NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Gus EdwardsRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 20
Ravens vs. Texans
Right now, Gus Edwards’s rushing yards prop is set at 52.5 yards (-101/-135).
The public has bet the OVER up to 52.5 (-101) after it opened @ 51.5 (-117).
Pros
- With a 9.5-point advantage, the Ravens are overwhelmingly favored in this week’s game, implying much more of an emphasis on running than their normal approach.
- Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Ravens to run on 50.2% of their chances: the highest frequency among all teams this week.
- Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is predicted by the projections to have 137.0 plays on offense run: the most out of all the games this week.
- The weather report calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
- Gus Edwards has averaged 51.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this year, one of the highest marks in the league among RBs (78th percentile).
Cons
- Gus Edwards’s 41.8% Snap% this season conveys an impressive improvement in his offensive usage over last season’s 26.4% rate.
- This year, the porous Houston Texans run defense has conceded a whopping 3.51 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC) to the opposition’s running game: the 25th-biggest rate in the NFL.
- As it relates to the defensive ends’ role in run defense, Houston’s group of DEs has been one of the most skilled this year, grading out as the 4th-best in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
67
Rushing Yards
67
Rushing Yards
