’ll probably fly under the radar. It’s also worth highlighting how strong Shea Theodore has been all season. He ranks fourth in points and second in shot attempts per 60 minutes among all regular defensemen this season. Of course, the top two lines have long-standing chemistry, so stacking either of Max Pacioretty, Mark Stone and Chandler Stephenson or William Karlsson, Reilly Smith and Jonathan Marchessault is also in play.
