Best College Basketball Bets Today (Saturday 3/30)

And then there were eight! 

The 2024 NCAA Tournament is down to just eight teams, with four fantastic Elite Eight matchups scheduled over the weekend. The first two games on Saturday feature a close point spread with Alabama a 3.5-point favorite over Clemson, and a larger difference between the freight train UConn Huskies and Illinois.

Let’s take a look at tonight’s best bet for the Elite Eight!

No. 1 Connecticut vs. No. 3 Illinois 

6:09 p.m. ET
Connecticut -8.5 (-110, BetMGM)

Both teams enter tonight’s matchup with strong records against the spread. Illinois is a fantastic  21-13-3 (61.8% ATS), while Connecticut is the 10th-best team against the spread, holding a 25-12 (67.6%) ATS record. The Huskies have also been superb as a betting favorite, currently 25-11 (69.4%) ATS. 

Illinois has the sport’s best offense, ranking first-overall in adjusted-offensive efficiency, per KenPom. They put on a brilliant display against Iowa State in the Sweet 16, scoring 72 points and shooting 54% from the field against the nation’s top defense per adjusted defensive efficiency. However, the key to Illinois’ win over Iowa State was the lack of a consistent post presence for the Cyclones. Robert Jones is their 6-foot-10 center but scored six or fewer points in the last five straight games. Connecticut center Donovan Clingan presents a much harder challenge. The Huskies’ 7-foot-2 center has scored 14 or more points in three of UConn’s last four games, with the most recent blowout win over San Diego State the lone outlier.

As great as UConn is on offense (81.6 PPG), its defense is extremely underrated. The Huskies rank sixth in adjusted defensive efficiency, third in effective field goal percentage allowed and fourth in 2P percentage allowed. Their perimeter pressure should frustrate Illinois, which would necessitate the Illini forcing turnovers for easy baskets. Illinois ranks third-worst in the nation at forcing turnovers, which means Connecticut would need to have a very poor shooting night to open the door for Illinois. The Huskies have too many weapons to have an Iowa State-like offensive performance.

I’m backing the better all-around team in Connecticut to advance to the Final Four. Illinois head coach Brad Underwood has done a remarkable coaching job this season, but this Huskies team is simply too good and too deep to lose to an Illinois team that struggles on defense. 

Pick: UConn -8.5