Whitestone’s Waiver Watch: NFBC Main Event (4/1)

It’s a brand new baseball season, and for fantasy managers it’s time to see what type of stats result from those draft plans. For those playing in fantasy baseball’s premier contest, the NFBC Main Event, it’s also the start of a long six-month grind.

In the Main Event this year, there are 57 15-team leagues, up from 53 in 2023 and 47 in 2022. And I like to think that all 855 Main Event entries (many fantasy managers have multiple entries, so the total number of people in the contest is significantly less) believe they are in good shape at the outset of the season. Everyone is confident, and no one has been eliminated from finishing first overall in this prestigious contest, very similar to the position of the Oakland Athletics and Colorado Rockies. What will be the 2024 fate of these illustrious franchises?

As the season goes along, some fantasy teams will sustain key injuries, some teams will fall back in their league pack and some teams will surge toward the top. The aim of this weekly article is to follow it all and see if we can pick up information from the roster moves and FAAB pickups of these generally excellent fantasy managers. Some of these moves – I can be confident – will provide insight into what we all should do. Others might be a tad more confusing, but we can always try to ask the question of…

Most Common FAAB Pickups in the Main Event

We have two FAAB runs to go over, because in the NFBC one of the 27 FAABs occurred before the start of the regular season (Sunday, March 24). Since the first Main Event was drafted March 15, it would seem unnecessary to make a great deal of FAAB pickups March 24, but Main Event owners are master tinkerers, so there still were some moves. The top 10 acquisitions March 24 are in the first chart below, and Philadelphia’s Spencer Turnbull was added in the most leagues (11) in response to the fact that he won a rotation spot on a pretty solid ball club. The No. 2 most-added player, Houston’s Ronel Blanco, also won a rotation position late in the spring, and has some buzz around his pitch arsenal. Three other players were added in eight leagues: Yimi García of Toronto, Daniel Hudson of the Dodgers and Jared Triolo of Pittsburgh – as they have potential to garner (respectively) wins and saves (nice first week), and at bats. The big target though — in the six leagues where he was unrostered — was Minnesota’s Griffin Jax. He attracted solid $100-plus winning bids as he is in line to fill in for Jhoan Duran while the Minnesota closer is on the shelf.

The second FAAB run March 31 was more active, as you can see in the chart below. The player added in the most leagues was Oswaldo Cabrera, who is starting at 3B with DJ LeMahieu sidelined and has hit two homers for the NYY in the early going. He generated a high bid of $168 and was added in all 57 Main Event leagues. Much more coveted, though, was Jason Foley of Detroit, as he seems to have the first chair in the closer merry-go-round in the Motor City. He was added in 44 leagues and went for a high of $479. Tyler Freeman checked in third, added in 39 leagues while going for a high of $62 (and a low of $1), as fantasy managers felt he could fill an infield hole. And Emerson Hancock of Seattle was widely added as well, although his high bid of $69 was not overly expensive.

Winning Bids Over $100 and $200

I’ll also keep tabs on the players attracting the most FAAB dollars as well. In the first run March 24, there was just one $200 successful bid (exactly $200 for Nolan Schanuel). However, on March 31 there was much more activity — with 58 winning bids of $200 or more — mostly driven by the 37 spent for Jason Foley and 13 more for Kevin Ginkel. 

The Wow Bid of the Week

So, who attracted the highest single bids of the week? In the first FAAB period before the season began, that someone was Nolan Schanuel at $200. This past Sunday, Jason Foley’s services were won with a very strong $479 bid, which wasn’t fully needed since the runner-up bid in that case was $254.

• 3/24: Nolan Schanuel $200
• 3/31: Jason Foley $479

FAAB Summary

In the first two FAAB weeks, Main Event owners have had 1,770 winning bids (about the same as the first two weeks of last year) and spent about $60 of their $1,000 allocation. Last year approximately $80 was spent in the first two weeks, so Main Event owners are sticking to a budget thus far. The average Main Event winning bid was $31.73 in the most recent period, which was lower than the $35.83 last season. 

The Colosseum

Each week during the season, I’ll take a look at the four widest Main Event pickups from three weeks ago and evaluate whether it was a good addition based on the early stats (thumbs up); a bad idea (thumbs down); or simply a push. The final 2023 total was 39 thumbs up for the season (44%), 36 down (41%) and 13 pushes (15%). So the good pickups were the highest since I’ve been tracking it — compared to the 2022 good pickups mark of 39% and 24% in 2021. Obviously, we don’t have enough time to evaluate the first few pickups yet, but we’ll do so once we hit the three-week mark. Promise!

Overall Leaderboard: She May Seem Unassuming, But…

It’s important to get off to a good start, and these 31 Main Event entrants have done just that (the top 31 Main Event entrants will earn a prize from the overall pool this year in addition to any league prizes awarded). Jenny Butler — an excellent player and FTN Draft Guide guest writer — has vaulted to the early lead (and also has the No. 15 overall team!) and told me confidentially after her draft that she’s looking to go wire to wire this season. Chris Boudreaux has his only Main Event entry in second place overall. I guess you don’t need multiple entries when you’re just good, right Chris? Then there’s the dangerous Steven Weimer in third place (and 14th as well!). I recommend watching out for Steven — he may be quiet, but he always seems to be at the top of the standings. Next we find Nelson Sousa — ostensibly a football guy — in both fourth and 21st places overall! He must have taken a break from his film study of offensive tackles this spring. Rounding out the top five overall is Erik Sviggum, who, like Chris Boudreaux, has just one Main Event entry. These guys are confident, they’re hungry, and they apparently don’t need multiple shots at the big prize to be in the mix. 

You can see the rest of the early top 31 below — there are perennial contenders like Clark Olson, Douglas Gruber (ninth and 27th!), Matthew Davis, Dalton Del Don, Griffin Benger, Robert DiPietro, Jon Stadtmueller, Matt Modica and Jeff Mitseff sprinkled throughout — but maybe it’ll be one of the relative unknowns who will take down the overall prize in 2024? One thing is for sure – even though we all have many weeks to go, it’s great to get off to a terrific start, and that’s what these top 31 have accomplished.

League of Legends

Shout Outs

The 27 players listed below account for 26 of the 57 first place positions (46%) and 61 of the 171 total cashing positions (36%) — great job thus far!
So far the most outstanding performance across the Main Events is Douglas Gruber, who has two first places AND two second places. Congratulations Doug! (Even though you haven’t actually won anything!)

Other notables include:

• Two firsts, one second — Jeff Mitseff; Nelson Sousa
• Three firsts — Steven Weimer
• Three seconds — Michael O’Brien 
• One second; two thirds — Jason Anthony
• Two firsts — Matthew Davis; Jon Stadtmueller; Robert DiPietro; Leonard Ringle
• One first; one second – Dave Rhydderch; Andrew McQuiston; John Pausma; Jenny Butler; Dominic Rello
• One first; One third – Bill Gaffney; Chris Uram; Glenn Schroter; Rick Thomas
• One second; One third – Kyle Brinkmann; Eric Albright; Stephen Prepas; Jody Ryan; David Hinkel
• Two thirds – Daniel Semsel; Abdulaziz Madani

Good luck to all fantasy managers this season.