Week 7 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Evan Engram from EV Insight

Evan EngramReceiving Yards

Right now, Evan Engram’s receiving yards prop is set at 41.5 yards (-108/-127).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 41.5 (-127) after it opened @ 41.5 (-115).

Pros

Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to pass on 61.1% of their downs: the 5th-highest clip on the slate this week.
Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Jaguars are expected by the projection model to call 67.1 plays on offense in this game: the most among all teams this week.
The 5th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Jaguars this year (a whopping 62.3 per game on average).
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Evan Engram ranks as one of the top pass-game TEs this year, averaging a remarkable 46.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 93rd percentile.

Cons

This year, the stout Saints defense has conceded a mere 35.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing tight ends: the 6th-fewest in football.
The New Orleans Saints pass defense has surrendered the 5th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (63.1%) versus tight ends this year (63.1%).
The New Orleans Saints linebackers grade out as the 8th-best unit in football this year in covering receivers.

Projection

THE BLITZ
54
Receiving Yards