Week 13 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Pat Freiermuth from EV Insight

Pat FreiermuthReceiving Yards

Right now, Pat Freiermuth’s receiving yards prop is set at 36.5 yards (-120/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 36.5 (-120) after it opened @ 31.5 (-110).

Pros

The predictive model expects the Steelers to run the 7th-most total plays on the slate this week with 66.0 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics.
Our trusted projections expect Pat Freiermuth to accumulate 4.9 targets in this game, on balance, putting him in the 88th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
Pat Freiermuth’s 64.5% Adjusted Catch% this season shows an impressive drop-off in his receiving talent over last season’s 67.8% figure.

Cons

This week’s spread implies a running game script for the Steelers, who are favored by 6.5 points.
Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Pittsburgh Steelers to pass on 53.2% of their plays: the 2nd-lowest rate among all teams this week.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 9th-fewest plays in football this year, totaling a measly 55.6 plays per game.
The weather report calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
Opposing QBs teams have been disinclined to pass too much against the Arizona Cardinals, totaling the 6th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 33.3 per game) this year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
30
Receiving Yards