Week 19 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Isiah Pacheco

Isiah PachecoRushing Yards

Right now, Isiah Pacheco’s rushing yards prop is set at 69.5 yards (+102/-132).

The public has bet the OVER up to 69.5 (+102) after it opened @ 61.5 (-114).

Pros

The Chiefs are a 4.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, likely leading to a rushing game script.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is expected by the predictive model to have 132.0 total plays run: the 3rd-most out of all the games this week.
Windy weather conditions (like the 18-mph being projected in this game) generally mean decreased passing effectiveness, reduced air volume, and higher run volume.
In this contest, Isiah Pacheco is predicted by the projection model to place in the 97th percentile when it comes to running backs with 18.6 rush attempts.
In regards to blocking for ball-carriers (and the importance it has on all ground game metrics), the O-line of the Chiefs profiles as the best in the league last year.

Cons

Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Chiefs to run on 38.7% of their opportunities: the 4th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.

Projection

THE BLITZ
86
Rushing Yards