Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Lamar JacksonPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Ravens vs. Browns
Right now, Lamar Jackson’s passing yards prop is set at 205.5 yards (-110/-120).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 205.5 (-120) after it opened @ 210.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Ravens boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to skew 3.4% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is forecasted by the projection model to have 130.4 total plays called: the 2nd-most out of all the games this week.
- The Baltimore offensive line ranks as the 2nd-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all passing game metrics across the board.
- Lamar Jackson’s 216.0 adjusted passing yards per game this year indicates a noteworthy boost in his passing prowess over last year’s 191.0 rate.
- Lamar Jackson’s 72.4% Adjusted Completion% this season conveys a significant improvement in his throwing precision over last season’s 62.9% mark.
Cons
- This game’s line indicates a running game script for the Ravens, who are favored by 6 points.
- Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Baltimore Ravens to pass on 50.1% of their downs: the lowest frequency among all teams this week.
- The leading projections forecast Lamar Jackson to throw 29.7 passes in this week’s game, on average: the fewest among all QBs.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 27.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Browns defense this year: fewest in football.
- Opposing offenses have passed for the fewest yards in the NFL (just 158.0 adjusted yards per game) against the Browns defense this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
192
Passing Yards
192
Passing Yards
