Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
D.J. MooreReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Bears vs. Lions
Right now, D.J. Moore’s receiving yards prop is set at 70.5 yards (-125/-105).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 70.5 (-105) after it opened @ 75.5 (-115).
Pros
- At a -3-point disadvantage, the Bears are underdogs in this week’s game, implying more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their standard game plan.
- In this game, D.J. Moore is predicted by the projections to finish in the 88th percentile when it comes to wideouts with 8.0 targets.
- D.J. Moore has accrued a whopping 94.0 air yards per game this year: 91st percentile among wide receivers.
- D.J. Moore’s 78.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive volume) ranks among the best in the NFL: 99th percentile for wideouts.
- D.J. Moore has accumulated quite a few more adjusted receiving yards per game (78.0) this season than he did last season (49.0).
Cons
- Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Bears to pass on 48.2% of their plays: the 2nd-lowest rate among all teams this week.
- Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Bears are expected by the projection model to run only 61.8 total plays in this contest: the fewest on the slate this week.
- When talking about pocket protection (and the influence it has on all passing game statistics), the offensive line of the Bears profiles as the 9th-worst in the league this year.
- The Detroit Lions pass defense has been quite strong when opposing wideouts have gotten into space, conceding an average of 2.82 yards-after-the-catch this year: the fewest in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
66
Receiving Yards
66
Receiving Yards
