Week 19 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Pat Freiermuth

Pat FreiermuthReceiving Yards

Right now, Pat Freiermuth’s receiving yards prop is set at 19.5 yards (-110/-118).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 19.5 (-118) after it opened @ 21.5 (-112).

Pros

The Pittsburgh Steelers may throw the ball less in this game (and hand the ball off more) given that they be forced to start backup QB Mason Rudolph.
The Steelers are a giant 10-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
In this contest, Pat Freiermuth is predicted by our trusted projection set to rank in the 80th percentile among tight ends with 4.4 targets.

Cons

The predictive model expects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 3rd-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 54.3% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Steelers are anticipated by our trusted projection set to call just 63.0 offensive plays in this contest: the 3rd-fewest among all teams this week.
The lowest number of plays in the league have been run by the Pittsburgh Steelers this year (just 55.8 per game on average).

Projection

THE BLITZ
26
Receiving Yards