NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Rachaad WhiteRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Bills vs. Buccaneers
Right now, Rachaad White’s rushing yards prop is set at 45.5 yards (+106/-145).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 45.5 (-145) after it opened @ 49.5 (-113).
Pros
- The Buccaneers feature a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Dave Canales, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to tilt 4.6% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- The projections expect Rachaad White to total 14.1 rush attempts in this contest, on average, placing him in the 82nd percentile when it comes to running backs.
- After comprising 33.7% of his team’s carries last season, Rachaad White has been called on more in the rushing attack this season, currently comprising 56.2%.
- Rachaad White has rushed for substantially more adjusted yards per game (44.0) this year than he did last year (30.0).
- The Buffalo Bills defense has had the 4th-worst efficiency against opposing ground games this year, giving up 5.22 adjusted yards-per-carry.
Cons
- At a -9.5-point disadvantage, the Buccaneers are massive underdogs in this game, implying much more of a focus on throwing than their normal game plan.
- Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Buccaneers to run on 38.6% of their chances: the 8th-lowest clip on the slate this week.
- The leading projections forecast the Buccaneers to run the 7th-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.5 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have called the 10th-fewest plays in football this year, averaging a measly 56.3 plays per game.
- The Tampa Bay offensive line profiles as the 5th-worst in the NFL last year at blocking for rushers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
58
Rushing Yards
58
Rushing Yards
