Week 7 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Michael Mayer from EV Insight

Michael MayerReceiving Yards

Right now, Michael Mayer’s receiving yards prop is set at 20.5 yards (-145/+106).

The public has bet the OVER up to 20.5 (-145) after it opened @ 20.5 (-121).

Pros

The Raiders will be forced to use backup QB Brian Hoyer in this week’s contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
Opposing teams have averaged 37.5 pass attempts per game against the Chicago Bears defense this year: 9th-most in the league.
The model projects Michael Mayer to be a much bigger part of his offense’s pass attack in this week’s contest (11.2% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (5.9% in games he has played).
The Las Vegas O-line profiles as the 2nd-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong influence on all passing game stats across the board.
Michael Mayer checks in as one of the most efficient pass-catchers in the NFL among tight ends, averaging a terrific 9.78 adjusted yards-per-target this year while ranking in the 96th percentile.

Cons

The leading projections forecast the Raiders as the 5th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 54.0% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Las Vegas Raiders are forecasted by the predictive model to call just 60.0 total plays in this game: the fewest on the slate this week.
The 6th-lowest number of plays in the league have been run by the Raiders this year (a lowly 54.2 per game on average).
The Bears pass defense has performed very well when opposing TEs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 3.25 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 4th-fewest in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
21
Receiving Yards