UFC 295 MMA Betting Odds (11/11)

The UFC stage was set for perhaps one of the greatest heavyweight matchups ever. But Jon Jones is injured, and his matchup with Stipe Miocic will have to wait until the new year. Now, Tom Aspinall and Sergei Pavlovich, two up-and-coming heavyweights, look to set the stage and become interim champion while Jones heals up.

But that’s just the co-main event, as the main event is set in Jones’ old weight class, the light heavyweight division, as Alex Pereira looks to make history and collect his second belt in three years and become champion of a new division. Standing in his way is former light heavyweight champion Jiri Prochazka, who vacated his belt earlier last year before he was set to defend it in a rematch against Glover Texeira. Also fighting for the fifth time this year, Jessica Andrade steps into the octagon again, looking to break a three-fight losing streak against a star on the rise, Mackenzie Dern. We get to witness the God of War out of France take on the God of War of Long Island when Benoit Saint-Denis takes on Matt Frevola in a clash that will create fireworks. Kicking off the main card are grapplers Diego Lopes and Pat Sabatini, as both athletes look to build off their recent wins and improve their win streaks.

There are 13 fights on the card this weekend — below, I’ve broken down the main card from a betting perspective. All odds are per BetMGM.

Pereira vs. Prochazka

Alex Pereira -125, Jiri Prochazka +105

“Poatan” Pereira is in his second year with the UFC. Since joining the promotion, he’s been a wrecking ball and on a mission. He first took out Israel Adesanya, a rival in the kickboxing world and one of the reasons Pereira climbed the ranks so fast in the UFC. The rivalry was perfect for PPV, and with Pereira becoming champion and then losing the belt back to Adesanya in dramatic fashion, it instantly shot Pereira into superstardom. Now Pereira moved up a weight class, looking to become champion again. He has been a double champion in kickboxing and now looks to do the same in the MMA world. Standing in his way is former light heavyweight champion Prochazka.

Prochazka has been in the UFC since 2020 but has been a professional on the Rizin scene since 2015. Prochazka is a massive athlete with an awkward karate style that utilizes movement and counter striking. He has been stunned in all of his fights so far in the UFC, but his opponents have not been able to put the nail in the coffin. Prochazka averages 5.77 significant strikes landed per minute, is accurate on 55% of his strikes and attempts 0.68 takedowns per 15 minutes. My concern for Prochazka is that he absorbs nearly the same amount of damage he puts out. He absorbs 5.40 significant strikes per minute, and against a fighter like Pereira, it doesn’t take many significant strikes to go down. Styles make fights, and in this fight, I will have to go with the cleaner striker. Pereira averages 5.11 significant strikes landed per minute, is accurate on 62% of strikes he throws and defends 51% of strikes thrown his way.

To beat a striker like Periera, you must be perfect or withstand the power and not tire. Prochazka may not tire, and he won’t be perfect because of his style, which leaves him open to damage, so testing his will and durability against Periera will be the biggest challenge. This is Prochazka’s first fight back after a significant injury and surgery. Poatan has already fought this year and has been training with Glover Texeira, who fought Jiri and almost beat him. There will be violence and a newly crowned Interim Light heavyweight champion. His name is Alex Poatan Pereria. 

Bet: Alex Periera ML -115 | Periera by KO/TKO or decision -125

Aspinall vs. Pavlovich Odds

Tom Aspinall -120, Sergei Pavlovich +100

Aspinall is 6-1 in the UFC and 13-3 overall as a professional fighter. Since joining the UFC in 2020, he has averaged a fight time of two minutes and 19 seconds. The only fighter with a similar fight time is actually Pavlovich, who averages two minutes and 23 seconds of fight time. This is an opportunity of a lifetime for both athletes, as they were not scheduled to fight. Pavlovich was a backup for the original main event, and when Jon Jones got injured, Aspinall got the call and Pavlovich stepped up.

There isn’t much tape to study when both fighters have been wrecking balls in the UFC. Pavlovich averages less than three minutes of fight time, nearly nine significant strikes landed per minute and defends 75% of takedown attempts. He’s also accurate on 49% of strikes and defends 57% of strikes coming his way. Pavlovich has two significant advantages in this fight — one is that he’s been training stateside this entire camp and didn’t need to travel, and two, he’s had a camp, and Aspinall has had two weeks to train and travel across the world for this fight.

Considering their fight times, one could say that a gas tank or a whole camp isn’t needed, but with stakes such as these, every edge is required. For Aspinall, his advantage comes in his movement, accuracy and ability to grapple. Aspinall averages nearly eight significant strikes landed per minute, attempts almost four takedowns per 15 minutes and defends 100% of takedowns coming his way. He is also deadly accurate, connecting on 66% of strikes thrown, and he defends well, only absorbing 2.90 significant strikes per minute.

Similar to the main event, from a betting perspective, I will side with the cleaner striker. Pavlovich has a reach advantage, but he doesn’t seem to use it much because of his berserker style of striking. He also says he can wrestle but averages zero takedowns per 15 minutes. for Tom to be successful, he will have to test his grappling against Pavlovich and use his movement and defensive boxing to steer clear of the power shots and land the cleaner strikes. Pavlovich has not needed to use his grappling as he’s won all fights by knockout so far, but in his only loss in the UFC, once he was put on his back, he didn’t look good. If Tom can dump the big Russian on his back on Saturday, I see this fight ending early in the first or second round. Both athletes’ gas tanks will be tested, and because Pavlovich likes to brawl often, I say he tires first and gives the opening to Aspinall to capitalize. 

Bet: Tom Aspinall ML -120 | Aspinall in Rounds 1, 2 or 3 +100

Dern vs. Andrade Odds

Mackenzie Dern -200, Jessica Andrade +170

In her last fight against Angela Hill, Dern showed her most complete fight. She was accurate, fast and powerful, knocking Hill down three times. She looked composed and sure of herself. Something that she lacked at the beginning of her UFC run. The daughter of a jiujitsu legend, Dern has never been far from the limelight. She’s a world-renowned jiujitsu black belt and, since transitioning to MMA, has leaned on her toughness to get her past the growing pains of MMA. Dern has been with the UFC since 2020 and instantly made a statement, taking Ashley Yoder to a split decision and submitting Amanda Cooper in the same year.

She seemed to hit the ceiling when she fought good strikers who could defend takedowns, but after every loss so far, she has bounced back with a win. She has only lost in the UFC octagon, and with every performance, she evolves more and more into a complete MMA fighter. She has a sharp jab that creates avenues for her takedowns, and she’s also improved her strength, which helps her with takedowns because, in the past, she would just let opponents take her down. Dern is an ace on the ground and doesn’t need many opportunities to close the show. Dern averages 13:30s of fight time, 3.36 significant strikes landed per minute and attempts 0.81 takedowns per 15 minutes. She also has a three-inch height and one-inch reach advantage in this fight. Her reach may not make a difference, but being bigger than Andrade will help when they get into grappling exchanges. Andrade is going through her second three-fight losing streak of her career and will fight for the fifth time in 2023 Saturday night.

Not many athletes, man or woman, have fought five times in a calendar year. Andrade is set to make history inside the most historic building in the world, Madison Square Garden. Andrade has been a staple in women’s MMA and, in the UFC, has been part of multiple weight classes. She has been a champion before and has fought everyone there is to fight, so now she has become the gatekeeper. Dern has struggled with good strikers in the past, and while I do believe Andrade is powerful, she is also too predictable, and her overhand right can be seen coming a mile away. She also utilizes takedowns in her fights, and that’s an avenue I’m not sure she wants to explore with Mackenzie. Andrade has been knocked out and subbed twice in her last three fights; unless she has evolved in three months, I can’t see her having much success. She can put Dern to sleep with a punch, but Dern has proven to be durable and tough to kill with her newfound striking prowess and ever-evolving game.

I’m excited to see what new tools she brings to the octagon to add to her already lethal jiujitsu game. The pick is for Dern to get it done by submission or decision. 

Bet: Mackenzie Dern by submission or decision -165 | Dern/Andrade over 1.5 rounds -150

Frevola vs. Saint-Denis Odds

Matt Frevola +187, Benoit Saint-Denis -222

Perhaps the most exciting fight Saturday night outside the co and primary event is the matchup between Saint-Denis and “SteamRolla” Frevola. Frevola is currently on a three-fight win streak that revived his career after almost being cut in 2021 after back-to-back losses. Frevola welcomed Genaro Valdez to the UFC in 2022 with a bang and hasn’t looked back since. Every step of the way during this run, Frevola has been presented with one formidable opponent after another. After Valdez, he fought Ottman Azaitar and finished him within five minutes. Then he took on Drew Dober and survived a firefight to emerge victorious again. All three of his recent wins have come in the first round, and this fight against Saint-Denis will certainly end inside the distance as the Frenchman, like Frevola, doesn’t like judges getting involved.

Saint-Denis has only been to one decision in his professional career, and one fight that ended in the third round. Every fight besides those two has ended within two rounds. The God of War fights with almost godlike durability, being able to withstand a significant amount of damage and walk through his opponents. Saint-Denis averages 5.59 significant strikes landed per minute, is accurate on 52% of strikes thrown, and attempts nearly five takedowns per 15 minutes. He also has a two-inch height and reach advantage over Frevola, which can help during striking exchanges and takedown attempts.

Frevola can also wrestle and attempt 2.26 takedowns per 15 minutes, but he lacks the takedown defense required to stop Saint-Denis from mounting any offensive grappling. Frevola is accurate on 36% of takedown attempts and defends 44%. Frevola has struck lighting lately, but his matchups have also been favorable up to this point. Against Genaro Valdez, he was welcoming a rookie to the octagon, and if he loses there, Frevola is for sure cut from the UFC. Then, in the follow-up fight against Azaitar, Azaitar had been away from the UFC for two years, and his timing and durability paid the price. Drew Dober was his biggest test to date, and one could argue that up until that point, Dober had taken too much damage in a short time having fought three wars in 2022.

Whatever the case, anything can happen in a fight, and Frevola has been on an excellent run that is about to end abruptly. Frevola is a natural brawler, and no matter how clean he tries to fight, he always ends up in a brawl. This time, he’s up against a bigger, stronger, and more durable version of himself. Saint-Denis and Frevola are the same fighter, yet Denis has the better fight iq, wrestling prowess, and ability to finish. Across the board, Saint-Denis has Frevola covered, and outside of a wild punch that lands for Frevola, I can’t see this going any other way but for Benoit Saint-Denis. He gets the job done inside the distance Saturday night. 

Bet: Benoit Saint-Denis in Rounds 1 or 2 -110 | Saint-Denis/Frevola under 1.5 rounds -130 

Lopes vs. Sabatini Odds

Diego Lopes -104, Pat Sabatini -116

Lopes enters his third fight in the UFC against another grappler and exciting fighter, Sabatini. Lopes is coming off his first UFC win in under 90 seconds against Gavin Tucker earlier this year. Lopez has been on the cusp of joining the UFC for years and was called up earlier this year against Movsar Evolov. Making his third appearance in 2023, Lopez is not resting on his laurels and is looking to take full advantage of his UFC contract and opportunities. Not many fighters fight three times in their first year, but the Brazilian is about action, and this fight against Sabatini is a perfect test for him to showcase his skills.

Lopes is a grappler first and a striker second, but overall, he is exciting and well-rounded. If you want an example of his style, you can see it on full display against Gavin Tucker, who fell victim to Lopes after landing in a flying triangle submission. Lopes also has power and doesn’t look to start slowly in fights. 36% of his wins have come by knockout, 55% by submission and 9% by decision. Lopes averages 8:56 of fight time, 2.12 significant strikes landed per minute, and defends 33% of takedown attempts coming his way. The stat that stands out to me is the nearly six submission attempts Lopes has per 15 minutes. Once the fight hits the ground, he immediately begins to hunt submissions.

Sabatini came into the UFC with high hopes and a well-rounded game based on wrestling and jiujitsu. Like Lopes, he doesn’t average a high significant strike output but averages nearly four takedowns per 15 minutes. Sabatini’s problem is that while he does attempt submissions, he sometimes focuses more on control, and it takes a toll on his gas tank. Sabatini has lost fights because of his gas tank, and in a grapple-heavy battle like this, I expect his gas tank to be tested. Sabatini also has had durability issues once his gas tank goes, and with Lopes having power, I wouldn’t be surprised if he ends up stunning Sabatini and finding a TKO finish. It would seem like a set-up fight for Sabatini to continue to build off his last win, but Lopes is proven and will be more than a challenge for Sabatini. From a betting perspective, I can see Sabatini having some success early but eventually will get swept or caught in a submission that turns the tide or ends it quickly. 

Bet: Diego Lopes ML -105 | Lopes/Sabatini over 1.5 rounds -175