Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Terry McLaurinReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Giants vs. Commanders
Right now, Terry McLaurin’s receiving yards prop is set at 58.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- The Washington Commanders feature a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to lean 13.0% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
- The model projects the Commanders to be the 8th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 60.1% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
- The predictive model expects Terry McLaurin to garner 7.7 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 82nd percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
- Terry McLaurin’s 54.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive usage) ranks him among the best in football: 81st percentile for wideouts.
- The Washington offensive line ranks as the 5th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
Cons
- With a 3-point advantage, the Commanders are favored in this week’s game, indicating more of a reliance on running than their usual approach.
- Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Washington Commanders are projected by the predictive model to call only 63.0 offensive plays in this game: the 8th-lowest number on the slate this week.
- Opposing quarterbacks teams have been reluctant to lean on the pass against the Giants, totaling the 3rd-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 29.5 per game) this year.
- After totaling 88.0 air yards per game last year, Terry McLaurin has seen a big downtick this year, now sitting at 80.0 per game.
- Terry McLaurin has put up significantly fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (57.0) this year than he did last year (67.0).
Projection
THE BLITZ
60
Receiving Yards
60
Receiving Yards
