Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Chris OlaveReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Saints vs. Jaguars
Right now, Chris Olave’s receiving yards prop is set at 63.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 63.5 (-115) after it opened @ 61.5 (-118).
Pros
- Our trusted projections expect the Saints as the 7th-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 59.8% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The projections expect this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 133.1 plays, given the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
- The Saints have called the 4th-most plays in football this year, totaling a staggering 63.7 plays per game.
- The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may decline.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 41.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Jaguars defense this year: 2nd-most in the league.
Cons
- The New Orleans O-line ranks as the 5th-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a negative influence on all pass game stats across the board.
- Chris Olave’s 56.9% Adjusted Completion% this season signifies a a remarkable drop-off in his pass-catching talent over last season’s 60.1% mark.
- Chris Olave comes in as one of the bottom wide receivers in the league at generating extra yardage, averaging a measly 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while ranking in the 1st percentile.
- When it comes to cornerbacks in covering receivers, Jacksonville’s CB corps has been phenomenal this year, ranking as the best in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
82
Receiving Yards
82
Receiving Yards
