Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Pat FreiermuthReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Rams vs. Steelers
Right now, Pat Freiermuth’s receiving yards prop is set at 21.5 yards (-114/-114).
Pros
- At a -3-point disadvantage, the Steelers are underdogs in this week’s game, indicating more of a reliance on passing than their usual approach.
- The leading projections forecast the Pittsburgh Steelers to call the 8th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 65.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- In this contest, Pat Freiermuth is anticipated by the projections to finish in the 88th percentile among TEs with 5.1 targets.
- This year, the shaky Rams defense has been torched for a colossal 68.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing TEs: the 2nd-worst in football.
- The Los Angeles Rams pass defense has displayed weak efficiency against tight ends this year, surrendering 8.89 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 3rd-most in football.
Cons
- The 7th-fewest plays in the NFL have been called by the Pittsburgh Steelers this year (only 54.6 per game on average).
- Pat Freiermuth has accumulated quite a few less air yards this season (22.0 per game) than he did last season (50.0 per game).
- With a RATE1-RATE2 point diminishment in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that weighs high-value offensive usage) from last season to this one, Pat Freiermuth has been used much less in his offense’s air attack.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers O-line grades out as the 3rd-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful influence on all passing game stats across the board.
- Pat Freiermuth has notched a lot fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (15.0) this season than he did last season (49.0).
Projection
THE BLITZ
33
Receiving Yards
33
Receiving Yards
