Week 19 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Najee Harris

Najee HarrisRushing Yards

Right now, Najee Harris’s rushing yards prop is set at 60.5 yards (-140/+105).

The public has bet the OVER up to 60.5 (-140) after it opened @ 60.5 (-115).

Pros

The leading projections forecast the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the most run-centric team in the league (in a neutral context) right now with a 45.2% run rate.
In this week’s contest, Najee Harris is anticipated by the model to land in the 88th percentile among running backs with 16.8 carries.
When talking about run support (and the effect it has on all ground game statistics), the O-line of the Pittsburgh Steelers ranks as the 10th-best in the NFL last year.

Cons

The Pittsburgh Steelers may throw the ball less in this game (and hand the ball off more) given that they be forced to start backup QB Mason Rudolph.
The Steelers are a giant 10-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Steelers are anticipated by our trusted projection set to call just 63.0 offensive plays in this contest: the 3rd-fewest among all teams this week.
The lowest number of plays in the league have been run by the Pittsburgh Steelers this year (just 55.8 per game on average).

Projection

THE BLITZ
71
Rushing Yards