Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Stefon DiggsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Bills vs. Buccaneers
Right now, Stefon Diggs’s receiving yards prop is set at 86.5 yards (-131/-104).
The public has bet the OVER up to 86.5 (-131) after it opened @ 85.5 (-117).
Pros
- At the moment, the 3rd-most pass-oriented offense in football (67.7% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Bills.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 38.5 pass attempts per game versus the Buccaneers defense this year: 9th-most in the league.
- This week, Stefon Diggs is anticipated by the projections to secure a spot in the 97th percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 10.5 targets.
- Stefon Diggs’s 33.2% Target Rate this season marks a noteable improvement in his pass game workload over last season’s 28.0% mark.
- After accruing 104.0 air yards per game last season, Stefon Diggs has been rising this season, now averaging 135.0 per game.
Cons
- An extreme running game script is implied by the Bills being a giant 9.5-point favorite this week.
- Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is predicted by the predictive model to see just 125.9 offensive plays called: the 5th-lowest number out of all the games this week.
- Stefon Diggs’s 2.91 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year reflects a meaningful decline in his efficiency in the open field over last year’s 4.1% rate.
Projection
THE BLITZ
87
Receiving Yards
87
Receiving Yards
