Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Brian RobinsonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Giants vs. Commanders
Right now, Brian Robinson’s rushing yards prop is set at 62.5 yards (-131/-104).
The public has bet the OVER up to 62.5 (-131) after it opened @ 61.5 (-115).
Pros
- With a 3-point advantage, the Commanders are favored in this week’s game, indicating more of a reliance on running than their usual approach.
- The model projects Brian Robinson to earn 14.6 rush attempts in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 87th percentile when it comes to RBs.
- After taking on 52.4% of his team’s rush attempts last season, Brian Robinson has had a larger role in the running game this season, now making up 63.1%.
- This year, the feeble Giants run defense has yielded a staggering 152.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to opposing offenses: the 3rd-most in the NFL.
Cons
- The Washington Commanders feature a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to lean 13.0% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
- Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Commanders to run on 39.9% of their plays: the 8th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
- Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Washington Commanders are projected by the predictive model to call only 63.0 offensive plays in this game: the 8th-lowest number on the slate this week.
- When it comes to run-blocking (and the importance it has on all ground game metrics), the offensive line of the Washington Commanders ranks as the 6th-worst in the league last year.
- Brian Robinson’s 48.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this season represents a a meaningful diminishment in his running prowess over last season’s 63.0 mark.
Projection
THE BLITZ
63
Rushing Yards
63
Rushing Yards
