Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Matthew StaffordPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Rams vs. Steelers
Right now, Matthew Stafford’s passing yards prop is set at 262.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 262.5 (-110) after it opened @ 265.5 (-110).
Pros
- Our trusted projections expect the Rams as the 5th-most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 61.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- As far as a defense’s effect on tempo, the Los Angeles Rams defense has allowed opposing teams to play 10th-quickest in the league (context-neutralized) this year at 27.01 seconds per snap.
- Still weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being called for in this game) generally correlate with better passing efficiency, increased touchdown potential, increased pass volume, and lower run volume.
- This week, Matthew Stafford is expected by the projections to have the 6th-most pass attempts out of all QBs with 36.7.
- Matthew Stafford’s 265.0 adjusted passing yards per game this year shows a a remarkable gain in his passing prowess over last year’s 220.0 mark.
Cons
- This week’s line indicates a running game script for the Rams, who are favored by 3 points.
- When it comes to protecting the quarterback (and the influence it has on all pass game metrics), the O-line of the Rams grades out as the 7th-worst in football this year.
- Matthew Stafford’s passing precision has declined this season, with his Adjusted Completion% decreasing from 65.3% to 59.8%.
- Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 4th-lowest clip in the league versus the Steelers defense this year (62.2% Adjusted Completion%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
273
Passing Yards
273
Passing Yards
