NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
There are eight evening NHL games included in the featured contests at most DFS sites Saturday. Carolina and Toronto are the only huge favorites with Tampa Bay also receiving notable road chalk. The Minnesota-St. Louis and Los Angeles-San Jose tilts are rematches from Saturday night, and the Blues and Sharks both won handedly. Additionally, the only over/under total at 6.5 is in the Senators-Maple Leafs game.
Here’s a game-by-game look at Saturday’s action for daily and seasonal fantasy lineups.
All statistics from Natural Stat Trick and Hockey Reference.
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Red Wings at Hurricanes preview
(Line: Hurricanes -345)
It’s first versus worst in the Central Division, and the odds highlight how lopsided the matchup is. Detroit is coming off a 7-1 thrashing at the hands of the Predators, whereas Carolina won a tape-measuring matchup against Florida to extend its winning streak to three games, climb atop the division standings and improve to 14-2-3 on home ice. The largest on-ice disparity is the Hurricanes third-ranked Corsi For percentage and Detroit’s third-lowest mark. Additionally, Carolina is almost entirely healthy with three lines capable of scoring, a deep defensive corps and high-end goaltending. The Hurricanes have the league’s best power-play percentage and highest team save percentage at five-on-five.
The Red Wings have the fifth-worst penalty-kill percentage in the league and have surrendered a healthy 3.17 goals per game, so expect Hurricanes skaters to be popular DFS targets. However, it’s probably best to look at mini-stacks or standalone players. Vincent Trocheck and Martin Necas have had success together this season, and Sebastian Aho and Andrei Svechnikov have also clicked for 6.48 goals and 21.35 high-danger scoring chances per hour this year. It’s beginning to be redundant in this space, but it’s nearly impossible to overlook Dougie Hamilton. His 31 points rank sixth among defensemen and his 129 shots lead all of them. With Detroit scoring the second-fewest goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five and second-worst power-play percentage, whoever starts for Carolina is positioned to have a solid showing.
Blackhawks at Blue Jackets preview
(Line: Blackhawks -110)
The Blue Jackets’ current 2-7-1 stretch has them all but out of the playoff race, whereas the Blackhawks are close to following suit with their own active 5-10 run. Chicago is two points back of fourth place in the Central Division, and Dallas is also just three points behind the Blackhawks with three games in hand, so it’s a dire outlook for Chicago and Columbus. For our fantasy purposes, it’s worth noting that neither team has had notable five-on-five success offensively. The Blackhawks rank fourth last in goals per 60 minutes and the Blue Jackets have scored the ninth fewest. Possession is also a weakness with Columbus sporting the second worst Corsi For percentage and Chicago the fourth lowest.
Still, there are some DFS options to consider here. Patrick Kane is third in league scoring, so with Columbus allowing the seventh most goals per game, he and linemate Alex DeBrincat are definitely in play. Additionally, while there’s a wide range of outcomes for netminder Kevin Lankinen, he has a respectable 14-11-4 record, .916 save percentage and 2.77 GAA for the campaign. As noted, the Columbus offense shouldn’t scare anyone. After all, Jack Roslovic has been the Blue Jackets’ most consistent scorer with 27 points through 34 contests, and he was a healthy scratch last week. He has played well with Cam Atkinson for the majority of the season, so the duo is a potential against-the-grain mini stack.
Jets at Canadiens preview
(Line: Canadiens -122)
The Jets topped Montreal 4-2 Thursday, as netminder Connor Hellebuyck continued his strong stretch of play with a 36-save win to improve 6-1-1 with a .947 save percentage and 1.62 GAA through his past eight starts. Additionally, it was Winnipeg’s best players leading the way again, as Mark Scheifele, Nikolaj Ehlers and Kyle Connor all found the scoresheet. While Winnipeg has had its lines in the blender a bit with Blake Wheeler out indefinitely with a concussion, the Scheifele-Ehlers-Connor trio remains the most dangerous. It’s also worth noting that Andrew Copp has been seeing more top-six looks with Wheeler out. Copp is in the midst of a breakout campaign and has 12 points — eight goals — through his past 10 contests, albeit with an unsustainably high 34.8 shooting percentage. Defensemen Logan Stanley is also a developing fantasy candidate to keep in mind as a low-priced flier. He’s collected three points through his past six games.
Turning to the Canadiens, everything sort of begins and ends in goal, as Carey Price (upper body) remains out with an upper-body injury. No. 2 Jake Allen is capable and boasts a rock-solid .919 save percentage and 2.35 GAA. Montreal also remains one of the most complete five-on-five teams in the league with a second-ranked Corsi For percentage and the second-fewest five-on-five goals allowed per 60 minutes, so this projects to be another close game — the Habs won the possession battle Thursday. Finally, with Brendan Gallagher (thumb) out, and Eric Staal still acclimatizing to the club, expect Montreal’s lines to be somewhat fluid until chemistry develops.
Senators at Maple Leafs preview
(Line: Maple Leafs -335)
It’s become commonplace in this space to acknowledge Ottawa’s competitive play. The Senators have topped Toronto three times through seven meetings and played the Maple Leafs tough in almost every game, after all. Still, the Sens are allowing the most goals per game in the league and sport a 26th-ranked penalty-kill percentage and lack the star power to match up night in, night out with the best teams in the league. Ottawa enters Saturday’s tilt with a 4-7-3 record, whereas Toronto is cruising along an 8-0-1 run with just 17 goals allowed. The Maple Leafs are gigantic favorites for a reason.
While there are a number of storylines surrounding the Maple Leafs, Jack Campbell is front and center with a perfect 10-0 record backed by elite ratios: .944 save percentage and 1.57 GAA. He’s also allowed two goals or fewer in eight of the 10 starts and checks out as a high-end DFS option Saturday. Toronto will need to do some line juggling with William Nylander on the COVID-19 protocol list, and Alex Galchenyuk climbed up to the No. 1 line with Auston Matthews and Mitchell Marner, whereas John Tavares, Zach Hyman and Ilya Mikheyev comprised the second trio. It’s amazing how quickly the formidable offense can look lackluster with a single injury. Still, the top line should do damage, and Galchenyuk remains an intriguing low-priced flier. Note, too, there should be some positive offensive regression ahead for Morgan Rielly. He’s been held to just three points through his past nine games.
Lightning at Predators preview
(Line: Lightning -178)
This is a tape-measuring matchup for Nashville, as the Predators are ascending the standings and currently one of the hottest teams in the league with an active 11-2 record. Additionally, the stretch began with a win over Tampa Bay. However, the Lightning still own a 5-1 record with 4.33 goals per game during the season series between the two clubs and check out as one of the most difficult matchups in the league. Tampa Bay has scored the second most goals per game in the league while allowing the eighth fewest. Additionally, the Predators remain riddled with injuries and without key cogs Filip Forsberg (upper body), Matt Duchene (lower body), Ryan Ellis (upper body) and Dante Fabbro (upper body).
Likely further complicating things for Nashville is Juuse Saros’ unsustainable Vezina-level play of late. He’s posted a .964 save percentage and 1.19 GAA during his active 8-2 run, so there’s a degree of statistical correction ahead. Additionally, Nashville’s 28th-ranked penalty-kill percentage draws Tampa Bay’s fourth-ranked power-play percentage — a notable mismatch. The hard thing for DFS purposes is Tampa Bay has a balanced offensive attack, and Steven Stamkos (lower body) is questionable for Saturday’s tilt. Still, Ondrej Palat and Victor Hedman have been about as reliable as you can find. Also notes, Andrei Vasilevskiy may be wearing down. He’s only won three of his past six starts with an uncharacteristically low .914 save percentage and high 3.06 GAA.
Wild at Blues preview
(Line: Blues -108)
The Blues ran all over Minnesota Friday with a 9-1 win and 10 high-danger scoring chances to the Wild’s four. It’s probably best not to read too much into the blowout, but it’s definitely worth mentioning that St. Louis is iced its healthiest lineup in months. This was also the third straight loss for Wild netminder Kaapo Kahkonen and he’s 18 goals with an .839 save percentage during the stretch, so goaltending likely did have a significant impact on the final result — there were a few softies. Still, Minnesota dominated Colorado on Wednesday with an 8-3 win, so chalking up Friday’s loss to the West being competitive at the top is probably the best way to move forward. St. Louis is now just two points out of fourth place with a game in hand, after all.
The Blues will have a tougher time scoring Saturday with Cam Talbot guarding the crease. There have been some peaks and valleys for the veteran along the way, but his 12-6-2 record, .923 save percentage and 2.44 GAA are solid marks, and the Blues score the seventh fewest goals and generate the fourth fewest high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes at five-on-five. Add that Minnesota allows the fourth fewest high-danger chances per 60 at five-on-five, and Saturday could go quite differently for St. Louis. The odds suggest it’ll be a close game, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see a low-scoring affair. Neither team jumps off the page for DFS purposes, but it’s definitely worth noting that St. Louis backup — and likely starter — Ville Husso has a disappointing .883 save percentage and 3.58 GAA through 13 appearances this season.
Oilers at Flames preview
(Line: Oilers -112)
Edmonton is projected to continue rolling out Connor McDavid and Leon Drasaitl at even strength, which presents oodles of problems for opponents. The duo has clicked for 6.61 goals per 60 minutes over the past three seasons, and for 6.81 while sharing the ice with projected linemate Jesse Puljujarvi. McDavid and Draisaitl are nightly options, but Puljujarvi is now worth a long look given his cushy fantasy gig. This should also prove to be a plus-matchup all around for Edmonton. Mike Smith has turned in an 8-1-2 run with a .922 save percentage and 1.35 GAA, and Calgary has lost nine of its past 11 games with just 23 goals scored.
However, if there was ever a game for Calgary to get up for, it’s this one. After all, this will be the eighth meeting between the provincial rivals, and the Oilers have five wins while scoring 4.14 goals per game. One of the biggest issues for the Flames has been Jacob Markstrom’s underwhelming play. He’s allowed three or more goals in seven of his past nine starts en route to an .871 save percentage and 3.76 GAA. Additionally, after ranking 11th in goals saved above average last season, Markstrom ranks 61st this year. Obviously, Johnny Gaudreau and Sean Monahan haven’t been much help with just three combined goals at five-on-five through 17 games since head coach Darryl Sutter was hired March 4.
Kings at Sharks preview
(Line: Sharks -134)
This will be the second game in consecutive nights for these clubs, as the Sharks topped Los Angeles 5-2 Friday. It was a somewhat even game outside of San Jose scoring a shorthanded goal late and adding an empty-net tally to cap off the victory. The Sharks have now won six of the seven meetings between the two clubs and improved to an active 10-6-1 active record. The stretch has San Jose in the playoff hunt and just three points out of third place with two games in hand. Los Angeles, on the other hand, is headed in the exact opposite direction. The Kings were flirting with .500 hockey for the first third of the season but sport a 6-12-3 record dating back to late February. Additionally, LA has surrendered a healthy 3.14 goals per game during the stretch.
It’s important to note both backups will be in goal Saturday, and neither veteran has been particularly strong this season. Devan Dubnyk has only won three games all year with an .898 save percentage and 3.18 GAA, whereas Jonathan Quick sports a 7-8-2, .892 and 2.99 line. Still, there’s not to be overly excited about from either club. Anze Kopitar has cooled off considerably with just four assists through his past nine games, and Evander Kane and Tomas Hertl are the only two Sharks consistently moving the needle.
